Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Remain long into upcoming earnings release. We maintain our Structural Long rating ahead of VEON’s FY3Q25 results (expected to be released mid-November). Our $78 target price implies 50% upside.</li>
<li>Kyivstar IPO related and Kyrgyztsan divestiture related one-offs. Reported 3Q25E profit likely includes ~US$250m in non-cash one-offs, comprising ~US$150m related to the Kyivstar listing and ~US$100m from VEON’s Kyrgyzstan divestiture.</li>
<li>We expect digital growth to remain in the 50% YoY range. Digital revenue growth should continue at a high rate, led by JazzCash in Pakistan and Uklon in Ukraine.</li>
</ul>


Remain long into upcoming earnings release. We maintain our Structural Long rating ahead of VEON’s FY3Q25 results (expected to be released mid-November). Our $78 target price implies 50% upside.
Kyivstar IPO related and Kyrgyztsan divestiture related one-offs. Reported 3Q25E profit likely includes ~US$250m in non-cash one-offs, comprising ~US$150m related to the Kyivstar listing and ~US$100m from VEON’s Kyrgyzstan divestiture.
We expect digital growth to remain in the 50% YoY range. Digital revenue growth should continue at a high rate, led by JazzCash in Pakistan and Uklon in Ukraine.


VEON (VEON US) 3Q25 Preview: Digital Revenue Mix & Margins Expanding

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

<ul>
<li>Wartime capex peak unlocks FY26 free cash flow; Multiplay ARPU mix absorbed three telecom headwinds at once.</li>
<li>Digital revenue tripled thanks to Uklon, Tabletki, and organic growth.</li>
<li>Core digital infrastructure for both Ukraine's wartime and peacetime economy. Maintain Structural Long rating.</li>
</ul>


Wartime capex peak unlocks FY26 free cash flow; Multiplay ARPU mix absorbed three telecom headwinds at once.
Digital revenue tripled thanks to Uklon, Tabletki, and organic growth.
Core digital infrastructure for both Ukraine's wartime and peacetime economy. Maintain Structural Long rating.


Kyivstar (KYIV US) 1Q26: Wartime Capex Likely Peaked, Digital Expansion Ahead of Expectations

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>New Street Research attended this year's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona recently. While the move to 5G will bring huge increases in localized wireless capacity, the transition around 2020 to 5G looks increasingly likely to be smooth for many operators, with little impact on capex or revenue trajectories. 5G does not change the key economics of network densification. Where these are good, 5G will thrive. Where they are poor, 5G deployment will be slower. Only in markets with strong asymmetry…</p>

New Street Research attended this year's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona recently. While the move to 5G will bring huge increases in localized wireless capacity, the transition around 2020 to 5G looks increasingly likely to be smooth for many operators, with little impact on capex or revenue trajectories. 5G does not change the key economics of network densification. Where these are good, 5G will thrive. Where they are poor, 5G deployment will be slower. Only in markets with strong asymmetry…

Report from Mobile World Congress: The Transition to 5G Comes into Focus.

<ul>
<li>Kyivstar reported preliminary 2025 results, with full results to be released in March.</li>
<li>Revenue and EBITDA growth for 2025 has come in at 25%, roughly in-line with our forecasts.</li>
<li>KYIV trades at a deep discount to peers despite 25% 2025 revenue growth and the embedded value of its rapidly growing digital platforms. Maintain Structural Long rating.</li>
</ul>


Kyivstar reported preliminary 2025 results, with full results to be released in March.
Revenue and EBITDA growth for 2025 has come in at 25%, roughly in-line with our forecasts.
KYIV trades at a deep discount to peers despite 25% 2025 revenue growth and the embedded value of its rapidly growing digital platforms. Maintain Structural Long rating.


Kyivstar: Operational Resilience & The Hidden Digital Alpha

Netherlands

VEON Ltd. provides telecommunications and digital services. The Company offers fixed-line telecommunication, broadband, voice, wireless Internet and connectivity, and other related services. VEON serves customers worldwide.

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VEON (VEON US)

VEON (VEON US) 3Q25 Preview: Digital Revenue Mix & Margins Expanding

Maintain Structural Long rating ahead of VEON's upcoming earnings release with potential 50% upside, despite one-off factors affecting accounting...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

Kyivstar (KYIV US) 1Q26: Wartime Capex Likely Peaked, Digital Expansion Ahead of Expectations

Wartime capex peaking; boosts free cash flow in FY26. Digital revenue tripling. KYIV is the core digital infrastructure supporting both Ukraine's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Report from Mobile World Congress: The Transition to 5G Comes into Focus.

New Street Research attended this year's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona recently. While the move to 5G will bring huge increases in localized...

New Street Research

Kyivstar: Operational Resilience & The Hidden Digital Alpha

Kyivstar's 2025 results show 25% revenue and EBITDA growth, trading at a discount to peers despite strong performance. Significant embedded...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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VEON (VEON US) 3Q25 Preview: Digital Revenue Mix & Margins Expanding

​Maintain Structural Long rating ahead of VEON's upcoming earnings release with potential 50% upside, despite one-off factors affecting accounting...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

Kyivstar (KYIV US) 1Q26: Wartime Capex Likely Peaked, Digital Expansion Ahead of Expectations

​Wartime capex peaking; boosts free cash flow in FY26. Digital revenue tripling. KYIV is the core digital infrastructure supporting both Ukraine's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Report from Mobile World Congress: The Transition to 5G Comes into Focus.

New Street Research attended this year's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona recently. While the move to 5G will bring huge increases in localized...

New Street Research

Kyivstar: Operational Resilience & The Hidden Digital Alpha

​Kyivstar's 2025 results show 25% revenue and EBITDA growth, trading at a discount to peers despite strong performance. Significant embedded...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Maintain Structural Long rating ahead of VEON's upcoming earnings release with potential 50% upside, despite one-off factors affecting accounting...

Wartime capex peaking; boosts free cash flow in FY26. Digital revenue tripling. KYIV is the core digital infrastructure supporting both Ukraine's...

Kyivstar's 2025 results show 25% revenue and EBITDA growth, trading at a discount to peers despite strong performance. Significant embedded...