Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on China.</li>
<li>Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.  </li>
<li>Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.  </li>
</ul>


U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on China.
Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.  
Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Outlook &amp; Guidance- Revenue: NT$23.7–24.7bn( down 9.5~5.7% QoQ); Gross Margin: 34–37%; Operating Margin: 15–18%; USD/TWD Assumption: 29.5</li>
<li>Weaker demand from China due to subsidy tapering in 3Q25, but seasonal stocking in non-China markets.</li>
<li>2025 foldable penetration estimated at ~1.6% (~19mn units); Large foldables: higher internal display resolution and ASP; OLED TDDI advantage: fewer components, more space-efficient, enabling thinner phones. </li>
</ul>


3Q25 Outlook &amp; Guidance- Revenue: NT$23.7–24.7bn( down 9.5~5.7% QoQ); Gross Margin: 34–37%; Operating Margin: 15–18%; USD/TWD Assumption: 29.5
Weaker demand from China due to subsidy tapering in 3Q25, but seasonal stocking in non-China markets.
2025 foldable penetration estimated at ~1.6% (~19mn units); Large foldables: higher internal display resolution and ASP; OLED TDDI advantage: fewer components, more space-efficient, enabling thinner phones. 


Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected; Weaker Demand from China Due to Subsidy Tapering.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Outlook (based on USD/TWD = 28.7): Wafer Shipments: +7–9% QoQ; ASP: +1–3% QoQ; Gross Margin: 25–27%.</li>
<li>Revenue Mix (Industrial, Auto, 3C): Industrial + Automotive: 40%+ (majority industrial; automotive in teens) ; Communication &amp; Computing: 20%+ each ; Consumer: 10%+.</li>
<li>2025 Dividend Policy : Will maintains NT$4.5 per share dividend.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Outlook (based on USD/TWD = 28.7): Wafer Shipments: +7–9% QoQ; ASP: +1–3% QoQ; Gross Margin: 25–27%.
Revenue Mix (Industrial, Auto, 3C): Industrial + Automotive: 40%+ (majority industrial; automotive in teens) ; Communication &amp; Computing: 20%+ each ; Consumer: 10%+.
2025 Dividend Policy : Will maintains NT$4.5 per share dividend.


Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is planning to scale back its presence in the gallium nitride (GaN) market to focus on high-growth areas.</li>
<li>To meet customer demand, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> has recently been reallocating resources away from mature process nodes.</li>
<li>We estimate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/navitas-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36294:1" rel="noopener">Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS US)</a> alone consumes over half of TSMC’s GaN capacity each month, making it TSMC’s largest GaN customer.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is planning to scale back its presence in the gallium nitride (GaN) market to focus on high-growth areas.
To meet customer demand, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) has recently been reallocating resources away from mature process nodes.
We estimate that Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS US) alone consumes over half of TSMC’s GaN capacity each month, making it TSMC’s largest GaN customer.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Halts GaN Production at Fab 5, Shifting to Advanced Packaging.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s 1.4nm Technology Delay Highlights Potential That Intel Could End Up the Only Viable Alternative to TSMC -- Maintain Structural Long for TSMC</li>
<li>Micron Results Today Will Provide Insight Into Resilience of AI/HPC Equipment Demand</li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot </li>
</ul>


Samsung’s 1.4nm Technology Delay Highlights Potential That Intel Could End Up the Only Viable Alternative to TSMC -- Maintain Structural Long for TSMC
Micron Results Today Will Provide Insight Into Resilience of AI/HPC Equipment Demand
TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

Taiwan

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

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Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.

President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China leads to a sharp drop in U.S. stocks amid escalating trade tensions.

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected; Weaker Demand from China Due to Subsidy Tapering.

3Q25 outlook: Revenue down 9.5-5.7% QoQ, weaker China demand but seasonal stocking in non-China markets. 2025 foldable penetration estimated at...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

Positive outlook in 3Q25 with increased wafer shipment, higher ASP, and steady gross margin. Revenue mix shows strong industrial and automotive...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Halts GaN Production at Fab 5, Shifting to Advanced Packaging.

TSMC is shifting focus away from the gallium nitride market to prioritize high-growth areas, reallocating resources to meet customer demand....

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

Samsung's 1.4nm technology delay could make Intel the only viable alternative to TSMC, while Micron's results will show the resilience of AI/HPC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.

​President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China leads to a sharp drop in U.S. stocks amid escalating trade tensions.

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected; Weaker Demand from China Due to Subsidy Tapering.

​3Q25 outlook: Revenue down 9.5-5.7% QoQ, weaker China demand but seasonal stocking in non-China markets. 2025 foldable penetration estimated at...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

​Positive outlook in 3Q25 with increased wafer shipment, higher ASP, and steady gross margin. Revenue mix shows strong industrial and automotive...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Halts GaN Production at Fab 5, Shifting to Advanced Packaging.

TSMC is shifting focus away from the gallium nitride market to prioritize high-growth areas, reallocating resources to meet customer demand....

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

​Samsung's 1.4nm technology delay could make Intel the only viable alternative to TSMC, while Micron's results will show the resilience of AI/HPC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China leads to a sharp drop in U.S. stocks amid escalating trade tensions.

3Q25 outlook: Revenue down 9.5-5.7% QoQ, weaker China demand but seasonal stocking in non-China markets. 2025 foldable penetration estimated at...

Positive outlook in 3Q25 with increased wafer shipment, higher ASP, and steady gross margin. Revenue mix shows strong industrial and automotive...

Samsung's 1.4nm technology delay could make Intel the only viable alternative to TSMC, while Micron's results will show the resilience of AI/HPC...