Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jan 3rd.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI, Delta Electronics, CP ALL, Kasikornbank, SCC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jan 3rd.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI, Delta Electronics, CP ALL, Kasikornbank, SCC.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,436/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,451/1,455 points (10/25-day EMA).</li><li>The MSCI Quarterly Review will impact closing prices today for the first day.</li><li>KTX has downgraded our short-term outlook on the SET Index due to increasing risk factors.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,436/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,451/1,455 points (10/25-day EMA).The MSCI Quarterly Review will impact closing prices today for the first day.KTX has downgraded our short-term outlook on the SET Index due to increasing risk factors.

MSCI Rebalancing to Impact Closing Prices Today & Weekly Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move downward (with intermittent rebounds), with the support at 1,482/1,472 points (5/10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,498/1,505 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index continues its upward trend, supported by the formation of a golden cross in the moving averages, signaling a bullish pattern.</li><li>The recent 0.25% interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last week came as a positive surprise, benefiting both economic recovery and Thai bond yields.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move downward (with intermittent rebounds), with the support at 1,482/1,472 points (5/10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,498/1,505 points.In the short term, the index continues its upward trend, supported by the formation of a golden cross in the moving averages, signaling a bullish pattern.The recent 0.25% interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last week came as a positive surprise, benefiting both economic recovery and Thai bond yields.

<ul><li>KTB has been added to the portfolio at the bottom of the rankings, given the expected performance growth driven by the positive impact of government budget disbursements.</li><li>Large cap stocks in the portfolio faced profit-taking pressure.</li><li>In addition, VGI's share price dropped 17.9% in a single day, dragging the portfolio's return down by 0.1% (vs. -0.04% for the SET).</li></ul>

KTB has been added to the portfolio at the bottom of the rankings, given the expected performance growth driven by the positive impact of government budget disbursements.Large cap stocks in the portfolio faced profit-taking pressure.In addition, VGI's share price dropped 17.9% in a single day, dragging the portfolio's return down by 0.1% (vs. -0.04% for the SET).

Krungthai Xspring SET100 Tactical Picks - September 26, 2024 (Eng.)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 29th December 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> (KLN) announced it would in-specie its entire 52.1% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> holds a 51.5% stake in KLN, it will hold 26.8% in KET post-in-specie, triggering an unconditional MTO. The MTO price will be THB5.50/share. </li>
<li>Thai SFC approval has now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0205/2024020501935.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">satisfied</a>.  The MTO should commence around the 13th Feb. with payment ~26th March. KLN, cum-entitlement to KEX, is the 19 Feb.</li>
</ul>


On the 29th December 2023, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (KLN) announced it would in-specie its entire 52.1% stake in Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB).
Given S.F. Holding (002352 CH) holds a 51.5% stake in KLN, it will hold 26.8% in KET post-in-specie, triggering an unconditional MTO. The MTO price will be THB5.50/share. 
Thai SFC approval has now been satisfied.  The MTO should commence around the 13th Feb. with payment ~26th March. KLN, cum-entitlement to KEX, is the 19 Feb.


Thailand

VGI Public Company Limited provides offline-to-online (O2O) marketing solutions, encompassing advertising, digital services, and distribution. Its advertising segment includes Out-of-Home (OOH) and online marketing services, with OOH advertising covering transit, office building, and billboard media. The company also offers digital lifestyle solutions such as cashless payment services and digital lending. VGI Public Company Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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VGI (VGI TB)

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Cal-Comp Electronics, JMT Network Services, VGI,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MSCI Rebalancing to Impact Closing Prices Today & Weekly Strategy

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,436/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,451/1,455 points...

Krungthai XSpring

3Q24 Earnings Results

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move downward (with intermittent rebounds), with the support at 1,482/1,472 points (5/10-day EMA) and...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai Xspring SET100 Tactical Picks - September 26, 2024 (Eng.)

KTB has been added to the portfolio at the bottom of the rankings, given the expected performance growth driven by the positive impact of...

Krungthai XSpring

Kerry Express (KEX TB)'s MTO Update

KLN is inexpensive at a trailing 3.2x PER for its stub ops - ex-KET. The five-year average is 6.7x (incl KET). KLN is up 15% since the in-specie...

David Blennerhassett

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