Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> is forecast to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in March, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/formosa-chemicals-fibre" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3672:1" rel="noopener">Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will have 2 days of ADV to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> and 3 days of ADV to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/formosa-chemicals-fibre" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3672:1" rel="noopener">Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT)</a>. </li>
<li>Positioning does not appear to be high in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> while any price declines in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/formosa-chemicals-fibre" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3672:1" rel="noopener">Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT)</a> could be bought.</li>
</ul>



Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) is forecast to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in March, replacing Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT). 
Passive trackers will have 2 days of ADV to buy in Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) and 3 days of ADV to sell in Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT). 
Positioning does not appear to be high in Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) while any price declines in Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT) could be bought.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) Sailing Its Way In

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a>'s 25.9% YTD surge in share price is difficult to justify, as the load factor started to contract and the average freight rate declined.  </li>
<li>Transpacific and Asia-Europe freight rates plunged by 14.7% and 17.3% in 2Q25, respectively. The transpacific volume also registered the first YoY decline in the quarter. </li>
<li>Its P/B of 0.85x is 1SD above average, and is way higher than FY21-22. However, the FY25F earnings of US$1.5bn are incomparable to US$7-10bn in FY21-22.</li>
</ul>



Orient Overseas International (316 HK)'s 25.9% YTD surge in share price is difficult to justify, as the load factor started to contract and the average freight rate declined.  
Transpacific and Asia-Europe freight rates plunged by 14.7% and 17.3% in 2Q25, respectively. The transpacific volume also registered the first YoY decline in the quarter. 
Its P/B of 0.85x is 1SD above average, and is way higher than FY21-22. However, the FY25F earnings of US$1.5bn are incomparable to US$7-10bn in FY21-22.


Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> are currently in contention to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade around 0.5x ADV in the inclusions while impact on the forecast deletes is between 0.36-2.2x ADV.</li>
<li>Short interest has decreased and is near the lows for the forecast adds while short interest has been increasing in the forecast deletions.</li>
</ul>



Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) and Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) are currently in contention to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in December.
Passive trackers will need to trade around 0.5x ADV in the inclusions while impact on the forecast deletes is between 0.36-2.2x ADV.
Short interest has decreased and is near the lows for the forecast adds while short interest has been increasing in the forecast deletions.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Taiwan's two deep-sea container carriers reported a Y/Y decline in combined revenue in April</li>
<li>In USD terms, the two carriers' combined revenues are down -48% vs 2024 peak levels</li>
<li>Sector YTD &amp; Y/Y share performance do <em>not</em> reflect worsening fundamentals; stay SHORT</li>
</ul>


Taiwan's two deep-sea container carriers reported a Y/Y decline in combined revenue in April
In USD terms, the two carriers' combined revenues are down -48% vs 2024 peak levels
Sector YTD &amp; Y/Y share performance do not reflect worsening fundamentals; stay SHORT


Taiwan's Deep-Sea Carriers Saw Revenue Decline Y/Y in April, First Time Since Dec-2023 | Stay SHORT!

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity</li>
<li>In the company's core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323</li>
<li>We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines' main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)</li>
</ul>


So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity
In the company's core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323
We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines' main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

Taiwan

Wan Hai Lines Ltd. provides marine transportation and shipping agent services. The Company also purchases, sells, and leases vessels and containers as well as operates container freight stations.

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Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) Sailing Its Way In

Wan Hai Lines could replace Formosa Chem in the Top50 ETF in March. Passives need to buy 2x ADV in Wan Hai and sell 3x ADV in Formosa Chem....

Brian Freitas

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!

OOIL's share price surge is hard to justify as freight rates decline, volume decelerates and load factor contracts. Its P/B ratio is also above...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Shippers Sailing Back Into Indices

Wan Hai Lines and Yang Ming Marine could replace Alchip and Airtac. Short interest has moved lower for the adds and higher for the deletes. EPS...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan's Deep-Sea Carriers Saw Revenue Decline Y/Y in April, First Time Since Dec-2023 | Stay SHORT!

April revenue figures from Evergreen and Yang Ming suggest a sharp deterioration in fundamentals, which has not been reflected in YTD or Y/Y share...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

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