European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7 widened). Views are unchanged. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Danieli, Grifols (see section on the company), Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7 widened). Views are unchanged. 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Danieli, Grifols (see section on the company), Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, <strong>Volkswagen</strong> (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-August, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, <strong>Volkswagen</strong> (probably the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
<li>Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-August, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (probably the most interesting situation), Grifols, Atlas Copco.
Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September‘23 Report

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. </li>
<li>Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? </li>
<li>Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.</li>
</ul>


Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. 
Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? 
Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.


Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

<ul>
<li>Toyota's Q2 EPS undershot estimates by 28%. FY3/23 guidance was kept flat, but given a more favorable assumption for forex tailwinds, Toyota effectively lowered FY3/23 EPS by 7%.  </li>
<li>Management partially admitted to parts of recent media reports that Toyota was overhauling its EV strategy.  Targets of 3.5m BEVs by 2030 are unchanged, but the ramp may be slower.</li>
<li>Toyota's 2H FY3/23 hurdles are low and its auto division's operating profits appear to be bottoming. Stock may still be a laggard, but we're bullish on a 12-month basis. </li>
</ul>


Toyota's Q2 EPS undershot estimates by 28%. FY3/23 guidance was kept flat, but given a more favorable assumption for forex tailwinds, Toyota effectively lowered FY3/23 EPS by 7%.  
Management partially admitted to parts of recent media reports that Toyota was overhauling its EV strategy.  Targets of 3.5m BEVs by 2030 are unchanged, but the ramp may be slower.
Toyota's 2H FY3/23 hurdles are low and its auto division's operating profits appear to be bottoming. Stock may still be a laggard, but we're bullish on a 12-month basis. 


Toyota's Q2 Is a Huge Miss; EV Strategy in Flux

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GR)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May‘24 Report

Since mid-April, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 7...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘23 Report

Since mid-September, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary (voting) and preferred (non-voting) shares...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September‘23 Report

Since mid-August, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

Toyota's Q2 Is a Huge Miss; EV Strategy in Flux

Toyota saw a huge miss in Q2 and admits they're revamping their EV plans. This may seem negative, but it's a huge positive ahead of a recovering...

SC Capital

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