China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;</li>
<li>We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;</li>
<li>JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;
We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;
JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.


Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Koolearn’s successful transformation into a live-streaming e-commerce business showcased outstanding entrepreneurship and leadership of its founder Michael Yu, whom we highly respect.</li>
<li>That said, we expect its growth to decelerate materially after hitting RMB18 billion GMV by 2024. We value Koolearn at RMB36 billion (20% downside), drawing reference to VIPShop growth trajectory.</li>
<li>While high-frequency data on live-streaming business will drive near-term stock price (and potentially to the upside), its current valuation doesn’t pay off for long -term investors in our view.</li>
</ul>


Koolearn’s successful transformation into a live-streaming e-commerce business showcased outstanding entrepreneurship and leadership of its founder Michael Yu, whom we highly respect.
That said, we expect its growth to decelerate materially after hitting RMB18 billion GMV by 2024. We value Koolearn at RMB36 billion (20% downside), drawing reference to VIPShop growth trajectory.
While high-frequency data on live-streaming business will drive near-term stock price (and potentially to the upside), its current valuation doesn’t pay off for long -term investors in our view.


Koolearn (1797 HK): Don't Overpay for Growth

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klook-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36548:1" rel="noopener">Klook (KLK US)</a>, a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.</li>
<li>Klook connects travelers with merchants providing a vast array of activities, tours, attractions and other travel services across the globe.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
Klook connects travelers with merchants providing a vast array of activities, tours, attractions and other travel services across the globe.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Klook Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Disclosures Lagging

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klook-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36548:1" rel="noopener">Klook (KLK US)</a>, a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.</li>
<li>Klook connects travelers with merchants providing a vast array of activities, tours, attractions and other travel services across the globe.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
Klook connects travelers with merchants providing a vast array of activities, tours, attractions and other travel services across the globe.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Klook Pre-IPO - The Positives - Growth Has Been Very Strong

Andy Fu

<ul>
<li>2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;</li>
<li>Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; </li>
<li>We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. </li>
</ul>


2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;
Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; 
We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. 


2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

China's consumption seeing increased demand for home appliances and online shopping, leading to record parcel deliveries. JD and BABA are top...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Koolearn (1797 HK): Don't Overpay for Growth

We draw reference to VIPShop and value Koolearn at RMB36 billion by 2024 – 20% downside to its current valuation, based on 20x PE on RMB1.8 billion...

Eric Chen

Klook Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Disclosures Lagging

Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Klook Pre-IPO - The Positives - Growth Has Been Very Strong

Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

​China's consumption seeing increased demand for home appliances and online shopping, leading to record parcel deliveries. JD and BABA are top...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Koolearn (1797 HK): Don't Overpay for Growth

We draw reference to VIPShop and value Koolearn at RMB36 billion by 2024 – 20% downside to its current valuation, based on 20x PE on RMB1.8 billion...

Eric Chen

Klook Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Disclosures Lagging

Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Klook Pre-IPO - The Positives - Growth Has Been Very Strong

Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

​China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China's consumption seeing increased demand for home appliances and online shopping, leading to record parcel deliveries. JD and BABA are top...

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...