Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (VFS US)</a>, the EV arm of Vietnamese conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, commenced trading on the 14 August. And promptly took off. </li>
<li>VinFast's current market cap is ~4x <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/general-motors-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18811:1" rel="noopener">General Motors (GM US)</a>'s, twice that of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercedes-benz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Mercedes-Benz (MBG GR)</a>'s, and the second-largest pure-play EV-maker after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla  (TSLA US)</a>.</li>
<li>Vingroup's holding in VinFast is worth 13x its market cap. This is not sustainable. </li>
</ul>



VinFast (VFS US), the EV arm of Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), commenced trading on the 14 August. And promptly took off. 
VinFast's current market cap is ~4x General Motors (GM US)'s, twice that of Mercedes-Benz (MBG GR)'s, and the second-largest pure-play EV-maker after Tesla  (TSLA US).
Vingroup's holding in VinFast is worth 13x its market cap. This is not sustainable. 


Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a>, a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade. </li>
<li>The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder's 99.0% stake. </li>
<li>VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  </li>
</ul>



VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade. 
The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder's 99.0% stake. 
VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-thuong-tin-commercial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:650:1" rel="noopener">Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the close of trading on 17 March.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover is 4.2% and the one-way trade is US$21m. There are two stocks where passive trackers need to buy over 1 day of ADV.</li>
<li>There have been big inflows to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/market-vectors-vietnam-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:648:1" rel="noopener">Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM US)</a> over the last three months as the index has traded near its lows.</li>
</ul>



Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN) will be deleted from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the close of trading on 17 March.
One-Way turnover is 4.2% and the one-way trade is US$21m. There are two stocks where passive trackers need to buy over 1 day of ADV.
There have been big inflows to the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM US) over the last three months as the index has traded near its lows.


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Deletion; Float & Capping Changes

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a>, a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, has filed for a US$1.0 billion IPO to list on Nasdaq.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vinfast-auto-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85901" rel="noopener">VinFast Auto IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  </li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case are a lack of brand recognition, questionable ability to generate profits, the precarious state of financing and liability exposure to ICE vehicles.</li>
</ul>



VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), has filed for a US$1.0 billion IPO to list on Nasdaq.
In VinFast Auto IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
The key elements of the bear case are a lack of brand recognition, questionable ability to generate profits, the precarious state of financing and liability exposure to ICE vehicles.


<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a> pre-markets a US$1bn IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-Tail (ITC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunshine-insurance-group-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36464:1" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK)</a> have tepid debuts, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weilong-delicious-global-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33378:1" rel="noopener">Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK)</a> launches a US$141m IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bigtincan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29067:1" rel="noopener">Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - VinFast (1905332D VN) pre-markets a US$1bn IPO, I-Tail (ITC TB) and Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) have tepid debuts, Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK) launches a US$141m IPO.
Event-Driven developments - Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Xingda International (1899 HK), Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP).


Weekly Deals Digest (11 Dec) - Toshiba, Bigtincan, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, VinFast, Weilong

Vietnam

Vingroup Joint Stock Company is a Vietnamese conglomerate that focuses on technology, industry, real estate development, retail, and services spanning healthcare to hospitality. The company's key products and services include residential and commercial properties, hotels and resorts, retail chains, automotive vehicles, healthcare services, and education. Vingroup was founded in 1993 in Ukraine as Technocom and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam.

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Vingroup (VIC VN)

Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense

Vingroup has undeniable scale advantages to maintain its property sector leadership. Yet a property recovery in what has been a largely unregulated...

David Blennerhassett

VinFast: Inexplicable Valuation

VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to...

Arun George

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Deletion; Float & Capping Changes

There is one deletion from the index, plus a bunch of changes to float and capping factors. One-way turnover is 4.2% and passives need to buy over...

Brian Freitas

VinFast Auto IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case are a lack of brand recognition, questionable ability to generate profits, the precarious state of financing and...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (11 Dec) - Toshiba, Bigtincan, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, VinFast, Weilong

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Toshiba, Bigtincan, Genex, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, Singapore Medical) and ECM (VinFast,...

Arun George

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