Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES US: &lt;Hearthstone&gt; PC Preload Begins, Official Return on September 25 (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Peacekeeper Elite&gt; Tops iOS Grossing Chart After Major Gameplay Update.(+)</li>
<li>700 HK: Tencent's FPS Game &lt;Delta Force&gt; Pre-launch Character Creation Event Starts, Launch on September 26 (/)</li>
</ul>


NTES US: &lt;Hearthstone&gt; PC Preload Begins, Official Return on September 25 (+)
700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Peacekeeper Elite&gt; Tops iOS Grossing Chart After Major Gameplay Update.(+)
700 HK: Tencent's FPS Game &lt;Delta Force&gt; Pre-launch Character Creation Event Starts, Launch on September 26 (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/BABA US/JD US/AMZN US/PDD US/SHEIN/VIPS US/3690HK/IQ US

<ul>
<li>BABA US/700 HK/WB US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US:Taobao to launch WeChat Pay support this month (+/+/-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>3690HK: Meituan Plans to Increase Marketing Investment to Support Small and Medium-sized Restaurant Businesses(+)</li>
<li>3690HK: Meituan food delivery and Meituan hotel services launch on Alipay Mini Program(+)</li>
</ul>


BABA US/700 HK/WB US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US:Taobao to launch WeChat Pay support this month (+/+/-/-/-/-)
3690HK: Meituan Plans to Increase Marketing Investment to Support Small and Medium-sized Restaurant Businesses(+)
3690HK: Meituan food delivery and Meituan hotel services launch on Alipay Mini Program(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/700 HK/WB US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/3690HK/1810 HK

<ul>
<li>NTES US/BABA US: NPPA Released August Domestic Game Code Approvals.(+/+)</li>
<li>700 HK: 700 HK: &lt;Honor of Kings&gt; July Grossing Up 26% MoM. (+)</li>
<li>BABA US: Alibaba backed AI-startup launches video and music generation model (+)</li>
</ul>


NTES US/BABA US: NPPA Released August Domestic Game Code Approvals.(+/+)
700 HK: 700 HK: &lt;Honor of Kings&gt; July Grossing Up 26% MoM. (+)
BABA US: Alibaba backed AI-startup launches video and music generation model (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTESUS/BABAUS/700HK/PDDUS/JDUS/VIPSUS/1810HK/SHEIN/WMTUS/4385JP/EBAYUS

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vipshop reported C2Q24 revenue and profit were in-line vs. the street, but the mid-point of C3Q revenue guide missed by 8% due to soft apparel demand;</li>
<li>VIPS has been post growth for some time. However, its healthy cash flow ensures a 75% dividend payout ratio as promised by the company. </li>
<li>We cut our CY24 EPS estimate by 8.4% due to soft apparel demand, leading to a US$ 14.5 TP, but maintain BUY on a post-subsidy recovery. </li>
</ul>


Vipshop reported C2Q24 revenue and profit were in-line vs. the street, but the mid-point of C3Q revenue guide missed by 8% due to soft apparel demand;
VIPS has been post growth for some time. However, its healthy cash flow ensures a 75% dividend payout ratio as promised by the company. 
We cut our CY24 EPS estimate by 8.4% due to soft apparel demand, leading to a US$ 14.5 TP, but maintain BUY on a post-subsidy recovery. 


[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$14.5) TP Change]: Buying for Dividend Yield and Cash Flow Yield

Andy Fu

<ul>
<li>We call the communique courageous because it pressed ahead on three fundamental, long standing issues of Chinese economy: fiscal revenue, social security and over-capacity;</li>
<li>But we question its timing as well as the wisdom of staunch refusal to print money to revive consumption. In our view, such measure doesn't run counter to the communique;</li>
<li>We believe the likelihood points to prolonged slow recovery in consumption, investment, job market and eventually manufacturing. But we see positive momentum in healthcare, infrastructure and eventually consumption.</li>
</ul>


We call the communique courageous because it pressed ahead on three fundamental, long standing issues of Chinese economy: fiscal revenue, social security and over-capacity;
But we question its timing as well as the wisdom of staunch refusal to print money to revive consumption. In our view, such measure doesn't run counter to the communique;
We believe the likelihood points to prolonged slow recovery in consumption, investment, job market and eventually manufacturing. But we see positive momentum in healthcare, infrastructure and eventually consumption.


The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/BABA US/JD US/AMZN US/PDD US/SHEIN/VIPS US/3690HK/IQ US

Preloading for PC has started, official return on Sept 25; tops iOS chart after update; pre-launch event begins, launch on Sept 26.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/700 HK/WB US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/3690HK/1810 HK

Taobao to support WeChat Pay, Meituan increases marketing for small businesses and launches services on Alipay Mini Program.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTESUS/BABAUS/700HK/PDDUS/JDUS/VIPSUS/1810HK/SHEIN/WMTUS/4385JP/EBAYUS

NPPA approves new games, Honor of Kings sees revenue increase, Alibaba-backed AI startup introduces new model for video and music generation.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$14.5) TP Change]: Buying for Dividend Yield and Cash Flow Yield

Vipshop's revenue and profit in-line with expectations, but soft apparel demand impacts future revenue guidance. Analysts maintain BUY rating on...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique

The communique of CCP's 3rd Plenum of the 20th CC has pressed forward with tough reforms in the next five years. While timing is quite bad, it...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/BABA US/JD US/AMZN US/PDD US/SHEIN/VIPS US/3690HK/IQ US

​Preloading for PC has started, official return on Sept 25; tops iOS chart after update; pre-launch event begins, launch on Sept 26.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/700 HK/WB US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/3690HK/1810 HK

​Taobao to support WeChat Pay, Meituan increases marketing for small businesses and launches services on Alipay Mini Program.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTESUS/BABAUS/700HK/PDDUS/JDUS/VIPSUS/1810HK/SHEIN/WMTUS/4385JP/EBAYUS

​NPPA approves new games, Honor of Kings sees revenue increase, Alibaba-backed AI startup introduces new model for video and music generation.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$14.5) TP Change]: Buying for Dividend Yield and Cash Flow Yield

​Vipshop's revenue and profit in-line with expectations, but soft apparel demand impacts future revenue guidance. Analysts maintain BUY rating on...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique

​The communique of CCP's 3rd Plenum of the 20th CC has pressed forward with tough reforms in the next five years. While timing is quite bad, it...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Preloading for PC has started, official return on Sept 25; tops iOS chart after update; pre-launch event begins, launch on Sept 26.

Taobao to support WeChat Pay, Meituan increases marketing for small businesses and launches services on Alipay Mini Program.

NPPA approves new games, Honor of Kings sees revenue increase, Alibaba-backed AI startup introduces new model for video and music generation.

Vipshop's revenue and profit in-line with expectations, but soft apparel demand impacts future revenue guidance. Analysts maintain BUY rating on...

The communique of CCP's 3rd Plenum of the 20th CC has pressed forward with tough reforms in the next five years. While timing is quite bad, it...