Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)</li>
<li>Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)
Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.


More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review at how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review at how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


March Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>Gold prices have staged a convincing long-term upside breakout against a backdrop of skepticism, which is contrarian bullish.</li>
<li>Point and figure charts indicate a measured objective of 2576 over a probable 6–18-month time horizon and a measured objective of 3372 over a probable 3–5-year time frame.</li>
<li>Gold mining stocks are cheap relative to gold and could offer even more upside potential on an intermediate- and long-term basis.</li>
</ul>


Gold prices have staged a convincing long-term upside breakout against a backdrop of skepticism, which is contrarian bullish.
Point and figure charts indicate a measured objective of 2576 over a probable 6–18-month time horizon and a measured objective of 3372 over a probable 3–5-year time frame.
Gold mining stocks are cheap relative to gold and could offer even more upside potential on an intermediate- and long-term basis.


<ul>
<li>If you are concerned about the YOLO and FOMO frenzy in the stock market, you may wish to consider gold and gold mining stocks as refuges.</li>
<li>The technical pattern for gold is constructive, but not unabashedly bullish. </li>
<li>Gold miners appear to be washed out against gold and present the best opportunity for gains in the next 6–12 months.</li>
</ul>


If you are concerned about the YOLO and FOMO frenzy in the stock market, you may wish to consider gold and gold mining stocks as refuges.
The technical pattern for gold is constructive, but not unabashedly bullish. 
Gold miners appear to be washed out against gold and present the best opportunity for gains in the next 6–12 months.


Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As warned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/newcrest-newmont-merger-fancy-index-shenanigans" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113359" rel="noopener">Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans</a> in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.</li>
<li>We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won't be obvious to everyone. </li>
<li>There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.</li>
</ul>


As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won't be obvious to everyone. 
There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.


Newmont's Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy $XLE $RSPG, Utilities $XLU, and Gold Miners $GDX $GDXJ $AEM $RGLD $EGO $SA $IAG; Rally Broadening Out; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

March Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio

Rikki Malik

The Stealth Breakout You May Have Missed

Gold prices have staged a convincing long-term upside breakout against a backdrop of skepticism, which is contrarian bullish.

Cam Hui

Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy

If you are concerned about the YOLO and FOMO frenzy in the stock market, you may wish to consider gold and gold mining stocks as refuges.

Cam Hui

Newmont's Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

Newmont (NEM AU) will be a big sell in the March S&P/ASX index rebalance with A$1.5bn to sell and a likely ASX20 index deletion to come because...

Travis Lundy

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