Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold</li>
<li>We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)</li>
<li>Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold
We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)
Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)


Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).


Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eq-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14984:1" rel="noopener">EQ Resources (EQR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> at the close on 18 September.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.7% and in a round-trip trade of US$514m.</li>
<li>Other passive index trackers will be buying significant size in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eq-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14984:1" rel="noopener">EQ Resources (EQR AU)</a> and smaller size in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> at the same time.</li>
</ul>



EQ Resources (EQR AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close on 18 September.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.7% and in a round-trip trade of US$514m.
Other passive index trackers will be buying significant size in EQ Resources (EQR AU) and smaller size in Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) at the same time.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Multiple Flows for the Adds

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Rare Earth and Strategic Metals Index (largest ETF is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a>) announced results Friday. 3 ADDs, No DELs. Capping.  </li>
<li>We see US$411mm to trade one-way and 9.6% turnover across the index.</li>
<li>There's a fair bit of capping and 5 names have more than 1 day of ADV to sell because of that.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Rare Earth and Strategic Metals Index (largest ETF is VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)) announced results Friday. 3 ADDs, No DELs. Capping.  
We see US$411mm to trade one-way and 9.6% turnover across the index.
There's a fair bit of capping and 5 names have more than 1 day of ADV to sell because of that.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Rare Earth & Strategic Mtls Jun26 Rebal; 3 ADDs, 10.3% T/O, $445mm 1-Way

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianyou-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44886:1" rel="noopener">Lianyou Metals (7610 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanxiang-advanced-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30188:1" rel="noopener">Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elevra-lithium-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1589:1" rel="noopener">Elevra Lithium (ELVR US)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> in June.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and in a round-trip trade of US$840m.</li>
<li>All the adds have moved higher with huge price spikes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianyou-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44886:1" rel="noopener">Lianyou Metals (7610 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanxiang-advanced-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30188:1" rel="noopener">Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH)</a> recently.</li>
</ul>



Lianyou Metals (7610 TT), Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH) and Elevra Lithium (ELVR US) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) in June.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and in a round-trip trade of US$840m.
All the adds have moved higher with huge price spikes in Lianyou Metals (7610 TT) and Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH) recently.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade

United States

VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF is an exchange-traded fund in the USA. The Fund seeks to replicate the performance of the MVIS Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index. The constituents include a majority of mining companies domiciled in the US, China, and Australia. The Fund rebalances the holdings on a quarterly basis and market cap weights them.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Major Breakout Above $630 Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling $REMX $TMC $MP $BTQ $IONQ $RGTI $IONQ $QUBT...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Multiple Flows for the Adds

There are 2 adds in Sep. The constituent, float, capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.7% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Rare Earth & Strategic Mtls Jun26 Rebal; 3 ADDs, 10.3% T/O, $445mm 1-Way

The MV Global Rare Earth and Strategic Metals Index has picked up AUM in the past few years. Now at US$4.3bn. This rebal is US$800mm+ to trade and...

Travis Lundy

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade

There are 3 adds for REMX in June. The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Major Breakout Above $630 Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling $REMX $TMC $MP $BTQ $IONQ $RGTI $IONQ $QUBT...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Multiple Flows for the Adds

There are 2 adds in Sep. The constituent, float, capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.7% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Rare Earth & Strategic Mtls Jun26 Rebal; 3 ADDs, 10.3% T/O, $445mm 1-Way

The MV Global Rare Earth and Strategic Metals Index has picked up AUM in the past few years. Now at US$4.3bn. This rebal is US$800mm+ to trade and...

Travis Lundy

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade

There are 3 adds for REMX in June. The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Multiple Flows for the Adds

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade