Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TSMC results came in much better than feared. Revenue was slightly weaker than expected and below consensus. This quarter's big story was margins driven primarily by FX changes.</li>
<li>Revenue was slightly below Taiwan Dollar (TWD) expectations, but margins were ahead of consensus. The big driver of this margin beat was FX, as the dollar weakened against the TWD.</li>
<li>The margin beat happened despite the 3nm ramp, a meaningful headwind. As N3 becomes a larger node, the headwind should increase, especially next quarter.</li>
</ul>


TSMC results came in much better than feared. Revenue was slightly weaker than expected and below consensus. This quarter's big story was margins driven primarily by FX changes.
Revenue was slightly below Taiwan Dollar (TWD) expectations, but margins were ahead of consensus. The big driver of this margin beat was FX, as the dollar weakened against the TWD.
The margin beat happened despite the 3nm ramp, a meaningful headwind. As N3 becomes a larger node, the headwind should increase, especially next quarter.


Weekly Earnings (ASML, LRCX, TSMC, Nanya)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Switzerland

VAT Group AG is a developer, manufacturer and supplier of vacuum valves, multi-valve modules and edge-welded bellows for use in semiconductor, display and solar panel manufacturing. The Company provides its products around the world.

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VAT Group (VACN SW)

Weekly Earnings (ASML, LRCX, TSMC, Nanya)

TSMC results came in much better than feared. Revenue was slightly weaker than expected and below consensus. This quarter's big story was margins...

Fabricated Knowledge

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

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