Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales, but GM upside 1% QoQ.   </li>
<li>Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and automotive applications are ongoing.  </li>
<li>Specifically speaking, in 2Q24 we expect to see a revival in demand, with QCOQ and MPS potentially beginning to place orders in Fab 5.</li>
</ul>


1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales, but GM upside 1% QoQ.   
Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and automotive applications are ongoing.  
Specifically speaking, in 2Q24 we expect to see a revival in demand, with QCOQ and MPS potentially beginning to place orders in Fab 5.


Vanguard (5347.TT):  1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

<ul>
<li>The utilization rate for Vanguard in 1Q24F is at a recent low of 50-53%, indicating that the utilization rate is expected to increase from 2Q24 onwards.  </li>
<li>Vanguard should consider building a new 12" Fab in Singapore, aligning with our potential acquisition of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s 40nm and above business.</li>
<li>In conclusion, the future outlook appears promising for the coming 3~4 years.  </li>
</ul>


The utilization rate for Vanguard in 1Q24F is at a recent low of 50-53%, indicating that the utilization rate is expected to increase from 2Q24 onwards.  
Vanguard should consider building a new 12" Fab in Singapore, aligning with our potential acquisition of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s 40nm and above business.
In conclusion, the future outlook appears promising for the coming 3~4 years.  


Vanguard (5347.TT): A Consensus View to Build a New 12" Fab in Singapore.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> revenue growth target for 2024F is set at 25% or higher.</li>
<li>TSMC's dominance in the CoWoS market, with nearly 100% share, positions them well.</li>
<li>TSMC's plans to establish a new Fab in Chiayi, Taiwan, reflect the growing end demand.  </li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) revenue growth target for 2024F is set at 25% or higher.
TSMC's dominance in the CoWoS market, with nearly 100% share, positions them well.
TSMC's plans to establish a new Fab in Chiayi, Taiwan, reflect the growing end demand.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F.

<ul>
<li>We anticipate that the guidance upper limit for 1Q24F results may be reached.  </li>
<li>The outlook is expected to see approximately a 10% QoQ increase in 2Q24F.  </li>
<li>The recent stock market performance may reflect enthusiasm for Vanguard, despite temporary disregard for the name.</li>
</ul>


We anticipate that the guidance upper limit for 1Q24F results may be reached.  
The outlook is expected to see approximately a 10% QoQ increase in 2Q24F.  
The recent stock market performance may reflect enthusiasm for Vanguard, despite temporary disregard for the name.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Could Be the Recent Bottom, and 2Q24F Should Be an Upside 10% QoQ.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>4Q23 surpassed the guidance for revenue, GM, and OPM. 4Q23 EPS reached NT$8.76, compared to NT$10.46 in 3Q23 and NT$6.64 in 4Q22.</li>
<li>1Q24F is typically the traditional low season for consumer electronics, and there are fewer working days during the Lunar New Year.</li>
<li>It is expected that the dividend payout ratio this year will be similar to previous years, which has been higher than 80% in the past few years.</li>
</ul>


4Q23 surpassed the guidance for revenue, GM, and OPM. 4Q23 EPS reached NT$8.76, compared to NT$10.46 in 3Q23 and NT$6.64 in 4Q22.
1Q24F is typically the traditional low season for consumer electronics, and there are fewer working days during the Lunar New Year.
It is expected that the dividend payout ratio this year will be similar to previous years, which has been higher than 80% in the past few years.


Novatek (3034.TT): It's the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

Taiwan

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

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Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales. Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): A Consensus View to Build a New 12" Fab in Singapore.

Vanguard's utilization rate is low in 1Q24F but expected to rise in 2Q24, potential new Fab in Singapore and acquisition of TSMC's business point...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 25% revenue growth by 2024, bolstered by CoWoS market dominance and new Fab in Chiayi.

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Could Be the Recent Bottom, and 2Q24F Should Be an Upside 10% QoQ.

Anticipated strong 1Q24F results may hit upper limit, with 10% QoQ increase expected in 2Q24F. Stock market reflects enthusiasm for Vanguard...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): It's the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

The 4Q23 was higher revenue and earnings compared to 4Q22. 1Q24F is expected to be a slow season for consumer electronics. The company has...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales. Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): A Consensus View to Build a New 12" Fab in Singapore.

​Vanguard's utilization rate is low in 1Q24F but expected to rise in 2Q24, potential new Fab in Singapore and acquisition of TSMC's business point...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F.

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 25% revenue growth by 2024, bolstered by CoWoS market dominance and new Fab in Chiayi.

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Could Be the Recent Bottom, and 2Q24F Should Be an Upside 10% QoQ.

​Anticipated strong 1Q24F results may hit upper limit, with 10% QoQ increase expected in 2Q24F. Stock market reflects enthusiasm for Vanguard...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): It's the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

​The 4Q23 was higher revenue and earnings compared to 4Q22. 1Q24F is expected to be a slow season for consumer electronics. The company has...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard's utilization rate is low in 1Q24F but expected to rise in 2Q24, potential new Fab in Singapore and acquisition of TSMC's business point...

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for 25% revenue growth by 2024, bolstered by CoWoS market dominance and new Fab in Chiayi.

Anticipated strong 1Q24F results may hit upper limit, with 10% QoQ increase expected in 2Q24F. Stock market reflects enthusiasm for Vanguard...

The 4Q23 was higher revenue and earnings compared to 4Q22. 1Q24F is expected to be a slow season for consumer electronics. The company has...