European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.</li>
<li>Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.</li>
<li>Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.</li>
</ul>


Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.
Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.
Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.</li>
<li>Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.</li>
</ul>


Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.
Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.
Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.</li>
<li>Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.</li>
</ul>


GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.
Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.
Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.</li>
<li>The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi's simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.</li>
<li>With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.
The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi's simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.
With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.


Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

<ul>
<li>Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, <em>aiming</em> (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.</li>
<li>Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.</li>
<li>Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.
Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.
Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.


Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

France

Vivendi SE provides culture, entertainment, media, and communication services. The Company specializes in audiovisual and cinema, communications, magazines, gaming, live performance, and distribution platform activities. Vivendi serves customers worldwide.

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Vivendi SE (VIV FP)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Holdco discounts diverged in November: GBL strengthens its case, Investor stays rich, Porsche SE sits at structural levels, Vivendi’s setback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Holdco discounts tightened in Sept. GBL buybacks aid narrowing; Swedish names near lows; HEIO spread persists. Optionality: Vivendi OPA, Rio Tinto...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

GBL’s discount is tightening, Rio Tinto’s dual listing offers DLC convergence upside, and Vivendi’s forced bid reshapes stub trade dynamics—three...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

Vivendi offers 22–37% upside in under six months as Bolloré faces a mandatory buyout. Legal clarity, NAV support, and strong liquidity make this a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Holdco discounts diverged in November: GBL strengthens its case, Investor stays rich, Porsche SE sits at structural levels, Vivendi’s setback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Holdco discounts tightened in Sept. GBL buybacks aid narrowing; Swedish names near lows; HEIO spread persists. Optionality: Vivendi OPA, Rio Tinto...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

GBL’s discount is tightening, Rio Tinto’s dual listing offers DLC convergence upside, and Vivendi’s forced bid reshapes stub trade dynamics—three...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

Vivendi offers 22–37% upside in under six months as Bolloré faces a mandatory buyout. Legal clarity, NAV support, and strong liquidity make this a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

​Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...