European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Germany’s Federal Court has finally closed the €5.4bn VW stake-building litigation, removing an 18-year legal overhang and the residual risk of an adverse appeal.</li>
<li>The ruling does not change our €34.36/share NAV, as we never deducted the claims from SOTP and Celle had already substantially de-risked the case in 2022.</li>
<li>PAH3 trades at a 28.6% discount to NAV. A 25% discount implies 5.1% upside; getting to 20%, or 12.1% upside, probably needs deleveraging or better VW/Porsche AG performance.</li>
</ul>


Germany’s Federal Court has finally closed the €5.4bn VW stake-building litigation, removing an 18-year legal overhang and the residual risk of an adverse appeal.
The ruling does not change our €34.36/share NAV, as we never deducted the claims from SOTP and Celle had already substantially de-risked the case in 2022.
PAH3 trades at a 28.6% discount to NAV. A 25% discount implies 5.1% upside; getting to 20%, or 12.1% upside, probably needs deleveraging or better VW/Porsche AG performance.


Porsche SE: What Was the €5.4bn Claim Worth?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition</li><li>China’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform Bites</li><li>Analysis: Could Global Oil Shock Trigger Imported Stagflation in China?</li></ul>

Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward AttritionChina’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform BitesAnalysis: Could Global Oil Shock Trigger Imported Stagflation in China?

CX Daily: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition 

<ul><li>In Depth: Thaw in China Relations Brings Good Vibes to Canada’s Energy, Agri-Food Businesses</li><li>U.S. Exporters Laud China Tariff Reprieve, but Scars Remain</li><li>Country Garden Wins Creditor Backing for $17.7 Billion Debt Restructuring</li></ul>

In Depth: Thaw in China Relations Brings Good Vibes to Canada’s Energy, Agri-Food BusinessesU.S. Exporters Laud China Tariff Reprieve, but Scars RemainCountry Garden Wins Creditor Backing for $17.7 Billion Debt Restructuring

CX Daily: Thaw in China Relations Brings Good Vibes to Canada’s Energy, Agri-Food Businesses 

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indian equities have delivered envious returns and consistently rewarded shareholders, showcasing superior per share earnings growth and a high number of firms with strong Return on Equity.  </li>
<li>While GDP grows robustly (projected 6.3% FY25, 6.4% 2026), earnings growth, robust household consumption (7.1% CAGR over 34 years), and increasing investments are key drivers.  </li>
<li>The FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential 12-15% Nifty returns driven by tailwinds, but current valuations and global risks necessitate a careful approach.</li>
</ul>


Indian equities have delivered envious returns and consistently rewarded shareholders, showcasing superior per share earnings growth and a high number of firms with strong Return on Equity.  
While GDP grows robustly (projected 6.3% FY25, 6.4% 2026), earnings growth, robust household consumption (7.1% CAGR over 34 years), and increasing investments are key drivers.  
The FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential 12-15% Nifty returns driven by tailwinds, but current valuations and global risks necessitate a careful approach.


Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?

<ul>
<li>Median discount tightened from -1.1% to -0.5%, but the mean widened to -3.7%, as several already-large discounts moved further away from parity.</li>
<li>Carlsberg was the largest widener at -18.8%, while Grifols reached -33.3% and MFE -28.3%, improving prospective returns from convergence trades.</li>
<li>Grifols and MFE stand out among new positions, while Ericsson’s B-only SEK15bn buyback remains the most relevant active capital-structure development.</li>
</ul>


Median discount tightened from -1.1% to -0.5%, but the mean widened to -3.7%, as several already-large discounts moved further away from parity.
Carlsberg was the largest widener at -18.8%, while Grifols reached -33.3% and MFE -28.3%, improving prospective returns from convergence trades.
Grifols and MFE stand out among new positions, while Ericsson’s B-only SEK15bn buyback remains the most relevant active capital-structure development.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September '26 Report

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (VOW GR)

Porsche SE: What Was the €5.4bn Claim Worth?

The €5.4bn VW litigation is finally over, but PAH3 already trades near its pre-Porsche AG historical discount. We assess what the ruling is worth...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CX Daily: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition

Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition China’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform Bites Analysis: Could...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: Thaw in China Relations Brings Good Vibes to Canada’s Energy, Agri-Food Businesses

TOP STORY In Depth: Thaw in China Relations Brings Good Vibes to Canada’s Energy, Agri-Food Businesses An air of optimism is returning to the...

Caixin Global

Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?

Indian equities have delivered strong returns with high EPS and RoE, driven by robust GDP & consumption. FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September '26 Report

September brought fresh dispersion: Carlsberg, Grifols and MFE widened sharply, improving convergence returns, while Ericsson's B-only buyback adds...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Porsche SE: What Was the €5.4bn Claim Worth?

The €5.4bn VW litigation is finally over, but PAH3 already trades near its pre-Porsche AG historical discount. We assess what the ruling is worth...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CX Daily: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition

Cover Story: U.S.-Israel War With Iran Drifts Toward Attrition China’s State Financial Managers Face Deep Pay Cuts as Reform Bites Analysis: Could...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: Thaw in China Relations Brings Good Vibes to Canada’s Energy, Agri-Food Businesses

TOP STORY In Depth: Thaw in China Relations Brings Good Vibes to Canada’s Energy, Agri-Food Businesses An air of optimism is returning to the...

Caixin Global

Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?

​Indian equities have delivered strong returns with high EPS and RoE, driven by robust GDP & consumption. FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September '26 Report

September brought fresh dispersion: Carlsberg, Grifols and MFE widened sharply, improving convergence returns, while Ericsson's B-only buyback adds...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Indian equities have delivered strong returns with high EPS and RoE, driven by robust GDP & consumption. FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic,...