Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of 2025 performance for the major asset classes and sectors we follow</li>
<li>An outline summary of our current 2026 investment  ideas and themes</li>
<li>We make some changes in the allocations between commodity sectors</li>
</ul>


A review of 2025 performance for the major asset classes and sectors we follow
An outline summary of our current 2026 investment  ideas and themes
We make some changes in the allocations between commodity sectors


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We remain BULLISH on gold for the long term; however, price corrections will depend on shorter-term trends in geopolitical factors, central bank buying, and buyer exhaustion. </li>
<li>The strong support for the price of gold comes from rapidly declining real rates and global currency debasement.  These underlying trends coupled with safe haven demand drive the recent surge.</li>
<li>ETFs have become the largest source of demand for gold in 2025 at over 50%.  Gold held by central banks is increasing as dollar FX reserves have declined since 2020.</li>
</ul>


We remain BULLISH on gold for the long term; however, price corrections will depend on shorter-term trends in geopolitical factors, central bank buying, and buyer exhaustion. 
The strong support for the price of gold comes from rapidly declining real rates and global currency debasement.  These underlying trends coupled with safe haven demand drive the recent surge.
ETFs have become the largest source of demand for gold in 2025 at over 50%.  Gold held by central banks is increasing as dollar FX reserves have declined since 2020.


Commodities

<ul>
<li>The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market</li>
<li>Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal</li>
<li>A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets</li>
</ul>


The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market
Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal
A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets


2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We have discussed weekly since 10/14/25 how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as SPX holds above the 3-month uptrend, coinciding with the 50-day MA; this remains true.</li>
<li>Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) held above $358-$361 and $41.70 supports and appear ready to resume their long-term uptrends. Recently discussed we were buyers in our October 29th report</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We have discussed weekly since 10/14/25 how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as SPX holds above the 3-month uptrend, coinciding with the 50-day MA; this remains true.
Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) held above $358-$361 and $41.70 supports and appear ready to resume their long-term uptrends. Recently discussed we were buyers in our October 29th report


Upside Ahead for Gold and Silver; DXY Below $100.25; SPX Holding at 3+ Month Uptrend Support

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

<ul><li>During the third quarter of 2025, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy returned 36.1% net of fees, bringing our YTD returns to 41.5% net of fees.</li><li>Gross-of-fees gains from the long book were 35.9% and short book gains were 0.73%.</li><li>The Real Assets strategy has now been running for 27 quarters, and this was our best quarter to date, bringing our since-inception annualized net-of-fees returns to 14.6%.</li></ul>

During the third quarter of 2025, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy returned 36.1% net of fees, bringing our YTD returns to 41.5% net of fees.Gross-of-fees gains from the long book were 35.9% and short book gains were 0.73%.The Real Assets strategy has now been running for 27 quarters, and this was our best quarter to date, bringing our since-inception annualized net-of-fees returns to 14.6%.

United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

Major 2026 Investment Themes

A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.

Rikki Malik

Gold: DON'T MELT YOUR JEWELRY YET!

Gold is reacting to the Fed's decision to ease monetary policy substantially with a renewed QE program. The sizeable $40B monthly purchases...

David Mudd

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Why a basket of commodity producers provide a good risk reward for any portfolio looking to get a real return. Underowned and unloved!

Rikki Malik

Upside Ahead for Gold and Silver; DXY Below $100.25; SPX Holding at 3+ Month Uptrend Support

More Upside Ahead for Gold $GLD and Silver $SLV Following Oct. 29 Buys; $DXY Below $100.25 a Risk-On Signal; Downgrading Services to Market Weight;...

Vermilion Research

Third Quarter 2025 Letter to Investors

During the third quarter of 2025, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy returned 36.1% net of fees, bringing our YTD returns to 41.5% net of fees.

Massif Capital Research

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52-week Range

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Major 2026 Investment Themes

​A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.

Rikki Malik

Gold: DON'T MELT YOUR JEWELRY YET!

Gold is reacting to the Fed's decision to ease monetary policy substantially with a renewed QE program. The sizeable $40B monthly purchases...

David Mudd

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Why a basket of commodity producers provide a good risk reward for any portfolio looking to get a real return. Underowned and unloved!

Rikki Malik

Upside Ahead for Gold and Silver; DXY Below $100.25; SPX Holding at 3+ Month Uptrend Support

More Upside Ahead for Gold $GLD and Silver $SLV Following Oct. 29 Buys; $DXY Below $100.25 a Risk-On Signal; Downgrading Services to Market Weight;...

Vermilion Research

Third Quarter 2025 Letter to Investors

During the third quarter of 2025, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy returned 36.1% net of fees, bringing our YTD returns to 41.5% net of fees.

Massif Capital Research

A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.