Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.</li>
<li>The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.</li>
<li>Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.</li>
</ul>


The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.
The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.
Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.


Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Topline growth remains muted: Staple companies have reported muted topline growth due to weak urban consumer demand, heavy rainfall across major parts of the country, and heightened competitive intensity.</li><li>On a positive note, rural demand continues to show signs of revival and remains resilient. </li><li>Urban weakness was a surprising element: Urban which accounts for 50-60% of FMCG sales came under pressure as highlighted by most of the consumer companies owing to – 1) Slowdown in discretionary spends, 2) Muted wage growth, 3) Higher interest rate coupled with increase in rentals and EMIs, 3) Higher competitive intensity from other D2C brands as Qcommerce penetration increase in the recent time leading to overall weakness in overall urban.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Topline growth remains muted: Staple companies have reported muted topline growth due to weak urban consumer demand, heavy rainfall across major parts of the country, and heightened competitive intensity.On a positive note, rural demand continues to show signs of revival and remains resilient. Urban weakness was a surprising element: Urban which accounts for 50-60% of FMCG sales came under pressure as highlighted by most of the consumer companies owing to – 1) Slowdown in discretionary spends, 2) Muted wage growth, 3) Higher interest rate coupled with increase in rentals and EMIs, 3) Higher competitive intensity from other D2C brands as Qcommerce penetration increase in the recent time leading to overall weakness in overall urban.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas – “FMCG” - November 2024

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.</li>
<li>Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.</li>
<li>Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. </li>
</ul>


China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.
Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.
Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. 


<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered a return of 11.6% in the last six months against the 7.5% returns posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.</li><li>Amidst a highly volatile month of Oct’24 that witnessed notably mixed performance across sectors, market caps, and style indices, the Axis Top Picks basket declined by 4.4% in Oct’24 (Till 1st Nov’24 closing) but managed to beat the market performance as the benchmark Nifty 50 declined by 5.8% over the same period.</li><li>It gives us immense joy to share that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 329% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 162% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered a return of 11.6% in the last six months against the 7.5% returns posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.Amidst a highly volatile month of Oct’24 that witnessed notably mixed performance across sectors, market caps, and style indices, the Axis Top Picks basket declined by 4.4% in Oct’24 (Till 1st Nov’24 closing) but managed to beat the market performance as the benchmark Nifty 50 declined by 5.8% over the same period.It gives us immense joy to share that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 329% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 162% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the Month of November 2024

<ul><li>FMCG companies under our coverage are expected to experience a recovery in volume growth.</li><li>Revenue growth will primarily be driven by volume growth in the low to mid-single digits, led by improved rural sentiments.</li><li>Rural growth is expected to outpace urban growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG companies under our coverage are expected to experience a recovery in volume growth.Revenue growth will primarily be driven by volume growth in the low to mid-single digits, led by improved rural sentiments.Rural growth is expected to outpace urban growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) is an Indian multinational company and one of the largest bottlers of PepsiCo beverages in the world outside the United States. It manufactures, bottles, distributes, and sells a wide range of carbonated soft drinks, non-carbonated beverages, and packaged drinking water under trademarks owned by PepsiCo, including popular brands like Pepsi, Mountain Dew, 7UP, Mirinda, Sting, Tropicana, Gatorade, and Aquafina. The company is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India, and was founded in 1995.

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Varun Beverages (VBL IN)

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Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?

​The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, expected to draw 400-450 million devotees, and could generate up to INR 2-2.5 lakh crore in financial transactions,...

Nitin Mangal

Top Conviction Ideas – “FMCG” - November 2024

Staple companies have reported muted topline growth due to weak urban consumer demand, heavy rainfall across major parts of the country, and...

Axis Direct

Active GEM Funds: Positioning Chart Pack

In this chart pack, we highlight the key country, sector and stock exposures among active Emerging Markets equity funds.

Steven Holden

Axis Top Picks for the Month of November 2024

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered a return of 11.6% in the last six months against the 7.5% returns posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.

Axis Direct

Q2FY25 Earnings Preview - FMCG & RETAIL

Revenue growth will primarily be driven by volume growth in the low to mid-single digits, led by improved rural sentiments. Rural growth is...

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The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, expected to draw 400-450 million devotees, and could generate up to INR 2-2.5 lakh crore in financial transactions,...