Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


August Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data  impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Expectations for future US interest rate cuts get dialed back - JPY impact</li>
<li>CFTC data shows speculative froth has come out of some markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data  impacting our investment themes or outlook
Expectations for future US interest rate cuts get dialed back - JPY impact
CFTC data shows speculative froth has come out of some markets


Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

<ul>
<li>Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or a trend change?</li>
<li>A short-term bounce in the USDJPY will provide an opportunity to reposition</li>
<li>Industrial metals take the brunt of the unwind in the commodity sector</li>
</ul>


Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or a trend change?
A short-term bounce in the USDJPY will provide an opportunity to reposition
Industrial metals take the brunt of the unwind in the commodity sector


Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 2

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Japan perks up as machine tool orders rise y/y for the first time in nearly 19 months</li>
<li>US Interest Rate cut expectations rise to a “sure thing” in September</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events impacting our investment themes or outlook
Japan perks up as machine tool orders rise y/y for the first time in nearly 19 months
US Interest Rate cut expectations rise to a “sure thing” in September


United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

August Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...

Rikki Malik

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 2

In summary, we expect the unwinding of JPY shorts to continue driving more volatility in markets providing opportunities in certain sectors. The...

Rikki Malik

Overview #6 - Japanese Data Perks Up.

Recent events show Japan's economy improving with machine tool orders rising, while US interest rate cut in September is now highly expected.

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

August Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

​Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...

Rikki Malik

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 2

In summary, we expect the unwinding of JPY shorts to continue driving more volatility in markets providing opportunities in certain sectors. The...

Rikki Malik

Overview #6 - Japanese Data Perks Up.

​Recent events show Japan's economy improving with machine tool orders rising, while US interest rate cut in September is now highly expected.

Rikki Malik

Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...

Recent events show Japan's economy improving with machine tool orders rising, while US interest rate cut in September is now highly expected.