Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q25 Shipment estimates are up 8-10%. The ASP is expected to decrease by 4-6% QoQ and the gross margin. GM is projected to be 29-31%, showing a 1.3% increase QoQ. </li>
<li>The worldwide inventory level is currently healthy. Automotive inventory levels are improving, and Vanguard anticipates moderate growth in the semiconductor industry for 2025.</li>
<li>VSMC's construction will proceed according to the current plan. The project is currently slightly ahead of schedule. Sampling is planned for 2026, with mass production expected to begin in 2027.</li>
</ul>


1Q25 Shipment estimates are up 8-10%. The ASP is expected to decrease by 4-6% QoQ and the gross margin. GM is projected to be 29-31%, showing a 1.3% increase QoQ. 
The worldwide inventory level is currently healthy. Automotive inventory levels are improving, and Vanguard anticipates moderate growth in the semiconductor industry for 2025.
VSMC's construction will proceed according to the current plan. The project is currently slightly ahead of schedule. Sampling is planned for 2026, with mass production expected to begin in 2027.


Vanguard (5347.TT): In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. The Current Inventory Is Healthy.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus &amp; Dell</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix &amp; Micron's HBM DRAM Growth? </li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. </li>
</ul>


PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus &amp; Dell
Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix &amp; Micron's HBM DRAM Growth? 
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) / Equity Bottom-Up

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.</li>
<li>China's semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> shares have benefited from this trend.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> benefits from China's announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.
</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.
China's semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) shares have benefited from this trend.

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) benefits from China's announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

<ul>
<li>Usually, the 1st quarter of each year should show a decline for foundry companies, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a>'s 1Q25 results could be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a>'s demand for Display Driver IC (DDIC) is on the rise, surpassing the growth seen in Power Management IC (PMIC).</li>
<li>Despite the potential increase in shipments in 1Q25, the rise in lower-margin products, such as 8" DDICs for large panels, is notable.</li>
</ul>


Usually, the 1st quarter of each year should show a decline for foundry companies, but Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'s 1Q25 results could be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter.  

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'s demand for Display Driver IC (DDIC) is on the rise, surpassing the growth seen in Power Management IC (PMIC).
Despite the potential increase in shipments in 1Q25, the rise in lower-margin products, such as 8" DDICs for large panels, is notable.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) 1Q25 demand has surged abruptly, with a likely 5% quarter-over-quarter shipment increase.  </li>
<li>China's substantial demand is capable of supporting a Fabless leader like Novatek.  </li>
<li>The unexpected demand surge in 1Q25 has greatly benefited Novatek .  </li>
</ul>


Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) 1Q25 demand has surged abruptly, with a likely 5% quarter-over-quarter shipment increase.  
China's substantial demand is capable of supporting a Fabless leader like Novatek.  
The unexpected demand surge in 1Q25 has greatly benefited Novatek .  


Novatek (3034.TT): Rush Orders Received and Beneficial from Chinese Household Electronic Demand.

Taiwan

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

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Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)

Vanguard (5347.TT): In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. The Current Inventory Is Healthy.

In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. GM projected to increase 1.3% QoQ. Worldwide inventory healthy. VSMC construction on track, sampling in...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Also: Performance of Snapdragon, AMD, and Intel in the PC monitor market; potential challenges for SK Hynix and Micron in the memory monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

HSTECH advances with good market breadth in January. SMIC is benefiting from AI advances as well as the localization trend in semi industry. ...

David Mudd

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 1Q25 results may defy industry trends with flat performance, driven by rising demand for Display Driver ICs over...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Rush Orders Received and Beneficial from Chinese Household Electronic Demand.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) experiences a sudden surge in demand in 1Q25, likely leading to a 5% increase in shipments, supported by...

Patrick Liao

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Vanguard (5347.TT): In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. The Current Inventory Is Healthy.

In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. GM projected to increase 1.3% QoQ. Worldwide inventory healthy. VSMC construction on track, sampling in...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Also: Performance of Snapdragon, AMD, and Intel in the PC monitor market; potential challenges for SK Hynix and Micron in the memory monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

HSTECH advances with good market breadth in January. SMIC is benefiting from AI advances as well as the localization trend in semi industry. ...

David Mudd

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 1Q25 results may defy industry trends with flat performance, driven by rising demand for Display Driver ICs over...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Rush Orders Received and Beneficial from Chinese Household Electronic Demand.

​Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) experiences a sudden surge in demand in 1Q25, likely leading to a 5% increase in shipments, supported by...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 1Q25 results may defy industry trends with flat performance, driven by rising demand for Display Driver ICs over...

Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) experiences a sudden surge in demand in 1Q25, likely leading to a 5% increase in shipments, supported by...