Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I see five ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 Index during the March 2023 review.</li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electricite-de-france-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21441:1" rel="noopener">Electricite De France Sa (EDF FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vantage-towers-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35602:1" rel="noopener">Vantage Towers (VTWR GR)</a> could have index outflows triggered by extraordinary float adjustments before or during the March 2023 review. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
Based on the latest available data, I see five ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 Index during the March 2023 review.
Separately, Electricite De France Sa (EDF FP) and Vantage Towers (VTWR GR) could have index outflows triggered by extraordinary float adjustments before or during the March 2023 review. 


Quiddity Leaderboard STOXX Europe Mar 23: 5 ADDs/DELs and Potential Downweights for EDF and VTWR

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>The agreement between Vodafone and the consortium values the company at a generous 24x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 19% premium over the 3-month VWAP (14.7% above my DCF-based fair value estimate).</li>
<li>Nevertheless the spread (+0.44%) signals that Oak Holdings may not obtain the necessary 95% to squeeze-out. Risk arb funds are betting on higher returns from a Domination Agreement.</li>
<li>On rather aggressive assumptions (90% payout, 4.5% rate of return, 2.5% growth) a dividend-discount model provides a €39.6/share valuation. This could still turn into another messy Kabel Deustschland scenario.</li>
</ul>


The agreement between Vodafone and the consortium values the company at a generous 24x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 19% premium over the 3-month VWAP (14.7% above my DCF-based fair value estimate).
Nevertheless the spread (+0.44%) signals that Oak Holdings may not obtain the necessary 95% to squeeze-out. Risk arb funds are betting on higher returns from a Domination Agreement.
On rather aggressive assumptions (90% payout, 4.5% rate of return, 2.5% growth) a dividend-discount model provides a €39.6/share valuation. This could still turn into another messy Kabel Deustschland scenario.


Oak Holdings/Vantage Towers: Tendering Vs. Domination Agreement

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Including the addition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a>, there could be around 7 ADDs/DELs during the December 2022 Rebalance. </li>
<li>In addition, there could be as many as <em>five</em> more intra-review changes before the end of the year.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
Including the addition of Porsche AG (P911 GR), there could be around 7 ADDs/DELs during the December 2022 Rebalance. 
In addition, there could be as many as five more intra-review changes before the end of the year.


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March 2022 constituent changes for the STOXX Europe 600 and the EURO STOXX Indices were announced on 1st March 2022. </li>
<li>The Index Changes will be implemented (Inclusion Event) at the close of 18th March 2022 (Friday) and the changes will be effective from 21st March 2022 (Monday). </li>
<li>So far, the LONG-SHORT baskets suggested by Quiddity have done extremely well. Below are my thoughts for the remainder of the timeline.</li>
</ul>


The March 2022 constituent changes for the STOXX Europe 600 and the EURO STOXX Indices were announced on 1st March 2022. 
The Index Changes will be implemented (Inclusion Event) at the close of 18th March 2022 (Friday) and the changes will be effective from 21st March 2022 (Monday). 
So far, the LONG-SHORT baskets suggested by Quiddity have done extremely well. Below are my thoughts for the remainder of the timeline.


STOXX Europe Indices: March 2022 Rebalance Trade So Far So Good. What Next?

Germany

Vantage Towers AG provides infrastructure and technology solutions. The Company develops, constructs, installs, and manages communication and networking towers. Vantage Towers serves customers in Europe.

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Vantage Towers (VTWR GR)

Quiddity Leaderboard STOXX Europe Mar 23: 5 ADDs/DELs and Potential Downweights for EDF and VTWR

At present, there are multiple names hovering around the borders requiring fairly small price gains/drops to become ADDs/DELs in the March 2023...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Oak Holdings/Vantage Towers: Tendering Vs. Domination Agreement

The agreement values VTWR at a generous 24x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 19% premium to 3-month VWAP. Oak Holdings intends to enter into a domination and P&L...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

I expect the top ranked Potential ADDs to outperform the top ranked Potential DELs until the official Rebalance results are confirmed at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STOXX Europe Indices: March 2022 Rebalance Trade So Far So Good. What Next?

The LONG-SHORT Trades for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices March 2022 Rebalance has performed well so far. Below is a discussion on my...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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