Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, raising our price target for VRA to $10 (from $9) and slightly lowering our top and bottom line projections for Vera Bradley after the company handily beat Street EPS for 3Q (while revenues were below expectations).</li><li>Further, implied 4Q guidance was below expectations, as we believe management has remained somewhat conservative as we enter the heart of the Holiday selling season.</li><li>That said, with inventories materially lower, cash balances (and no debt) continuing to rise, strong demand for key new fabrics and performance-driven items, we believe management is beginning to make a positive difference at Vera Bradley which will become increasingly obvious in FY25; as such, we are becoming more aggressive and raising our VRA price target to $10 (from $9) or 7.3X our FY25 EV/EBITDA projection.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, raising our price target for VRA to $10 (from $9) and slightly lowering our top and bottom line projections for Vera Bradley after the company handily beat Street EPS for 3Q (while revenues were below expectations).Further, implied 4Q guidance was below expectations, as we believe management has remained somewhat conservative as we enter the heart of the Holiday selling season.That said, with inventories materially lower, cash balances (and no debt) continuing to rise, strong demand for key new fabrics and performance-driven items, we believe management is beginning to make a positive difference at Vera Bradley which will become increasingly obvious in FY25; as such, we are becoming more aggressive and raising our VRA price target to $10 (from $9) or 7.3X our FY25 EV/EBITDA projection.

VRA: 3Q Review: Building the Pieces for the New Vera Bradley; Raising PT to $10

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $10 price target after visiting Vera Bradley stores in Connecticut and Long Island.</li><li>We believe the company has continued to evolve Vera Bradley offerings and promotions, driving earlier consumer spending and allowing the company to become increasingly more strategic as the Holiday season rolls ahead.</li><li>As such, we remain impressed with the changes in the Vera Bradley business model under CEO Jacqueline Ardrey and her team and reiterate our Buy rating and $10 price target.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $10 price target after visiting Vera Bradley stores in Connecticut and Long Island.We believe the company has continued to evolve Vera Bradley offerings and promotions, driving earlier consumer spending and allowing the company to become increasingly more strategic as the Holiday season rolls ahead.As such, we remain impressed with the changes in the Vera Bradley business model under CEO Jacqueline Ardrey and her team and reiterate our Buy rating and $10 price target.

VRA: Snapping the Store: Making Xmas Bright; Reiterate Buy, $10 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vera Bradley with the company reporting 3QFY24 (October) results before the open on Wednesday.</li><li>Further, we believe key collaborations (Disney, Pixar, Peanuts, Winnie the Pooh) have continued to drive full price selling.</li><li>As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $9 price target for VR.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vera Bradley with the company reporting 3QFY24 (October) results before the open on Wednesday.Further, we believe key collaborations (Disney, Pixar, Peanuts, Winnie the Pooh) have continued to drive full price selling.As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $9 price target for VR.

VRA: 3Q Preview: Showing How to Manage in Tight Times; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vera Bradley after touring stores in Connecticut and Long Island.</li><li>We believe, with a focus on streamlining the shopping experience, continued flows of newness and licensed materials, including the first collection from Pixar (Toy Story), the return of key favorites and a rising de-emphasis on non-core categories and offerings, Vera Bradley has continued to satisfy their core shoppers and is creating the potential to attract and deepen their relationship with new customers that are not just looking for the newest patterns, but for compelling accessories offering high utility levels and impressive overall looks.</li><li>We believe the company is materially better positioned for the Holidays than last year in terms of inventory flows and product offerings, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $9 price target for VRA.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vera Bradley after touring stores in Connecticut and Long Island.We believe, with a focus on streamlining the shopping experience, continued flows of newness and licensed materials, including the first collection from Pixar (Toy Story), the return of key favorites and a rising de-emphasis on non-core categories and offerings, Vera Bradley has continued to satisfy their core shoppers and is creating the potential to attract and deepen their relationship with new customers that are not just looking for the newest patterns, but for compelling accessories offering high utility levels and impressive overall looks.We believe the company is materially better positioned for the Holidays than last year in terms of inventory flows and product offerings, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $9 price target for VRA.

VRA: Snapping the Store: An Impressive Holiday Experience; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are quite a few changes for stocks across the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>, MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.</li>
<li>There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive buying will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keurig-dr-pepper-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15411:1" rel="noopener">Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor (ON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vici-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28786:1" rel="noopener">VICI Properties Inc (VICI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are quite a few changes for stocks across the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX), MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.
There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US), On Semiconductor (ON US) and VICI Properties Inc (VICI US). 


S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

United States

Vera Bradley, Inc. designs, produces and retails fashion accessories for women. The Company markets handbags, accessories and travel and leisure items through its chain of retail stores and independent retailers.

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Vera Bradley (VRA US)

VRA: 3Q Review: Building the Pieces for the New Vera Bradley; Raising PT to $10

We are reiterating our Buy rating, raising our price target for VRA to $10 (from $9) and slightly lowering our top and bottom line projections for...

Small Cap Consumer Research

VRA: Snapping the Store: Making Xmas Bright; Reiterate Buy, $10 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $10 price target after visiting Vera Bradley stores in Connecticut and Long Island. We believe...

Small Cap Consumer Research

VRA: 3Q Preview: Showing How to Manage in Tight Times; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vera Bradley with the company reporting 3QFY24 (October) results before the...

Small Cap Consumer Research

VRA: Snapping the Store: An Impressive Holiday Experience; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vera Bradley after touring stores in Connecticut and Long Island. We...

Small Cap Consumer Research

S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

There are 3 changes for the S&P500, plus more changes for the MidCap and SmallCap indices. We estimate a one-way trade of US$30bn across the...

Brian Freitas

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