Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* The government had come to the stark realization that participation in the SOE OTC/IPO process does not necessarily ensure a sizeable capital gain upon listing, and that any gains are more dependent on the quality of the individual IPO; * With the equity market being in a deep correction territory through 2Q18, SOE IPO and divestment proposals remain extremely difficult to get off the ground; and * Regulatory changes to SOE IPO/divestment process have forced a slowdown as well.  <h2>Investment</h2>…

* The government had come to the stark realization that participation in the SOE OTC/IPO process does not necessarily ensure a sizeable capital gain upon listing, and that any gains are more dependent on the quality of the individual IPO; * With the equity market being in a deep correction territory through 2Q18, SOE IPO and divestment proposals remain extremely difficult to get off the ground; and * Regulatory changes to SOE IPO/divestment process have forced a slowdown as well.  Investment…

Vietnam  - Slowed SOE Privtization Process

* DATC Move a Tiny Positive; and * Net New NPL Growrh is Disturbing to Say the Least;  and * USD 27 bn (9.5% of total loans) in NPLs is due to double by 2020. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>Vietnam has two state-owned and managed debt acquisition companies, the Debt and Asset Trading Corporation (DATC) and the Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC). While VAMC is responsible for handling bad debts of commercial banks and financial institutions, the DATC has focused on settlements of bad debt owned by…

* DATC Move a Tiny Positive; and * Net New NPL Growrh is Disturbing to Say the Least;  and * USD 27 bn (9.5% of total loans) in NPLs is due to double by 2020. Investment SummaryVietnam has two state-owned and managed debt acquisition companies, the Debt and Asset Trading Corporation (DATC) and the Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC). While VAMC is responsible for handling bad debts of commercial banks and financial institutions, the DATC has focused on settlements of bad debt owned by…

Vietnam Banks - DATC Move A Mere Drop In the Bucket

*  Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory requirements, and debt/GDP cap - accelerating NPLs to follow.  Investment SummaryThe Vietnamese banking sector is falling off of a cliff, with valuations declining 5.8% over the last 30 days. Only consumer-focused VP Bank (VPB VN) has posted a positive  return (up 11.5%) over the period. In our view, there is certainly more to go with valuations at…

*  Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory requirements, and debt/GDP cap - accelerating NPLs to follow.  Investment SummaryThe Vietnamese banking sector is falling off of a cliff, with valuations declining 5.8% over the last 30 days. Only consumer-focused VP Bank (VPB VN) has posted a positive  return (up 11.5%) over the period. In our view, there is certainly more to go with valuations at…

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Last October, a global index provider announced that Vietnam would be added to their index in September 2026 as long as progress was made on one key issue.</li>
<li>On 2 February, the Ministry of Finance issued a circular that allows foreign investors to place orders through global brokers, in addition to trading through local brokers.</li>
<li>That should clear the way for inclusion of Vietnam stocks in the global index in September. Inclusion should take place in more than 1 tranche to minimise market impact.</li>
</ul>


Last October, a global index provider announced that Vietnam would be added to their index in September 2026 as long as progress was made on one key issue.
On 2 February, the Ministry of Finance issued a circular that allows foreign investors to place orders through global brokers, in addition to trading through local brokers.
That should clear the way for inclusion of Vietnam stocks in the global index in September. Inclusion should take place in more than 1 tranche to minimise market impact.


Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion Probability Jumps; Updated Names & Flows

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hagl-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6632:1" rel="noopener">Hagl Jsc (HAG VN)</a> is an inclusion while An Phat Holdings (APH VN) and CEO Group (CEO VN) are deletes from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of 12% and a one-way trade of US$45m.</li>
<li>There are a lot of stocks that have over 1 day of ADV to trade and there could be opportunities to enter/exit positions on a move in the stocks.</li>
</ul>



Hagl Jsc (HAG VN) is an inclusion while An Phat Holdings (APH VN) and CEO Group (CEO VN) are deletes from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the September rebalance.
There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of 12% and a one-way trade of US$45m.
There are a lot of stocks that have over 1 day of ADV to trade and there could be opportunities to enter/exit positions on a move in the stocks.


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes

Vietnam

The Vietnam Stock Index or VN-Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange. The index was created with a base index value of 100 as of July 28, 2000. Prior to March 1, 2002, the market only traded on alternate days.

Vietnam VNIndex (VNINDEX INDEX)

Vietnam - Slowed SOE Privtization Process

* The government had come to the stark realization that participation in the SOE OTC/IPO process does not necessarily ensure a sizeable capital...

Thomas J. Monaco

Vietnam Banks - DATC Move A Mere Drop In the Bucket

* DATC Move a Tiny Positive; and * Net New NPL Growrh is Disturbing to Say the Least; and * USD 27 bn (9.5% of total loans) in NPLs is due to...

Thomas J. Monaco

Vietnam Banking Sector - Stop, It Hurts

* Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory...

Thomas J. Monaco

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion Probability Jumps; Updated Names & Flows

The MoF approval for international investors to place orders through global brokers resolves the main hurdle for global index inclusion. Passives...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes

There is 1 addition and 2 deletions for the MVIS Vietnam Index. There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover...

Brian Freitas