Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Q4FY23 earnings season was marked by weaker macro, rising interest rates, banking challenges in the US and European markets, and moderation in discretionary demand.</li><li>On the positive side, earning season was led by the sequential margin expansion on account of moderation in commodity prices and the uptick in credit growth.</li><li>The export-oriented themes, however, are likely to laggard. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Q4FY23 earnings season was marked by weaker macro, rising interest rates, banking challenges in the US and European markets, and moderation in discretionary demand.On the positive side, earning season was led by the sequential margin expansion on account of moderation in commodity prices and the uptick in credit growth.The export-oriented themes, however, are likely to laggard. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Axis Alpha reported a dream monthly strike rate of 100% in Mar’23. It continued to deliver robust returns with absolute profits of over 5.53 Lc since its inception in May’20.</li><li>A few calls that met their targets successfully were KEC International (4.4% in 4 days), Indian Hotels (4%)</li><li>Our Axis Top Picks basket reported an impressive performance with a return of 149% since its inception, notably beating the 87% returns reported by the benchmark NIFTY 50 Index over the same period.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Axis Alpha reported a dream monthly strike rate of 100% in Mar’23. It continued to deliver robust returns with absolute profits of over 5.53 Lc since its inception in May’20.A few calls that met their targets successfully were KEC International (4.4% in 4 days), Indian Hotels (4%)Our Axis Top Picks basket reported an impressive performance with a return of 149% since its inception, notably beating the 87% returns reported by the benchmark NIFTY 50 Index over the same period.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Axis Top Picks basket outperformed the benchmark by a significant margin with its impressive return of 9.7% in FY23 as against the 0.6% decline posted by NIFTY 50 over the same period.</li><li>The basket, however, reported a flattish return (-0.3%) in a highly volatile Mar’23 which witnessed a rather mixed performance across sectoral, market cap, and style indices, indicating an underlying change in the market positioning.</li><li>Nonetheless, the basket has delivered an astounding return of 149% since its inception (May'20) which stands significantly higher than the 87% returns delivered by NIFTY 50 over the same period.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Axis Top Picks basket outperformed the benchmark by a significant margin with its impressive return of 9.7% in FY23 as against the 0.6% decline posted by NIFTY 50 over the same period.The basket, however, reported a flattish return (-0.3%) in a highly volatile Mar’23 which witnessed a rather mixed performance across sectoral, market cap, and style indices, indicating an underlying change in the market positioning.Nonetheless, the basket has delivered an astounding return of 149% since its inception (May'20) which stands significantly higher than the 87% returns delivered by NIFTY 50 over the same period.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) is an Indian multinational company and one of the largest bottlers of PepsiCo beverages in the world outside the United States. It manufactures, bottles, distributes, and sells a wide range of carbonated soft drinks, non-carbonated beverages, and packaged drinking water under trademarks owned by PepsiCo, including popular brands like Pepsi, Mountain Dew, 7UP, Mirinda, Sting, Tropicana, Gatorade, and Aquafina. The company is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India, and was founded in 1995.

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Varun Beverages (VBL IN)

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Q4FY23 - Consolidated Earnings Preview

Q4FY23 earnings season was marked by weaker macro, rising interest rates, banking challenges in the US and European markets, and moderation in...

Axis Direct

Axis Research Scorecard Report - Mar 23

Axis Alpha reported a dream monthly strike rate of 100% in Mar’23. It continued to deliver robust returns with absolute profits of over 5.53 Lc...

Axis Direct

Top Picks - Apr 2023

Axis Top Picks basket outperformed the benchmark by a significant margin with its impressive return of 9.7% in FY23 as against the 0.6% decline...

Axis Direct

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