Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;</li>
<li>Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; </li>
<li>We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. </li>
</ul>


2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;
Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; 
We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. 


2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>In the first ten days of 2025, Shanghai SSE Composite declined 5.5% and broke the key 3,200 support level. The main reason for the weakness is exchange rate;</li>
<li>From November 5th when Trump won election, Renminbi exchange rate to US dollar has declined 3.3% and broke key support levels;</li>
<li>The impact has started to shown in China's residential property market. After a strong opening, new home sales quickly petered out. Whether rebound in the next few days is critical.</li>
</ul>


In the first ten days of 2025, Shanghai SSE Composite declined 5.5% and broke the key 3,200 support level. The main reason for the weakness is exchange rate;
From November 5th when Trump won election, Renminbi exchange rate to US dollar has declined 3.3% and broke key support levels;
The impact has started to shown in China's residential property market. After a strong opening, new home sales quickly petered out. Whether rebound in the next few days is critical.


What Has Happened in the First Ten Days of 2025?

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>
Online Travel: Korea and Japan eased tourist visa for Chinese. TRIP.com saw traffic gains in C4Q24;</li>
<li>
Internet Platform: Scalping on government consumption vouchers in Shanghai will shift future programs to major Internet platforms;</li>
<li>
Online game: December game code approval was both big and commercial. NetEase and Tencent games were included.</li>
</ul>



Online Travel: Korea and Japan eased tourist visa for Chinese. TRIP.com saw traffic gains in C4Q24;

Internet Platform: Scalping on government consumption vouchers in Shanghai will shift future programs to major Internet platforms;

Online game: December game code approval was both big and commercial. NetEase and Tencent games were included.


China Internet Weekly Wrap (52/​2024): Visa Free Entry, Social Gift Sending & E-Commerce Tax

<ul>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/JD US/3690 HK: NBS retail consumption data for November 2024 shows impact of early Double 11 (-/-/-/-/+)</li>
<li>BABA US/600177 CH: Alibaba rumored to sell Intime to Youngor (+//)</li>
<li>PDD US/1519 HK: Temu launches semi-consignment model in Mexico (-/+)</li>
</ul>


BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/JD US/3690 HK: NBS retail consumption data for November 2024 shows impact of early Double 11 (-/-/-/-/+)
BABA US/600177 CH: Alibaba rumored to sell Intime to Youngor (+//)
PDD US/1519 HK: Temu launches semi-consignment model in Mexico (-/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/JD US/3690 HK/600177 CH/1519 HK/NTES US

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Property Transactions Remained Strong in November, with Accelerated Growth in the Final Week.(+)</li>
<li>BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Exceeds Consensus in November, While Service PMI Falls Below; Hiring Intentions Remain Low.(-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US: China parcel volume delivery grew 40% yoy in the prior week (+/+/+)</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Property Transactions Remained Strong in November, with Accelerated Growth in the Final Week.(+)
BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Exceeds Consensus in November, While Service PMI Falls Below; Hiring Intentions Remain Low.(-/-/-/-)
ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US: China parcel volume delivery grew 40% yoy in the prior week (+/+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Has Happened in the First Ten Days of 2025?

Shanghai stock market weakens due to exchange rate, impacting China's property market. Rebound or not in new home sales is crucial in the next few...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/JD US/3690 HK/600177 CH/1519 HK/NTES US

Retail consumption data for November 2024 reflects early Double 11 impact, Alibaba rumored to sell Intime to Youngor, and Temu launches semi...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

​China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Has Happened in the First Ten Days of 2025?

​Shanghai stock market weakens due to exchange rate, impacting China's property market. Rebound or not in new home sales is crucial in the next few...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Internet Weekly Wrap (52/​2024): Visa Free Entry, Social Gift Sending & E-Commerce Tax

​Korea and Japan ease tourist visa for Chinese, Shanghai government vouchers likely shift to major Internet platforms; NetEase and Tencent games...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/JD US/3690 HK/600177 CH/1519 HK/NTES US

​Retail consumption data for November 2024 reflects early Double 11 impact, Alibaba rumored to sell Intime to Youngor, and Temu launches semi...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

​Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Shanghai stock market weakens due to exchange rate, impacting China's property market. Rebound or not in new home sales is crucial in the next few...

China Internet Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Visa Free Entry, Social Gift Sending & E-Commerce Tax

Korea and Japan ease tourist visa for Chinese, Shanghai government vouchers likely shift to major Internet platforms; NetEase and Tencent games...

Retail consumption data for November 2024 reflects early Double 11 impact, Alibaba rumored to sell Intime to Youngor, and Temu launches semi...

Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...