AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly, The Physical Layer

The Physical Layer

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly

A journal on the physical constraints behind the AI buildout: power, grid connection, data centres, cooling and the supply chains that gate them. Written to be understood by anyone.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>An AI processor needs electricity at less than one volt, but power reaches the cabinet at hundreds of volts.</li><li>Texas Instruments makes many of the small, cheap chips that step it down and keep it safe on the way.</li><li>It is spending tens of billions of dollars on its own American factories to make those chips more cheaply than anyone who rents factory space.</li></ul>

An AI processor needs electricity at less than one volt, but power reaches the cabinet at hundreds of volts.Texas Instruments makes many of the small, cheap chips that step it down and keep it safe on the way.It is spending tens of billions of dollars on its own American factories to make those chips more cheaply than anyone who rents factory space.

The most expensive chip in an AI rack runs on Texas Instruments' cheapest ones

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Computing, and thus data centers, are becoming more critical to nearly every business (thank AI).</li><li>In this edition of Tech Talk, we focus on green and crypto data centers, highlighting their specific needs, characteristics, market dynamics, and leading vendors.</li><li>Simply put, a green data center uses many of the standard computer systems and networking equipment of other data centers, but with a strong emphasis on minimizing environmental impact. </li></ul>

Computing, and thus data centers, are becoming more critical to nearly every business (thank AI).In this edition of Tech Talk, we focus on green and crypto data centers, highlighting their specific needs, characteristics, market dynamics, and leading vendors.Simply put, a green data center uses many of the standard computer systems and networking equipment of other data centers, but with a strong emphasis on minimizing environmental impact. 

Tech Talk: Next-Gen Data Centers Green and Crypto Data Centers

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place.</li>
<li>Let’s start with Automotive, which is my favorite idea set right now. The problem is that the near-term results were much weaker than I expected, and it looks like the bottom is maybe in.</li>
<li>I was expecting another quarter of scrapping along the bottom, and Industrial weakness punched a new low.</li>
</ul>


This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place.
Let’s start with Automotive, which is my favorite idea set right now. The problem is that the near-term results were much weaker than I expected, and it looks like the bottom is maybe in.
I was expecting another quarter of scrapping along the bottom, and Industrial weakness punched a new low.


Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

<ul><li>This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.</li><li>Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.</li><li>Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.</li></ul>

This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

<ul>
<li>
 Medium term: Delta remains well placed to capture the AI power upgrade cycle, with PSU leadership extending into DC/DC, BBU and HVDC power racks as 800VDC adoption scales through 2027-28e.</li>
<li>
 Short term: 2Q26 margin pressure was driven by supply constraints and input-cost inflation; 3Q/4Q should show price pass-through. Even if normalization slips into 1Q27, this is not a thesis breaker.</li>
<li>
 Valuation: Rolling FY2 P/E has corrected to ~28x from ~35-39x at the recent peak, while earnings remain strong. That creates a better entry point with original upside thesis intact.</li>
</ul>



 Medium term: Delta remains well placed to capture the AI power upgrade cycle, with PSU leadership extending into DC/DC, BBU and HVDC power racks as 800VDC adoption scales through 2027-28e.

 Short term: 2Q26 margin pressure was driven by supply constraints and input-cost inflation; 3Q/4Q should show price pass-through. Even if normalization slips into 1Q27, this is not a thesis breaker.

 Valuation: Rolling FY2 P/E has corrected to ~28x from ~35-39x at the recent peak, while earnings remain strong. That creates a better entry point with original upside thesis intact.


Delta Electronics (2308 TT) - Buy Into Short-Term Weakness - Architecture Confidence Increasing.

United States

Vertiv Holdings Co operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides electrical power equipment, thermal management, racks and enclosures, monitoring and management, tools, and other services. Vertiv Holdings serves data centers, communication networks, commercial, and industrial environments worldwide.

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Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US)

The most expensive chip in an AI rack runs on Texas Instruments' cheapest ones

An AI processor needs electricity at less than one volt, but power reaches the cabinet at hundreds of volts. Texas Instruments makes many of the...

The Physical Layer

Tech Talk: Next-Gen Data Centers Green and Crypto Data Centers

In this edition of Tech Talk, we focus on green and crypto data centers, highlighting their specific needs, characteristics, market dynamics, and...

Water Tower Research

Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place. Let’s start with Automotive, which is my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings Week of April 26th

TXN, NOD, TER, INTC, MXL, ASM, STM, ON, KLA, LRCX, VRT, Aixtron, MXL. This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual....

Fabricated Knowledge

Delta Electronics (2308 TT) - Buy Into Short-Term Weakness - Architecture Confidence Increasing.

Delta remains well placed to capture the AI power upgrade cycle, with PSU leadership extending into DC/DC, BBU and HVDC power racks as 800VDC...

Raj S, CA, CFA

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