IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>’s offers from Hancock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).</li>
<li>A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.</li>
</ul>



Warrego Energy (WGO AU)’s offers from Hancock and Strike Energy (STX AU) close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).
A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.


<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/conexio-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19064:1" rel="noopener">Conexio Corp (9422 JP)</a>, Nippon Steel Trading.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), 111 Inc (YI US).
Lowest spreads - Essential Metals (ESS AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP), Conexio Corp (9422 JP), Nippon Steel Trading.


Merger Arb Mondays (23 Jan) - Origin Energy, Warrego, Golden Energy, Yashili, Kingston, O2Micro

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> placements, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a> continues to pre-market a US$1bn IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - China Internet (810 HK), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingston-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3566:1" rel="noopener">Kingston Financial (1031 HK)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - iQIYI Inc (IQ US), Bilibili Inc (BILI US) placements, VinFast (1905332D VN) continues to pre-market a US$1bn IPO.
Event-Driven developments - China Internet (810 HK), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Kingston Financial (1031 HK),  Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Olam Group (OLG SP), Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP). 


Weekly Deals Digest (22 Dec) - Kingston, Fengxiang, Yashili, Golden Energy, Olam, SSREIT, Warrego

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In its <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02619979-6A1131336?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Target Statement</a> released this afternoon, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a> has rejected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a>'s off-market scrip Offer.</li>
<li>Norwest concluded the Offer was opportunistic and did not boast an appropriate premium for control.</li>
<li>MinRes' Offer closes on the 6 February - unless extended.</li>
</ul>


In its Target Statement released this afternoon, Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU) has rejected Mineral Resources (MIN AU)'s off-market scrip Offer.
Norwest concluded the Offer was opportunistic and did not boast an appropriate premium for control.
MinRes' Offer closes on the 6 February - unless extended.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a>'s off-market takeover offer at 1 MIN share for every 1,367 NWE shares closes on 6 February. The target's statement will be despatched by early to mid-January.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a> Board recommends shareholders take no action. The timing is opportunistic and motivated by recent Perth Basin consolidation activity. </li>
<li>Hancock’s latest bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to reject the offer.</li>
</ul>



Mineral Resources (MIN AU)'s off-market takeover offer at 1 MIN share for every 1,367 NWE shares closes on 6 February. The target's statement will be despatched by early to mid-January.
The Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU) Board recommends shareholders take no action. The timing is opportunistic and motivated by recent Perth Basin consolidation activity. 
Hancock’s latest bid for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to reject the offer.


Norwest Energy (NWE AU): Valuation Read Across from Warrego’s Takeover Battle

Australia

Warrego Energy Limited operates as an oil and gas exploration company. The Company provides onshore oil and gas services. Warrego Energy serves customers in Western Australia, Spain, and Uruguay.

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Warrego Energy (WGO AU)

Warrego (WGO AU): End-Game Scenarios

Unlikely to see another bump as stretched valuations and deal fatigue sets in. Trading through Hancock's terms, the slim 1.3% spread to Strike’s...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (23 Jan) - Origin Energy, Warrego, Golden Energy, Yashili, Kingston, O2Micro

This week, the highest gross spreads are Alliance Aviation (36.5%), VNET (27.1%), Golden Energy (26.8%), Genesis (24.4%), Origin Energy (23.5%),...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (22 Dec) - Kingston, Fengxiang, Yashili, Golden Energy, Olam, SSREIT, Warrego

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Norwest, Origin, Warrego, CIIF, Fengxiang, Kingston, Yashili, Golden Energy, Olam,...

Arun George

Norwest Energy Rejects MinRes' Offer

MinRes needs to bump here. This is an easy win if they do. Take down borrow on MinRes and set up a Short MinRes, Long NWE

David Blennerhassett

Norwest Energy (NWE AU): Valuation Read Across from Warrego’s Takeover Battle

MinRes' offer is open. Hancock’s latest bid for Warrego suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to...

Arun George

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