TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Netflix net add bogey appears to be for 2Q losses in the -2-3M range (guide was -2M), if it hits this number is irrelevant, the 3Q/2H22 guide is more important.</li>
<li>BBG was bullish on NFLX's quarter recently, but we think misses the forest from the trees regarding ever ramping competition. </li>
<li>Ad-Based Netflix subs *might* hit by end of 2022, but won't move the needle for 18 months.</li>
</ul>


Netflix net add bogey appears to be for 2Q losses in the -2-3M range (guide was -2M), if it hits this number is irrelevant, the 3Q/2H22 guide is more important.
BBG was bullish on NFLX's quarter recently, but we think misses the forest from the trees regarding ever ramping competition. 
Ad-Based Netflix subs *might* hit by end of 2022, but won't move the needle for 18 months.


Tactical TMT 2Q Earnings Trading Idea: Short NFLX

United States

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. operates as a media and entertainment company. The Company offers a complete portfolio of content, brands, and franchises across television, film, streaming, and gaming.

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Warner Bros Discovery (WBD US)

Tactical TMT 2Q Earnings Trading Idea: Short NFLX

Recent commentary that Netflix subscriber figures may be better than expected will prove irrelevant. Unrelenting competitive intensity will trigger...

Aaron Gabin

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