Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.</li>
<li>Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.</li>
<li>Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.</li>
</ul>


ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.
Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.
Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.


El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives

<ul><li>VCB recorded relatively balanced growth in 1Q26, with total assets and credit increasing by 4.5% and 4.7% YTD, respectively, reaching VND2,551tr and VND1,727tr.</li><li>This was a solid performance, both compared with the bank’s recent growth pace and the broader system trend.</li><li>The stronger loan growth was mainly supported by VCB’s relatively attractive lending rates. </li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

VCB recorded relatively balanced growth in 1Q26, with total assets and credit increasing by 4.5% and 4.7% YTD, respectively, reaching VND2,551tr and VND1,727tr.This was a solid performance, both compared with the bank’s recent growth pace and the broader system trend.The stronger loan growth was mainly supported by VCB’s relatively attractive lending rates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Stock Recommendations (Vietnam Market) May 2026

<ul><li>Credit growth in 2025 reached ~15.3%, broadly in line with our forecast.</li><li>For 2026, we revise our credit growth assumption down to slightly above 13.5% YoY (–0.3%p vs. the previous forecast), reflecting a more cautious stance amid tighter capital headroom (lower CAR) and an elevated LDR in FY25.</li><li>Following these revisions: (1) NII is projected to grow 17.3% YoY (+2.1% vs. prior forecast), driven by a 9bps NIM expansion (+3bps vs. previous estimate), supported by solid mortgage growth (FY25: +20.2% YoY) and continued expansion in personal lending (FY25/26F: +17.3%/+14.3% YoY); (2) non-interest income is revised down by 8.5% vs. the prior forecast but still expected to grow 10.7% YoY; (3) other operating income is adjusted up by 19.4% vs. the previous projection, reflecting a stronger-than-expected recovery and sizable write-offs in 2025 (+36% YoY), which improve the earnings base; and (4) provisioning expenses are revised up materially (+57% vs. prior forecast), as additional provisions may be required for HTM securities, particularly corporate bonds. </li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Credit growth in 2025 reached ~15.3%, broadly in line with our forecast.For 2026, we revise our credit growth assumption down to slightly above 13.5% YoY (–0.3%p vs. the previous forecast), reflecting a more cautious stance amid tighter capital headroom (lower CAR) and an elevated LDR in FY25.Following these revisions: (1) NII is projected to grow 17.3% YoY (+2.1% vs. prior forecast), driven by a 9bps NIM expansion (+3bps vs. previous estimate), supported by solid mortgage growth (FY25: +20.2% YoY) and continued expansion in personal lending (FY25/26F: +17.3%/+14.3% YoY); (2) non-interest income is revised down by 8.5% vs. the prior forecast but still expected to grow 10.7% YoY; (3) other operating income is adjusted up by 19.4% vs. the previous projection, reflecting a stronger-than-expected recovery and sizable write-offs in 2025 (+36% YoY), which improve the earnings base; and (4) provisioning expenses are revised up materially (+57% vs. prior forecast), as additional provisions may be required for HTM securities, particularly corporate bonds. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Stock recommendations (Vietnam Market)_April 2026

<ul><li>On January 20,the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) will officially release the semi-annual review for both the VN30 and VNFin LEAD indexes, effective from February 3, 2025.</li><li>As a result, January 24, 2024 will be the last trading day for ETFs, following the rebalancing ofthese indexes’ portfolios.</li><li>Based on our data, we note that LPB is eligible to become a new entrantinthe VN30 basketin the next review,thanks to: 1) its 20th -ranked market capitalization, which makes LPB a must-have component; and 2) the fact that all other criteria meet the requirements.</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

On January 20,the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) will officially release the semi-annual review for both the VN30 and VNFin LEAD indexes, effective from February 3, 2025.As a result, January 24, 2024 will be the last trading day for ETFs, following the rebalancing ofthese indexes’ portfolios.Based on our data, we note that LPB is eligible to become a new entrantinthe VN30 basketin the next review,thanks to: 1) its 20th -ranked market capitalization, which makes LPB a must-have component; and 2) the fact that all other criteria meet the requirements.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Forecast – VN30 and VNFin Lead Indexes Review in 1Q25

<ul><li>HSX recently announced updates to VN30 Index, VNDiamond Index, and VNFin Lead Index components, including changes in stocks and calculation factors.</li><li>The new indexes will take effect on November 4, 2024, with rebalancing set for November 1.</li><li>ETFs tracking these indexes will adjust their portfolios from October 28 to November 1.</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

HSX recently announced updates to VN30 Index, VNDiamond Index, and VNFin Lead Index components, including changes in stocks and calculation factors.The new indexes will take effect on November 4, 2024, with rebalancing set for November 1.ETFs tracking these indexes will adjust their portfolios from October 28 to November 1.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vietnam

Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG) is a leading Vietnamese economic group primarily engaged in the cultivation, processing, and trading of natural rubber and rubber products. The company also operates in wood processing, industrial park infrastructure investment, high-tech agriculture, and clean and renewable energy. VRG was established in 1975 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

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Vietnam Rubber Group (GVR VN)

El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?

Weather risk alone is not investable; palm oil and rubber matter because ASEAN supply buffers are thinner and transmission can show up in...

Duncan Chan

Stock Recommendations (Vietnam Market) May 2026

VCB recorded relatively balanced growth in 1Q26, with total assets and credit increasing by 4.5% and 4.7% YTD, respectively, reaching VND2,551tr...

Mirae Asset Securities

Stock recommendations (Vietnam Market)_April 2026

For 2026, we revise our credit growth assumption down to slightly above 13.5% YoY (–0.3%p vs. the previous forecast), reflecting a more cautious...

Mirae Asset Securities

Forecast – VN30 and VNFin Lead Indexes Review in 1Q25

On January 20,the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) will officially release the semi-annual review for both the VN30 and VNFin LEAD indexes,...

Mirae Asset Securities

ETFs Monitor in 4Q24

HSX recently announced updates to VN30 Index, VNDiamond Index, and VNFin Lead Index components, including changes in stocks and calculation factors.

Mirae Asset Securities

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