China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Many newcomers are trying to replicate Shein’s path, but none has proven to be successful, as Shein’s moat in supply chain requires longterm down-to-earth work. </li>
<li>PDD’s Temu will be Shein’s biggest challenger because it is pursuing a different model. Instead of penetrating into the supply chain, Temu offers value-for-money, fair quality products from all categories.</li>
<li>Although Shein’s foundation remains solid (ladies’ apparel + developed countries), growth is slowing down. We reiterate BUY to PDD and BABA and SELL to SE and VIPS after studying Shein.</li>
</ul>


Many newcomers are trying to replicate Shein’s path, but none has proven to be successful, as Shein’s moat in supply chain requires longterm down-to-earth work. 
PDD’s Temu will be Shein’s biggest challenger because it is pursuing a different model. Instead of penetrating into the supply chain, Temu offers value-for-money, fair quality products from all categories.
Although Shein’s foundation remains solid (ladies’ apparel + developed countries), growth is slowing down. We reiterate BUY to PDD and BABA and SELL to SE and VIPS after studying Shein.


Shein Deep Dive:Imitators Perish; Differentiators Flourish

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, has passed the HKEX listing hearing. GS, MS and JPM are joint sponsors.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we briefly looked at the company's business, financials and investor backing.</li>
<li>In this note, we compare the company with listed peers from financial, operating and valuation perspectives.</li>
</ul>


SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, has passed the HKEX listing hearing. GS, MS and JPM are joint sponsors.
In our previous note, we briefly looked at the company's business, financials and investor backing.
In this note, we compare the company with listed peers from financial, operating and valuation perspectives.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.</li>
<li>A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.
A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.
Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.


Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>The steady slowdown in Chinese retail sales growth rates since July 2021 has been a good leading indicator for changes eCommerce GMV and revenue growth rates.</li>
<li>April 2022 Chinese retail sales data (consumer goods were down -11.1%y/y and apparel down -23.2%y/y) is very concerning for the sector</li>
<li>From a company-specific perspective, it still seems as though near-term sell-side expectations remain too optimistic.</li>
</ul>


The steady slowdown in Chinese retail sales growth rates since July 2021 has been a good leading indicator for changes eCommerce GMV and revenue growth rates.
April 2022 Chinese retail sales data (consumer goods were down -11.1%y/y and apparel down -23.2%y/y) is very concerning for the sector
From a company-specific perspective, it still seems as though near-term sell-side expectations remain too optimistic.


Chinese Ecommerce: Chinese Retail Sales Data Indicates Further Near-Term Weakness

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). </li>
<li>Gold miners (GDX) are attractive bottom-fishing candidates as price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. We are bullish as long as the GDX is above $31</li>
<li>Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, Gold, GDX, AMZN, NFLX, JD, VIPS, SSTK, OSTK, KL, BTG, AGI, PVG, EGO, SA, IAG, NGD, GFI, AU, and HMY</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). 
Gold miners (GDX) are attractive bottom-fishing candidates as price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. We are bullish as long as the GDX is above $31
Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, Gold, GDX, AMZN, NFLX, JD, VIPS, SSTK, OSTK, KL, BTG, AGI, PVG, EGO, SA, IAG, NGD, GFI, AU, and HMY


China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

Shein Deep Dive:Imitators Perish; Differentiators Flourish

A deep dive into Shein, one of the largest fashion retailers in the world. We give a detailed breakdown to some of the key metrics, and reveal...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SHEIN (希音) Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison

SHEIN has passed the HKEX listing hearing and is seeking a Main Board listing. In this note, we compare the company with listed peers on operating...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Stick with Japan & India. $ACWI bounce at $86 would be ideal for the bullish case (i.e., establishing a higher low), but we could easily see a test...

Vermilion Research

Chinese Ecommerce: Chinese Retail Sales Data Indicates Further Near-Term Weakness

In this insight, we analyse Chinese retail sales data, its efficacy as a leading indicator for eCommerce revenue growth, and how what near-term...

Wium Malan, CFA

Bullish Outlook Intact; Mining For Gold

Our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). We continue to believe we have...

Vermilion Research

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