Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Waymo hit $355M in annualized revenue in February 2026, up from approximately $284M at the end of 2025 and $125M at the end of 2024.</li><li>Waymo closed a $16 billion Series D funding round in February 2026 at a post-money valuation of $126 billion, more than 2x the October 2024 round that valued the company above $45 billion.</li><li>Management targets reaching 1 million weekly rides by the end of 2026, which would translate to an annual revenue run rate approaching $1.6 billion assuming current pricing levels hold steady.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Waymo hit $355M in annualized revenue in February 2026, up from approximately $284M at the end of 2025 and $125M at the end of 2024.Waymo closed a $16 billion Series D funding round in February 2026 at a post-money valuation of $126 billion, more than 2x the October 2024 round that valued the company above $45 billion.Management targets reaching 1 million weekly rides by the end of 2026, which would translate to an annual revenue run rate approaching $1.6 billion assuming current pricing levels hold steady.

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<li>Two companies emerged from the first wave with the balance sheets and data to lead: Waymo, backed by $27B+ in cumulative Alphabet funding and generating a Sacra-estimated $355M in annualized revenue as of February 2026 across ~500,000 weekly paid rides in 11 U.S. cities, and Tesla, which is building its robotaxi on top of a consumer self-driving fleet of 7M+ vehicles generating ~1 billion miles of driving data per month.</li>
<li>The market is sorting into four layers: 1) vertically integrated robotaxi operators like Waymo, Tesla and Zoox that own the vehicle, the autonomy stack, the fleet and the customer relationship, 2) B2B software companies that license the AI driving brain to OEMs like Wayve, Applied Intuition, Mobileye and Nuro, 3) demand aggregators like Uber that route riders to whichever autonomous vehicle is nearest, and 4) fleet infrastructure providers like Moove ($400M ARR in June 2025, up from $275M in 2024), Vay and Avis that finance, maintain and operate the physical cars.</li>
<li>While Uber is profitable with a demand-aggregation model that can plug in any autonomous vehicle, Waymo has the most advanced full-stack robotaxi operation but burns ~$5B+ a year, a gap that explains their frenemy partnership dynamics where Waymo trades a cut of every Uber-routed fare for the demand density it needs while it races to drive vehicle costs down from ~$175K per Jaguar I-PACE toward a target of sub-$50K with a prospective Hyundai deal while pushing utilization from 35% toward 55%+.</li>
</ul>


Two companies emerged from the first wave with the balance sheets and data to lead: Waymo, backed by $27B+ in cumulative Alphabet funding and generating a Sacra-estimated $355M in annualized revenue as of February 2026 across ~500,000 weekly paid rides in 11 U.S. cities, and Tesla, which is building its robotaxi on top of a consumer self-driving fleet of 7M+ vehicles generating ~1 billion miles of driving data per month.
The market is sorting into four layers: 1) vertically integrated robotaxi operators like Waymo, Tesla and Zoox that own the vehicle, the autonomy stack, the fleet and the customer relationship, 2) B2B software companies that license the AI driving brain to OEMs like Wayve, Applied Intuition, Mobileye and Nuro, 3) demand aggregators like Uber that route riders to whichever autonomous vehicle is nearest, and 4) fleet infrastructure providers like Moove ($400M ARR in June 2025, up from $275M in 2024), Vay and Avis that finance, maintain and operate the physical cars.
While Uber is profitable with a demand-aggregation model that can plug in any autonomous vehicle, Waymo has the most advanced full-stack robotaxi operation but burns ~$5B+ a year, a gap that explains their frenemy partnership dynamics where Waymo trades a cut of every Uber-routed fare for the demand density it needs while it races to drive vehicle costs down from ~$175K per Jaguar I-PACE toward a target of sub-$50K with a prospective Hyundai deal while pushing utilization from 35% toward 55%+.


<ul><li>Waymo is the first AV company to prove real consumer demand and operational autonomy at scale, but the bull case depends on converting a capital-intensive, city-by-city fleet business into a high-utilization transportation network whose hardware cost curve falls faster than pricing pressure from Tesla, Baidu, and other AV operators.</li><li>Waymo’s strategy has been focused on launching autonomous ride hailing within geofenced, validated service areas, a progressive operational roll out, then expanding that geofence within that city and launching city-by-city to serve more geographies (now 10 metropolitan areas).</li><li>With the upside of replacing car ownership at stake, Waymo has chosen to optimize for speed in scaling city rollout with a mixed go-to-market that includes its own app Waymo One, contracting with Moove ($400M ARR in June 2025, up from $275M in 2024) on vehicle ops, charging and maintenance & partnering with Uber to supply Uber’s marketplace with Waymo cars (20% of Uber rides in Austin) & drivers to rent Uber demand & distribution and scale city rollout faster.</li></ul>

Waymo is the first AV company to prove real consumer demand and operational autonomy at scale, but the bull case depends on converting a capital-intensive, city-by-city fleet business into a high-utilization transportation network whose hardware cost curve falls faster than pricing pressure from Tesla, Baidu, and other AV operators.Waymo’s strategy has been focused on launching autonomous ride hailing within geofenced, validated service areas, a progressive operational roll out, then expanding that geofence within that city and launching city-by-city to serve more geographies (now 10 metropolitan areas).With the upside of replacing car ownership at stake, Waymo has chosen to optimize for speed in scaling city rollout with a mixed go-to-market that includes its own app Waymo One, contracting with Moove ($400M ARR in June 2025, up from $275M in 2024) on vehicle ops, charging and maintenance & partnering with Uber to supply Uber’s marketplace with Waymo cars (20% of Uber rides in Austin) & drivers to rent Uber demand & distribution and scale city rollout faster.

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> reported a sharp contrast between revenue growth and margin erosion. The statewide approval is efficient, but it will not happen next year either. </li>
<li>The management warned of high CapEx that will keep free cash flow under pressure. </li>
<li>No indication of turnaround yet; thus, it is not too late to short the stock. </li>
</ul>



Tesla (TSLA US) reported a sharp contrast between revenue growth and margin erosion. The statewide approval is efficient, but it will not happen next year either. 
The management warned of high CapEx that will keep free cash flow under pressure. 
No indication of turnaround yet; thus, it is not too late to short the stock. 


Applied Intuition / Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Sacra estimates Applied Intuition hit $830M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in 2025, up 2x from $415M in 2024.</li><li>Applied Intuition was valued at $15 billion following its $600 million Series F round and tender offer co-led by BlackRock-managed funds and Kleiner Perkins in June 2025.</li><li>The company monetizes through annual software licenses priced based on the number of engineering seats, scale of simulation workloads, and specific modules deployed.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates Applied Intuition hit $830M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in 2025, up 2x from $415M in 2024.Applied Intuition was valued at $15 billion following its $600 million Series F round and tender offer co-led by BlackRock-managed funds and Kleiner Perkins in June 2025.The company monetizes through annual software licenses priced based on the number of engineering seats, scale of simulation workloads, and specific modules deployed.

United States

Autonomous ride-hailing service using self-driving electric vehicles in urban environments

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Waymo (WAYMO US)

Primer: Waymo - 24 Aug 2026

Autonomous ride-hailing service using self-driving electric vehicles in urban environments

Sacra

Booking.Com Of Robotaxi

TL;DR: After $30B+ burned in the first AV wave, end-to-end neural networks have made autonomous driving viable again with vertically integrated...

Sacra

Waymo Vs. Tesla Vs. Baidu

TL;DR: Waymo is the first AV company to prove real consumer demand and operational autonomy at scale, but the bull case depends on converting a...

Sacra

Tesla (TSLA): High CapEx on Sight

Tesla reported revenue growth but margin erosion, with high CapEx keeping free cash flow under pressure. Not too late to short the stock.

Henry Soediarko

Primer: Applied Intuition - 14 Jul 2026

Software suite for simulating, testing, and deploying autonomous vehicle systems across industries

Sacra

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52-week Range

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Primer: Waymo - 24 Aug 2026

Autonomous ride-hailing service using self-driving electric vehicles in urban environments

Sacra

Booking.Com Of Robotaxi

TL;DR: After $30B+ burned in the first AV wave, end-to-end neural networks have made autonomous driving viable again with vertically integrated...

Sacra

Waymo Vs. Tesla Vs. Baidu

TL;DR: Waymo is the first AV company to prove real consumer demand and operational autonomy at scale, but the bull case depends on converting a...

Sacra

Tesla (TSLA): High CapEx on Sight

​Tesla reported revenue growth but margin erosion, with high CapEx keeping free cash flow under pressure. Not too late to short the stock.

Henry Soediarko

Primer: Applied Intuition - 14 Jul 2026

Software suite for simulating, testing, and deploying autonomous vehicle systems across industries

Sacra

Tesla reported revenue growth but margin erosion, with high CapEx keeping free cash flow under pressure. Not too late to short the stock.