Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM</li>
<li>Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.</li>
<li>Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.</li>
</ul>


The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM
Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.
Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.


Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are quite a few changes for stocks across the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>, MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.</li>
<li>There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive buying will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keurig-dr-pepper-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15411:1" rel="noopener">Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor (ON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vici-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28786:1" rel="noopener">VICI Properties Inc (VICI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are quite a few changes for stocks across the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX), MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.
There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US), On Semiconductor (ON US) and VICI Properties Inc (VICI US). 


S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 3 June 2022, the S&amp;P DJI Global Index team announced changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P Midcap 400, and S&amp;P SmallCap 600 indices (and a number of other smaller indices).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vici-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28786:1" rel="noopener"></a>VICI Properties (VICI) will replace Cerner (CERN) in S&amp;P500 at close of 7 June. Keurig DrPepper and ON Semiconductor will replace UnderArmour and IPG Photonics at close 17 June.</li>
<li>This set of rebalances is particularly interesting in terms of non-offsetting flows, unlike many rebals which are just a game of musical shares between the three top indices.</li>
</ul>


On 3 June 2022, the S&amp;P DJI Global Index team announced changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P Midcap 400, and S&amp;P SmallCap 600 indices (and a number of other smaller indices).

VICI Properties (VICI) will replace Cerner (CERN) in S&amp;P500 at close of 7 June. Keurig DrPepper and ON Semiconductor will replace UnderArmour and IPG Photonics at close 17 June.
This set of rebalances is particularly interesting in terms of non-offsetting flows, unlike many rebals which are just a game of musical shares between the three top indices.


S&P500, S&PMid400, and S&PSmall600 Index Changes for June 2022 - More Interesting Than Usual

United States

Vera Bradley, Inc. designs, produces and retails fashion accessories for women. The Company markets handbags, accessories and travel and leisure items through its chain of retail stores and independent retailers.

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Vera Bradley (VRA US)

Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

10/31/23 we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers as key $SPX $QQQ $IWM supports were being tested. 11/7/23 we argued it was MORE than just...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an...

Vermilion Research

S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

There are 3 changes for the S&P500, plus more changes for the MidCap and SmallCap indices. We estimate a one-way trade of US$30bn across the...

Brian Freitas

S&P500, S&PMid400, and S&PSmall600 Index Changes for June 2022 - More Interesting Than Usual

The June 2022 S&P500, S&P Midcap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 Rebalance was announced on 3 June 2022. VICI will replace CERN at the close of 7 June,...

Travis Lundy

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