AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The AI buildout is evolving into a capital cycle; financing conditions and infrastructure activation now shape deployment pace.</li>
<li>Nvidia is moving upstream by anchoring infrastructure capacity, while companies like Supermicro, Vertiv, and Eaton play critical roles in converting shipped GPUs into operational compute.</li>
<li>Infrastructure integrators, power providers, and custom silicon firms are emerging as key parallel beneficiaries of the AI expansion.</li>
</ul>


The AI buildout is evolving into a capital cycle; financing conditions and infrastructure activation now shape deployment pace.
Nvidia is moving upstream by anchoring infrastructure capacity, while companies like Supermicro, Vertiv, and Eaton play critical roles in converting shipped GPUs into operational compute.
Infrastructure integrators, power providers, and custom silicon firms are emerging as key parallel beneficiaries of the AI expansion.


Nvidia Is Becoming a Capacity Anchor as the AI Buildout Turns Into a Capital Cycle

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.</li>
<li>They rebalance with SP500 name changes and capping mechanisms when the SP500 index is rebalanced. Here we present expected flows for the March 2026 rebal.  </li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of ~US$7.4bn in March 2026 for the Select Sector indices in total. There is of course an additional US$9.7bn for the SP500, $7.8bn for Equal Weight.</li>
</ul>


The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
They rebalance with SP500 name changes and capping mechanisms when the SP500 index is rebalanced. Here we present expected flows for the March 2026 rebal.  
We expect one-way flow of ~US$7.4bn in March 2026 for the Select Sector indices in total. There is of course an additional US$9.7bn for the SP500, $7.8bn for Equal Weight.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: Still Over US$7bn One-Way Flow Expected

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>The $12.3bn acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayforce-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Dayforce (DAY US)</a> by Thoma Bravo was completed today, 4 Feb.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciena-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15442:1" rel="noopener">Ciena Corp (CIEN US)</a> is forecasted to be the primary replacement candidate of DAY in S&amp;P500 following a price surge of more than 170% over the past 6 months.</li>
<li>Other replacement candidates include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cheniere-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16683:1" rel="noopener">Cheniere Energy (LNG US)</a> due to sector balance, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coherent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10180:1" rel="noopener">Coherent (COHR US)</a> due to market cap.</li>
</ul>


The $12.3bn acquisition of Dayforce (DAY US) by Thoma Bravo was completed today, 4 Feb.

Ciena Corp (CIEN US) is forecasted to be the primary replacement candidate of DAY in S&amp;P500 following a price surge of more than 170% over the past 6 months.
Other replacement candidates include Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and Cheniere Energy (LNG US) due to sector balance, and Coherent (COHR US) due to market cap.


Ciena Corp (CIEN US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Price Surge and Dayforce Acquisition

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Forgent Power Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Forgent Power Solutions (FPS US) targets a $7.6–$8.8B valuation in a February IPO, capitalizing on surging data center and AI-driven infrastructure investment. The</li>
<li>Company delivers highly customized, engineered-to-order electrical distribution equipment, supporting complete powertrains and reducing labor constraints for mission-critical data centers and industrial facilities.</li>
<li>Strong growth and operational scale: FY2025 revenue rose 56% to $753M with $1B+ backlog; 10 campuses support $5B potential revenue, and early investor demand is robust and oversubscribed.</li>
</ul>


Forgent Power Solutions (FPS US) targets a $7.6–$8.8B valuation in a February IPO, capitalizing on surging data center and AI-driven infrastructure investment. The
Company delivers highly customized, engineered-to-order electrical distribution equipment, supporting complete powertrains and reducing labor constraints for mission-critical data centers and industrial facilities.
Strong growth and operational scale: FY2025 revenue rose 56% to $753M with $1B+ backlog; 10 campuses support $5B potential revenue, and early investor demand is robust and oversubscribed.


Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (FPS): Custom Electrical Leader Charges into Public Markets

<ul>
<li>The Spider Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.</li>
<li>In this insight, we have presented our expectations for capping flows and SP 500-driven sector tracking fund rebalance flows for the upcoming quarterly review in March 2026.</li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of ~US$7bn in March 2026 for the Select Sector indices in total.</li>
</ul>


The Spider Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
In this insight, we have presented our expectations for capping flows and SP 500-driven sector tracking fund rebalance flows for the upcoming quarterly review in March 2026.
We expect one-way flow of ~US$7bn in March 2026 for the Select Sector indices in total.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: One-Way US$7bn Flow Expected

United States

Vertiv Holdings Co operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides electrical power equipment, thermal management, racks and enclosures, monitoring and management, tools, and other services. Vertiv Holdings serves data centers, communication networks, commercial, and industrial environments worldwide.

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Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US)

Nvidia Is Becoming a Capacity Anchor as the AI Buildout Turns Into a Capital Cycle

The AI buildout is now a capital cycle; Nvidia and others are key players in converting GPUs into operational compute, while infra integrators and...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: Still Over US$7bn One-Way Flow Expected

The SP Sector Select indices get rebalanced at the same time with the SP500/EW indices and add more one-way flow. Across the three of them, we see...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Ciena Corp (CIEN US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Price Surge and Dayforce Acquisition

CIEN replaced DAY in S&P500 migrating from MidCap at the close of 6 February with total passive fund volume of 30m shares and estimated net demand...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (FPS): Custom Electrical Leader Charges into Public Markets

Forgent Power Solutions aims for $7.6–$8.8B valuation in IPO, offering customized electrical distribution equipment for data centers and...

IPO Boutique

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: One-Way US$7bn Flow Expected

This insight shows the breakdown of flows expected for the S&P Select Sector indices at the March rebalance. We see US$7bn a side on top of the...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia Is Becoming a Capacity Anchor as the AI Buildout Turns Into a Capital Cycle

​The AI buildout is now a capital cycle; Nvidia and others are key players in converting GPUs into operational compute, while infra integrators and...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: Still Over US$7bn One-Way Flow Expected

The SP Sector Select indices get rebalanced at the same time with the SP500/EW indices and add more one-way flow. Across the three of them, we see...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Ciena Corp (CIEN US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Price Surge and Dayforce Acquisition

CIEN replaced DAY in S&P500 migrating from MidCap at the close of 6 February with total passive fund volume of 30m shares and estimated net demand...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (FPS): Custom Electrical Leader Charges into Public Markets

​Forgent Power Solutions aims for $7.6–$8.8B valuation in IPO, offering customized electrical distribution equipment for data centers and...

IPO Boutique

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: One-Way US$7bn Flow Expected

This insight shows the breakdown of flows expected for the S&P Select Sector indices at the March rebalance. We see US$7bn a side on top of the...

Anjana Amarasuriya

The AI buildout is now a capital cycle; Nvidia and others are key players in converting GPUs into operational compute, while infra integrators and...

Forgent Power Solutions aims for $7.6–$8.8B valuation in IPO, offering customized electrical distribution equipment for data centers and...