Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 24th November <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monash-ivf-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18130:1" rel="noopener">Monash IVF (MVF AU)</a>, a fertility provider,  announced, and summarily rejected, a A$0.80/share non-binding indicative Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Soul Patts (SOL AU)</a> &amp; Genesis Capital.</li>
<li>Soul Patts &amp; Genesis have returned to the well with a A$0.90/share NBIO ("best &amp; final"). The indicative terms are a ~47% premium to undisturbed and 34% to last close.</li>
<li>Genesis/Soul Patts collectively hold 19.6% in MVF. Monash should engage.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 24th November Monash IVF (MVF AU), a fertility provider,  announced, and summarily rejected, a A$0.80/share non-binding indicative Offer from Soul Patts (SOL AU) &amp; Genesis Capital.
Soul Patts &amp; Genesis have returned to the well with a A$0.90/share NBIO ("best &amp; final"). The indicative terms are a ~47% premium to undisturbed and 34% to last close.
Genesis/Soul Patts collectively hold 19.6% in MVF. Monash should engage.


Soul Patts/Genesis Bump NBIO For Monash IVF (MVF AU)

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

The Government's release&nbsp;of Re:think,&nbsp;its tax discussion paper, is a welcome development, designed to kick-start the conversation with the community on a range of reform options designed to&nbsp;achieve a simpler&nbsp;and&nbsp;streamlined&nbsp;tax system&nbsp;capable of meeting the growing needs of an ageing population.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;I discuss some of the areas raised in Re:think which are of greatest interest to equity investors: how important income and consumption taxes are to Australia's tax take in a global context,&nbsp;the prospect of the growing drag from bracket creep on household disposable incomes (discretionary retailers), the outlook for the GST (supermarket&nbsp;retailers),&nbsp;the efficacy and viability of the dividend imputation system (high yielders with predominantly domestically oriented operations), the sustainability of the concessional tax treatment of superannuation (asset managers), and the risk associated with companies that have low effective tax rates.

The Government's release&nbsp;of Re:think,&nbsp;its tax discussion paper, is a welcome development, designed to kick-start the conversation with the community on a range of reform options designed to&nbsp;achieve a simpler&nbsp;and&nbsp;streamlined&nbsp;tax system&nbsp;capable of meeting the growing needs of an ageing population.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;I discuss some of the areas raised in Re:think which are of greatest interest to equity investors: how important income and consumption taxes are to Australia's tax take in a global context,&nbsp;the prospect of the growing drag from bracket creep on household disposable incomes (discretionary retailers), the outlook for the GST (supermarket&nbsp;retailers),&nbsp;the efficacy and viability of the dividend imputation system (high yielders with predominantly domestically oriented operations), the sustainability of the concessional tax treatment of superannuation (asset managers), and the risk associated with companies that have low effective tax rates.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monash-ivf-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18130:1" rel="noopener">Monash IVF (MVF AU)</a>, a fertility provider, has announced, and summarily rejected, a A$0.80/share non-binding indicative Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> &amp; Genesis Capital.</li>
<li>The indicative terms are a ~31% premium to last close. And ~7.7x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Chairman Richard Davis <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20251124/pdf/06sd9nmj7g6yqg.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">declared</a> terms "opportunistic in timing and materially undervalues the company". </li>
<li>Genesis/Soul Patts collectively hold 19.6% in MVF.  MVF's share price has cratered this year after a woman was mistakenly implanted with the wrong embryo. The CEO subsequently stepped down. </li>
</ul>



Monash IVF (MVF AU), a fertility provider, has announced, and summarily rejected, a A$0.80/share non-binding indicative Offer from Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) &amp; Genesis Capital.
The indicative terms are a ~31% premium to last close. And ~7.7x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Chairman Richard Davis declared terms "opportunistic in timing and materially undervalues the company". 
Genesis/Soul Patts collectively hold 19.6% in MVF.  MVF's share price has cratered this year after a woman was mistakenly implanted with the wrong embryo. The CEO subsequently stepped down. 


Monash IVF (MVF AU) Rejects Soul Patts/Genesis' Offer

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/pe-bidder-comes-calling-for-monash-ivf-amid-embryo-mix-up-debacle-20251123-p5nhpd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monash-ivf-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18130:1" rel="noopener">Monash IVF (MVF AU)</a> at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.</li>
<li>It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light. </li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for Monash IVF (MVF AU) at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.
On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.
It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light. 


Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?

<ul>
<li>Back in April 2022, Australia's largest private hospital operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR at A$88.00/share. Arguably, KKR dodged a bullet.</li>
<li>RHC's share price took another leg down last week after RHC announced weaker-than-expected FY24 earnings; plus a write-down of its European/UK ops. RHC is now ~50% adrift of KKR's NBIO.</li>
<li>Not altogether surprisingly, various media sources are reporting private equity outfits are (again) running a diagnostic check on RHC. </li>
</ul>


Back in April 2022, Australia's largest private hospital operator Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR at A$88.00/share. Arguably, KKR dodged a bullet.
RHC's share price took another leg down last week after RHC announced weaker-than-expected FY24 earnings; plus a write-down of its European/UK ops. RHC is now ~50% adrift of KKR's NBIO.
Not altogether surprisingly, various media sources are reporting private equity outfits are (again) running a diagnostic check on RHC. 


Private Equity Examining Ramsay Health (RMC AU). Again.

Australia

Virtus Health Limited provides health care services. The Company offers clinical, scientific, diagnostic services, and day surgery for reproductive and fertility health care. Virtus Health serves patients and operates reproductive health and fertility clinics throughout eastern Australia.

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Virtus Health (VRT AU)

Soul Patts/Genesis Bump NBIO For Monash IVF (MVF AU)

Trading ~17% adrift of the indicative terms. Monash should engage. I would be picking up shares here, and on any weakness.

David Blennerhassett

Taxing Times For Australia

The Government's release of Re:think, its tax discussion paper, is a welcome development, designed to kick-start the conversation with the...

Sam Ferraro

Monash IVF (MVF AU) Rejects Soul Patts/Genesis' Offer

Trading 10% through the indicative terms. Perhaps 8-9 turns of EBITDA may get board support. I think this needs a A$1+ handle, at a minimum, to...

David Blennerhassett

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?

The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal. The timing is opportunistic, and the...

Arun George

Private Equity Examining Ramsay Health (RMC AU). Again.

Ramsay's share price is pretty beaten up. FY24 earnings are expected to be roughly in line with FY22 figures. And KKR was still willing to pay...

David Blennerhassett

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