China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described</li>
<li>We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.</li>
<li>However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.</li>
</ul>


Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described
We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.
However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.


Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, has passed the HKEX listing hearing. GS, MS and JPM are joint sponsors.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company's business and financials and compared it with listed peers.</li>
<li>In this note, we forecast earnings and provide our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>


SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, has passed the HKEX listing hearing. GS, MS and JPM are joint sponsors.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company's business and financials and compared it with listed peers.
In this note, we forecast earnings and provide our thoughts on valuation.


SHEIN (希音) Pre-IPO: Forecast and Valuation

<ul>
<li>BILI/ 700 HK: April domestic game codes published by NPPA</li>
<li>JD/ PDD/ BABA/JDL: JD commits to maintain its low-price strategy</li>
<li>BABA/PDD/JD/VIPS: Taobao cancels fees and adjusts algorithm for upcoming “Super Cost-effective Event”</li>
</ul>


BILI/ 700 HK: April domestic game codes published by NPPA
JD/ PDD/ BABA/JDL: JD commits to maintain its low-price strategy
BABA/PDD/JD/VIPS: Taobao cancels fees and adjusts algorithm for upcoming “Super Cost-effective Event”


Baba/Pdd/Jd/Vips/BILI/700 HK/JDL: China TMT Update(Apr.24) - Taobao Cancels Fees for Promotion Event

<ul>
<li>BABA/ JD/ PDD/ VIPS: Tmall outlines upcoming changes to its platform (-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>LI: Li Auto CEO reveals six pure EVs in pipeline(+)</li>
<li>700HK/NTES/BILI/: Game industry in general:  Domestic game codes published by NPPA（+）</li>
</ul>


BABA/ JD/ PDD/ VIPS: Tmall outlines upcoming changes to its platform (-/-/-/-)
LI: Li Auto CEO reveals six pure EVs in pipeline(+)
700HK/NTES/BILI/: Game industry in general:  Domestic game codes published by NPPA（+）


China TMT Update (Mar.27) - BABA/JD/ PDD/VIPS/LI/700HK/NTES/BILI/ - Tmall Outlines Upcoming Changes

<ul>
<li>PDD: PDD reveals ambitious goal in Temu offline conference (+)</li>
<li>BABA/JD/VIPS/3690.HK: 5% YoY rebound in January/February retail data, but slower than expected (-/-/-/+)</li>
<li>TikTok：TikTok is ready to launch search ads, minior impact to Google</li>
</ul>


PDD: PDD reveals ambitious goal in Temu offline conference (+)
BABA/JD/VIPS/3690.HK: 5% YoY rebound in January/February retail data, but slower than expected (-/-/-/+)
TikTok：TikTok is ready to launch search ads, minior impact to Google


China TMT Update(Mar.16): BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS/TikTok - PDD Reveals Ambitious Goal in Temu Conference

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SHEIN (希音) Pre-IPO: Forecast and Valuation

SHEIN's forecast valuation is about half its last private round, with upside tied to margin recovery and regional growth.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Baba/Pdd/Jd/Vips/BILI/700 HK/JDL: China TMT Update(Apr.24) - Taobao Cancels Fees for Promotion Event

BILI/700HK: April domestic game codes published by NPPA;JD/PDD/BABA/JDL: JD commits to maintain its low-price strategy; Taobao cancels fees for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update (Mar.27) - BABA/JD/ PDD/VIPS/LI/700HK/NTES/BILI/ - Tmall Outlines Upcoming Changes

BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS: Tmall outlines upcoming changes(-/-/-/-); LI: Li Auto CEO reveals six pure EVs in pipeline(+); 700HK/NTES/BILI/game industry in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update(Mar.16): BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS/TikTok - PDD Reveals Ambitious Goal in Temu Conference

PDD: Temu announced ambitious goal in an open conference; BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS/3690.HK: Positive rebound in January/February retail data, increased...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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