Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a> and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.</li>
<li>Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.</li>
</ul>


Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.


Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Guotai Junan International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After broker/investment bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan (1788 HK)</a> (GJI) was suspended last month pursuant to the Takeover's Code, an Offer from its state-backed parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-haitong-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22740:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)</a> (GHS) was expected.</li>
<li>That unfolded last Friday evening (7th July), with GHS pitching a pre-conditional (SASAC/NDRC) Scheme at HK$3/share, a 44.2% premium to last close, bang in-line with my estimate. Terms are final. 
</li>
<li>The pre-con long stop date is the 31st  October. That's uncommonly quick. This could (should) be wrapped up before year-end. Plus there are some quirky Scheme vote-blocking %s.</li>
</ul>


After broker/investment bank Guotai Junan (1788 HK) (GJI) was suspended last month pursuant to the Takeover's Code, an Offer from its state-backed parent Guotai Haitong (601211 CH) (GHS) was expected.
That unfolded last Friday evening (7th July), with GHS pitching a pre-conditional (SASAC/NDRC) Scheme at HK$3/share, a 44.2% premium to last close, bang in-line with my estimate. Terms are final. 

The pre-con long stop date is the 31st  October. That's uncommonly quick. This could (should) be wrapped up before year-end. Plus there are some quirky Scheme vote-blocking %s.


Guotai Junan (1788 HK): Get Involved Here

<ul>
<li>Yesterday morning (23rd July), broker/investment bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>  (GJI) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. </li>
<li>GJI is 73.92%-controlled by the recently formed state-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22740:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH)</a> (GHS) - see <a href="https://skr.ma/aWiHx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go</a>. </li>
<li>GHS will be taking out GJI. The key question is at what price? </li>
</ul>


Yesterday morning (23rd July), broker/investment bank Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)  (GJI) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
GJI is 73.92%-controlled by the recently formed state-backed Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH) (GHS) - see GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go. 
GHS will be taking out GJI. The key question is at what price? 


Musings On Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)'s Expected Offer For Guotai Junan (1788 HK)

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We often look at fringe finance companies as a window on mainstream banks. China Rongzhong Financial Holdings (CRZFH) provides financial leasing services in China, focusing on SME’s in the province of Hubei. The company announced late last week that its FY18 (ending March 2018) will see an even higher loss of at least HKD340 million compared with its HKD277 million loss in FY17. The causes for this: less revenue, higher provisions. To us, this is ultimately the way forward for China’s banks…

We often look at fringe finance companies as a window on mainstream banks. China Rongzhong Financial Holdings (CRZFH) provides financial leasing services in China, focusing on SME’s in the province of Hubei. The company announced late last week that its FY18 (ending March 2018) will see an even higher loss of at least HKD340 million compared with its HKD277 million loss in FY17. The causes for this: less revenue, higher provisions. To us, this is ultimately the way forward for China’s banks…

China Banks – Periphery Lender Reveals Worsening Financials

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities / Event-Driven

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities (1428 HK)

<ul>
<li>Mid-Trading yesterday, broker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK)</a> was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Shares closed up 9.3% before suspension.</li>
<li>Bright Smart's ops are tonking along nicely. It recently announced a (preliminary) 10% increase in FY25 profit (Mar Y/E). The share price is up 97% yoy.</li>
<li>Bright Smart's Chairman, Yip Peter Mow Lun, holds 50.54%. Unusual timing to take the company private. Alternatively Yip, at 73-years of age, may be cashing in his chips. </li>
</ul>


Mid-Trading yesterday, broker Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Shares closed up 9.3% before suspension.
Bright Smart's ops are tonking along nicely. It recently announced a (preliminary) 10% increase in FY25 profit (Mar Y/E). The share price is up 97% yoy.
Bright Smart's Chairman, Yip Peter Mow Lun, holds 50.54%. Unusual timing to take the company private. Alternatively Yip, at 73-years of age, may be cashing in his chips. 


Bright Smart (1428 HK): Chairman's Scheme, Or Cashing Out?

Hong Kong

VCREDIT is a technology-driven investment holding company primarily engaged in providing consumer financial services. The company facilitates loans between financial institutions and individual customers, offering credit products such as credit card balance transfer and consumption credit through online loan origination processes. It utilizes a proprietary "Hummingbird" risk management system. VCREDIT was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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VCREDIT (2003 HK)

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Looks pretty clean. A 7% premium to NAV and a roughly two-year high. If payment on or around late May, I'd pay up to S$0.97/share for a gross...

David Blennerhassett

Guotai Junan (1788 HK): Get Involved Here

At 5.8%/15.5% gross/annualised spread, I'd be a buyer here. This is a pretty clean deal. The risk this is blocked is low.

David Blennerhassett

Musings On Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)'s Expected Offer For Guotai Junan (1788 HK)

I think around $3/share would be viewed as fair. Guotai Haitong Securities has the clout to go MUCH higher. The question is whether they need to.

David Blennerhassett

China Banks – Periphery Lender Reveals Worsening Financials

We often look at fringe finance companies as a window on mainstream banks. China Rongzhong Financial Holdings (CRZFH) provides financial leasing...

Daniel Tabbush

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Chairman's Scheme, Or Cashing Out?

Broker Bright Smart is suspended to the Takeovers Code. Its chairman, Yip Peter, holds 50.54%. Unusual timing to take the company private. Yip, at...

David Blennerhassett

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