Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025</li>
<li>Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative</li>
<li>Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key</li>
</ul>


Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025
Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative
Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key


Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dundee Precious Metals  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dundee-precious-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42245:1" rel="noopener">Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)</a>'s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.</li>
<li>Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.

Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)'s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>The index changes for the December 2025 review will be based on the data on the close of 28th November 2025 and announced after the close of 12th December 2025.</li>
<li>We expect 2 ADDs for December 2025 review, with one-way flow of US$1.9bn.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
The index changes for the December 2025 review will be based on the data on the close of 28th November 2025 and announced after the close of 12th December 2025.
We expect 2 ADDs for December 2025 review, with one-way flow of US$1.9bn.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We have discussed weekly since 10/14/25 how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as SPX holds above the 3-month uptrend, coinciding with the 50-day MA; this remains true.</li>
<li>Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) held above $358-$361 and $41.70 supports and appear ready to resume their long-term uptrends. Recently discussed we were buyers in our October 29th report</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We have discussed weekly since 10/14/25 how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as SPX holds above the 3-month uptrend, coinciding with the 50-day MA; this remains true.
Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) held above $358-$361 and $41.70 supports and appear ready to resume their long-term uptrends. Recently discussed we were buyers in our October 29th report


Upside Ahead for Gold and Silver; DXY Below $100.25; SPX Holding at 3+ Month Uptrend Support

Equity Bottom-Up

China Bluechemical Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sentiment has started to wobble in the AI mega cap trade</li>
<li>Risk is elevated as bearish divergences  and rolling tops abound</li>
<li>No top yet signalled in the major US indices -  so what to do in this environment </li>
</ul>


Sentiment has started to wobble in the AI mega cap trade
Risk is elevated as bearish divergences  and rolling tops abound
No top yet signalled in the major US indices -  so what to do in this environment 


Overview #40 – Trouble in Paradise: Cracks in the AI Trade

United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

The Federal Reserve plans to cut rates three times in 2024 and a total of 175bps by end 2025, keeping policy accommodative. BOJ remains loose....

Rikki Malik

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

DPM Metals could be added in Dec, while Zijin Gold should miss inclusion. Recent stock moves over have shrunk the capping trade. Estimated 1-way...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date

We see US$3.8bn of flows for the December rebalance with two ADDs. The impact will be somewhat limited across the ADDs but a couple of names will...

Travis Lundy

Upside Ahead for Gold and Silver; DXY Below $100.25; SPX Holding at 3+ Month Uptrend Support

More Upside Ahead for Gold $GLD and Silver $SLV Following Oct. 29 Buys; $DXY Below $100.25 a Risk-On Signal; Downgrading Services to Market Weight;...

Vermilion Research

Overview #40 – Trouble in Paradise: Cracks in the AI Trade

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent negative newsflow in the AI sector and potential...

Rikki Malik

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