China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weibo’s 1Q23 top line was in line with our est., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 6.5%/ 7.6%, due to cost-saving measures. </li>
<li>While we dial down its 2Q23 revenue forecast, we remain optimistic about its growth in 2H23, as more brand advertisers gradually recover. </li>
<li>Maintain BUY and TP unchanged, which implies 12X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Weibo’s 1Q23 top line was in line with our est., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 6.5%/ 7.6%, due to cost-saving measures. 
While we dial down its 2Q23 revenue forecast, we remain optimistic about its growth in 2H23, as more brand advertisers gradually recover. 
Maintain BUY and TP unchanged, which implies 12X PE in 2023.


Weibo (WB US, BUY, TP US$26.9) Earnings Review: Maintain BUY for Margin Improvement

<ul>
<li>Weibo’s 4Q22 top line was in line with our est., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 34%/46%, due to reverse of a contingent payment agreement with Jiamian Tech. </li>
<li>While we raise its revenue forecast in 2023, we also expect its costs and expenses to rebound due to the recovery of offline promotion events.</li>
<li>Maintain BUY and TP unchanged, which implies 13X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Weibo’s 4Q22 top line was in line with our est., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 34%/46%, due to reverse of a contingent payment agreement with Jiamian Tech. 
While we raise its revenue forecast in 2023, we also expect its costs and expenses to rebound due to the recovery of offline promotion events.
Maintain BUY and TP unchanged, which implies 13X PE in 2023.


[Weibo (WB US) Earnings Review]: Maintain BUY for Ads Recovery in Coming Quarters

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Weibo reported 4Q22 financial results on 1 Mar. 4Q22 total revenue declined by 27% YoY (-20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$448mn, in line with our and consensus estimate.</li><li>FY22 total revenue was down by 19% YoY to US$1.8bn, mainly due to macro headwind and COVID-19 impact.</li><li>4Q22 nonGAAP net income dropped by 9% YoY to US$179mn, beating the consensus estimate of US$122mn, primarily due to effective expense control and reversal of US$58.8mn compensation expenses. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo reported 4Q22 financial results on 1 Mar. 4Q22 total revenue declined by 27% YoY (-20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$448mn, in line with our and consensus estimate.FY22 total revenue was down by 19% YoY to US$1.8bn, mainly due to macro headwind and COVID-19 impact.4Q22 nonGAAP net income dropped by 9% YoY to US$179mn, beating the consensus estimate of US$122mn, primarily due to effective expense control and reversal of US$58.8mn compensation expenses. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) – Gradual revenue and margin recovery in FY23

<ul>
<li>We estimate that Weibo’s top line/bottom line would be 1.3%/9.0% vs cons., as the continuous cost-saving measures offset the impacts of temporary disturbance caused by reopening. </li>
<li>We remain optimistic about Weibo’s rebound in 1H23 as the macro improves, with top line/bottom line beating cons. by 2.2%/5.5% in 2023.</li>
<li>Reiterate BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 26.9, implying 11.7X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


We estimate that Weibo’s top line/bottom line would be 1.3%/9.0% vs cons., as the continuous cost-saving measures offset the impacts of temporary disturbance caused by reopening. 
We remain optimistic about Weibo’s rebound in 1H23 as the macro improves, with top line/bottom line beating cons. by 2.2%/5.5% in 2023.
Reiterate BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 26.9, implying 11.7X PE in 2023.


[Weibo (WB US) Target Price Change]: Rebound After Temporary Disturbance, Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Weibo faced pressure in 4Q22E due to tighter regulations on entertainment content and extreme disruptions on ads promotions from resurgence of COVID in Dec 2022.</li><li>Hence, we lower FY22/4Q22E total revenue forecast by 1/4%. Market now looks ahead to recovery potential in online ads demand, driven by China’s reopening and consumption recovery.</li><li>The speed of economic activities recovery post Chinese New Year is ahead of our previous expectation, which should support Weibo’s revenue recovery in FY23E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo faced pressure in 4Q22E due to tighter regulations on entertainment content and extreme disruptions on ads promotions from resurgence of COVID in Dec 2022.Hence, we lower FY22/4Q22E total revenue forecast by 1/4%. Market now looks ahead to recovery potential in online ads demand, driven by China’s reopening and consumption recovery.The speed of economic activities recovery post Chinese New Year is ahead of our previous expectation, which should support Weibo’s revenue recovery in FY23E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) – Recovery on the horizon despite ST pressure

China

Weibo Corp is a social media platform for people to create, distribute and discover Chinese-language content.  The Company offers users public self-expression in real time with a powerful platform for social interaction, as well as content aggregation and distribution.

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Weibo Corp (WB US)

Weibo (WB US, BUY, TP US$26.9) Earnings Review: Maintain BUY for Margin Improvement

While we dial down its 2Q23 revenue forecast, we remain optimistic about its growth in 2H23, as more brand advertisers gradually recover. Maintain...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Weibo (WB US) Earnings Review]: Maintain BUY for Ads Recovery in Coming Quarters

While we raise its revenue forecast in 2023, we also expect its costs and expenses to rebound. Maintain BUY and TP unchanged, which implies 13X PE...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Weibo (WB US) – Gradual revenue and margin recovery in FY23

Weibo reported 4Q22 financial results on 1 Mar. 4Q22 total revenue declined by 27% YoY (-20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$448mn, in line...

CMB International

[Weibo (WB US) Target Price Change]: Rebound After Temporary Disturbance, Maintain BUY

We estimate that Weibo’s top line/bottom line would be 1.3%/9.0% vs cons., as the continuous cost-saving measures offset the impacts of temporary...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Weibo (WB US) – Recovery on the horizon despite ST pressure

Weibo faced pressure in 4Q22E due to tighter regulations on entertainment content and extreme disruptions on ads promotions from resurgence of...

CMB International

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