Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.</li>
<li>The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.</li>
<li>We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.


Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

<ul>
<li>Masan Consumer Corp (MCH VN), VPS Securities (VCK VN) and VPBank Securities (VPX VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. There are a few stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of Vietnam stocks being added to a global index starting from the September rebalance and the market could outperform its regional peers.</li>
</ul>


Masan Consumer Corp (MCH VN), VPS Securities (VCK VN) and VPBank Securities (VPX VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. There are a few stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
There is a high probability of Vietnam stocks being added to a global index starting from the September rebalance and the market could outperform its regional peers.


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 3 Adds; 10.6% Turnover; US$120m Trade

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's share of US imports will halve in 2025 from Mar'18 peak of 21.8%, and ASEAN's share (led by Vietnam) will rise to 14%. India, Korea, Taiwan's shares gain too. </li>
<li>There was a big surge in Asian exports to the US in Jun-Jul'25 to beat tariffs, but tariffs will alter patterns in 4Q2025, cutting export growth and reducing US disinflation. </li>
<li>The rebound in US steel production (+4.6%YoY in Jun-Jul'25) and ISM manufacturing new orders suggests select American industries (metals, automobiles, electronics) will gain but downstream users will suffer steadily more. </li>
</ul>


China's share of US imports will halve in 2025 from Mar'18 peak of 21.8%, and ASEAN's share (led by Vietnam) will rise to 14%. India, Korea, Taiwan's shares gain too. 
There was a big surge in Asian exports to the US in Jun-Jul'25 to beat tariffs, but tariffs will alter patterns in 4Q2025, cutting export growth and reducing US disinflation. 
The rebound in US steel production (+4.6%YoY in Jun-Jul'25) and ISM manufacturing new orders suggests select American industries (metals, automobiles, electronics) will gain but downstream users will suffer steadily more. 


US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome to this week’s edition of the Great Game.</li>
<li>This week, all eyes are on Asia with a series of high-level summits taking place across the continent.</li>
<li>Both U.S. President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris will be flying out to attend in person, but what’s at stake and what are they trying to accomplish?</li>
</ul>


Welcome to this week’s edition of the Great Game.
This week, all eyes are on Asia with a series of high-level summits taking place across the continent.
Both U.S. President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris will be flying out to attend in person, but what’s at stake and what are they trying to accomplish?


Marketing Director, Asia Frontier Capital

Asia Frontier Capital

Marketing Director

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies.

Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. is a pioneering fund management company based in Hong Kong that specializes in investing in high growth Asian frontier economies by managing the AFC Asia Frontier Fund , AFC Iraq Fund and the AFC Vietnam Fund.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in public equities of Asian frontier countries that are seeing increasing consumption due to favorable demographic trends, rising incomes and high GDP growth. The fund invests in listed equities of companies that have their principal business activities in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund is positioned to take advantage of the continuing economic shifts in these countries and offers high returns combined with significant diversification opportunities. This fund is directed by the founder and CEO of Asia Frontier Capital, Thomas Hugger, who has been investing in frontier markets across Asia and Africa for more than 20 years.

The AFC Iraq Fund was launched on the 26th June 2015 and aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation for investors by capturing value and growth potential in the post conflict high-growth & resource rich Iraq market. The fund emphasises long term investment horizon to truly capture the opportunity in Iraq. The fund's investable universe consists of locally listed companies that have their principal business activities in Iraq as well as foreign listed companies that have the majority of the business in Iraq as a whole including the prosperous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The AFC Iraq Fund offers access to investments in post conflict recovery potential of Iraq, including the KRI, and/or stability in its territory. The AFC Iraq Fund is managed by Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Limited, Cayman Islands under the executive leadership team of Thomas Hugger (CEO & Fund Manager) and Ahmed Tabaqchali (CIO) who have more than 47 years of investment experience as well as an extensive background covering global, emerging, frontier and MENA markets.

The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of 70-90 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk.  This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 50 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.

For more information about the fund, management team and investment strategy please contact us at info@asiafrontiercapital.com.

<ul>
<li>Asian frontier markets had another solid month led by gains in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.</li>
<li>The ongoing upward re-rating in Asian frontier markets does not surprise us as we have been communicating since the end of 2022 that this would happen as inflation and interest rates are peaking and our universe will rally strongly given that our markets entered 2023 at significantly discounted valuations.</li>
<li>Year-to-date, many Asian frontier markets have significantly outperformed the region. </li>
</ul>


Asian frontier markets had another solid month led by gains in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
The ongoing upward re-rating in Asian frontier markets does not surprise us as we have been communicating since the end of 2022 that this would happen as inflation and interest rates are peaking and our universe will rally strongly given that our markets entered 2023 at significantly discounted valuations.
Year-to-date, many Asian frontier markets have significantly outperformed the region. 


The Re-Rating in Asian Frontier Markets Has Begun - July 2023 Update

Vietnam

The Vietnam Stock Index or VN-Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange. The index was created with a base index value of 100 as of July 28, 2000. Prior to March 1, 2002, the market only traded on alternate days.

Vietnam VNIndex (VNINDEX INDEX)

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

Vietnam could be added to a global index in Sep 2026. The final decision will be made in March. We see 21 stocks currently meeting index inclusion...

Brian Freitas

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 3 Adds; 10.6% Turnover; US$120m Trade

There are 3 adds for the index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. Vietnam stocks...

Brian Freitas

US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Great Game – Biden on Charm Offensive

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Great Game. This week, all eyes are on Asia with a series of high-level summits taking place across the...

Steno Research

The Re-Rating in Asian Frontier Markets Has Begun - July 2023 Update

The ongoing upward re-rating in Asian frontier markets does not surprise us as we have been communicating since the end of 2022 that this would...

Asia Frontier Capital

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

Vietnam could be added to a global index in Sep 2026. The final decision will be made in March. We see 21 stocks currently meeting index inclusion...

Brian Freitas

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 3 Adds; 10.6% Turnover; US$120m Trade

There are 3 adds for the index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 10.55% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$121m. Vietnam stocks...

Brian Freitas

US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

​China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Great Game – Biden on Charm Offensive

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Great Game. This week, all eyes are on Asia with a series of high-level summits taking place across the...

Steno Research

The Re-Rating in Asian Frontier Markets Has Begun - July 2023 Update

The ongoing upward re-rating in Asian frontier markets does not surprise us as we have been communicating since the end of 2022 that this would...

Asia Frontier Capital

China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...