European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during December. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.1% (vs. 47.1%); GBL, 36.6% (vs. 34.9%); Heineken Holding, 16.7% (vs. 14.5%);</li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 5.4% (vs.4.9%); Investor B, 13.5% (vs. 14.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 37.1% (vs. 39.9%).  The spread of Rio DLC widened to 24.2% (vs.17.2%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: in holding trades, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during December. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.1% (vs. 47.1%); GBL, 36.6% (vs. 34.9%); Heineken Holding, 16.7% (vs. 14.5%);
Industrivärden C, 5.4% (vs.4.9%); Investor B, 13.5% (vs. 14.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 37.1% (vs. 39.9%).  The spread of Rio DLC widened to 24.2% (vs.17.2%).
What seems interesting: in holding trades, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: December’23 Report

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Robosense Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (ROBO HK)</a> (RT) is now looking to raise up to US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, down from US$300-400m earlier.</li>
<li>As of Mar 23, it had earned design wins for mass production of LiDAR for 52 vehicles with 21OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, ranking No. 1 globally, according to CIC.</li>
<li>We looked at its past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.</li>
</ul>



Robosense Technology (ROBO HK) (RT) is now looking to raise up to US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, down from US$300-400m earlier.
As of Mar 23, it had earned design wins for mass production of LiDAR for 52 vehicles with 21OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, ranking No. 1 globally, according to CIC.
We looked at its past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.


Robosense Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - ADAS Sales Strong but Profitability Remains Distant

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (ROBO HK)</a> (RT) is looking to raise around US$400m (estimated) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </li>
<li>As of Mar 23, it had earned design wins for mass production of LiDAR for 52 vehicles with 21OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, ranking No. 1 globally, according to CIC.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Robosense Technology (ROBO HK) (RT) is looking to raise around US$400m (estimated) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
As of Mar 23, it had earned design wins for mass production of LiDAR for 52 vehicles with 21OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, ranking No. 1 globally, according to CIC.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Robosense Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Potential

<ul>
<li>The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have all tightened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.8%); GBL, 34.9% (vs. 35.5%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 14.9%);</li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 4.9% (vs. 6%); Investor B, 14.6% (vs. 16.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.9% (vs. 40.9%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 17.2% (vs. 21%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: holding trades, Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have all tightened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.8%); GBL, 34.9% (vs. 35.5%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 14.9%);
Industrivärden C, 4.9% (vs. 6%); Investor B, 14.6% (vs. 16.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.9% (vs. 40.9%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 17.2% (vs. 21%).
What seems interesting: holding trades, Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>My updated SOTP shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/porsche-automobil-holding-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21691:1" rel="noopener">Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)</a> is trading at a still massive 41.2% discount/NAV, implying that Porsche SE is liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims, maybe too harsh.</li>
<li>Recent rulings have been favourable. The discount is partly due to capital allocation leaning towards debt servicing. Porsche SE is trading at 2024e 2.6x Fwd P/E and 7.3% dividend yield.</li>
<li>Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG through a discounted and levered investment. Discount to NAV should systematically decrease.</li>
</ul>


My updated SOTP shows that Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR) is trading at a still massive 41.2% discount/NAV, implying that Porsche SE is liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims, maybe too harsh.
Recent rulings have been favourable. The discount is partly due to capital allocation leaning towards debt servicing. Porsche SE is trading at 2024e 2.6x Fwd P/E and 7.3% dividend yield.
Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG through a discounted and levered investment. Discount to NAV should systematically decrease.


Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (VOW GR)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: December’23 Report

Discounts to NAV for covered holdcos have mainloy widened during December. What seems interesting: Porsche Automobile Holding and Rio DLC.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Robosense Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - ADAS Sales Strong but Profitability Remains Distant

Robosense Technology (ROBO HK) (RT) is now looking to raise up to US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, down from US$300-400m earlier.

Sumeet Singh

Robosense Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Potential

Robosense filed its PHIP for an HK listing over the weekend. We looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes.

Sumeet Singh

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos tightened in November. Interesting trades, in my view, include Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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Selected European HoldCos and DLC: December’23 Report

​Discounts to NAV for covered holdcos have mainloy widened during December. What seems interesting: Porsche Automobile Holding and Rio DLC.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Robosense Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - ADAS Sales Strong but Profitability Remains Distant

Robosense Technology (ROBO HK) (RT) is now looking to raise up to US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, down from US$300-400m earlier.

Sumeet Singh

Robosense Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Potential

Robosense filed its PHIP for an HK listing over the weekend. We looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes.

Sumeet Singh

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

​Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos tightened in November. Interesting trades, in my view, include Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

​Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Discounts to NAV for covered holdcos have mainloy widened during December. What seems interesting: Porsche Automobile Holding and Rio DLC.

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos tightened in November. Interesting trades, in my view, include Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs....

Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...