Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Earnings results have differed in the recently concluded C3Q24. Performance ads in home electronics, 3C, auto, entertainment and travel have benefited from recovery in consumption; </li>
<li>Heading into C4Q24, we expect rebound in real estate to benefit property ads, and the continuing warm up in consumption to spread to e-commerce (apparel and cosmetics);</li>
<li>We expect trade-in subsidies for home electronics and electrical vehicles to renew in C1Q25 and further stimulus to encourage consumption in travel and catering to be announced. </li>
</ul>


Earnings results have differed in the recently concluded C3Q24. Performance ads in home electronics, 3C, auto, entertainment and travel have benefited from recovery in consumption; 
Heading into C4Q24, we expect rebound in real estate to benefit property ads, and the continuing warm up in consumption to spread to e-commerce (apparel and cosmetics);
We expect trade-in subsidies for home electronics and electrical vehicles to renew in C1Q25 and further stimulus to encourage consumption in travel and catering to be announced. 


Stimulus Policies Are Now the Biggest Determinant of Internet Ads Performances

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Weibo announced 3Q24 results on 19 Nov: net revenue was up by 5% YoY (+3% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$465mn, 7% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates thanks to the stabilization of advertising revenue and better-than-expected growth of VAS revenue; non-GAAP net income grew by 2% YoY to US$139mn, beating consensus by 16% mainly due to top-line outperformance and enhanced operating efficiency.</li><li>Looking ahead, management is cautiously optimistic about the policy stimulus on the macro economy, but expects it will take time for the policy to show effects.</li><li>For 4Q24E, we forecast ad revenue to decline by 4% YoY on a constant currency basis, primarily due to the high-base effect and soft ad demand from certain consumption-related verticals. W</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo announced 3Q24 results on 19 Nov: net revenue was up by 5% YoY (+3% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$465mn, 7% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates thanks to the stabilization of advertising revenue and better-than-expected growth of VAS revenue; non-GAAP net income grew by 2% YoY to US$139mn, beating consensus by 16% mainly due to top-line outperformance and enhanced operating efficiency.Looking ahead, management is cautiously optimistic about the policy stimulus on the macro economy, but expects it will take time for the policy to show effects.For 4Q24E, we forecast ad revenue to decline by 4% YoY on a constant currency basis, primarily due to the high-base effect and soft ad demand from certain consumption-related verticals. WContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) - 3Q24 Results Beat on Olympic Event; 4Q24 Outlook Remains Under Pressure

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Tencent Music Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market sectors outperforming since the stimulus in September are Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare as Utilities, Telecom and Energy lag.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crrc-corp-ltd-461535b2-37ac-4589-b4d9-8b71c06c43b8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:124:1" rel="noopener">CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK)</a> gets BUY recommendations as its results point to continued strength in the rail equipment sector with passenger volume surging.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> reported solid results as it shifts to a pay-to-stream subscription model. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> had a blowout quarter with EV sales surging.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market sectors outperforming since the stimulus in September are Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare as Utilities, Telecom and Energy lag.

CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK) gets BUY recommendations as its results point to continued strength in the rail equipment sector with passenger volume surging.


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) reported solid results as it shifts to a pay-to-stream subscription model. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) had a blowout quarter with EV sales surging.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> is an inexpensive profitable large social media company in China</li>
<li>Weibo generates a large cash flow which it uses to pay a 9% dividend yield</li>
<li>Weibo has synergies with Alibaba's core e-commerce business and fits well within its other media company ecosystem</li>
</ul>



Weibo (9898 HK) is an inexpensive profitable large social media company in China
Weibo generates a large cash flow which it uses to pay a 9% dividend yield
Weibo has synergies with Alibaba's core e-commerce business and fits well within its other media company ecosystem


BABA's Babies: They're All Grown Now! Weibo the Twitter of China

<ul>
<li>The conglomerate sector continues to show momentum in Hong Kong while the materials and energy sectors lag</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> was rated a BUY as valuations and potential catalysts from parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> could support a higher stock price.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a> was upgraded to BUY with higher higher price target due to profit increase. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> was initiated with a BUY with strong upside.
</li>
</ul>


The conglomerate sector continues to show momentum in Hong Kong while the materials and energy sectors lag

Weibo (9898 HK)Weibo Corp (WB US) was rated a BUY as valuations and potential catalysts from parent Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) could support a higher stock price.


China East Education (667 HK) was upgraded to BUY with higher higher price target due to profit increase. Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) was initiated with a BUY with strong upside.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)

China

Weibo Corp is a social media platform for people to create, distribute and discover Chinese-language content.  The Company offers users public self-expression in real time with a powerful platform for social interaction, as well as content aggregation and distribution.

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Weibo Corp (WB US)

Stimulus Policies Are Now the Biggest Determinant of Internet Ads Performances

C3Q24 earnings show ad performances are highly correlated with stimulus spending. We expect continuing stimulus to sustain the benefit and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Weibo (WB US) - 3Q24 Results Beat on Olympic Event; 4Q24 Outlook Remains Under Pressure

Weibo announced 3Q24 results on 19 Nov: net revenue was up by 5% YoY (+3% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$465mn, 7% ahead of Bloomberg...

CMB International

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

Hong Kong has seen its Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors perform well since the stimulus in September. CRCC has had several buy...

David Mudd

BABA's Babies: They're All Grown Now! Weibo the Twitter of China

WB is up 60% over the past few days. Citi put the company on its "90-day positive catalyst watch list" with a US$12 price target. The upcoming...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)

Conglomerate stocks in Hong Kong have outperformed this month. Weibo target price is upgraded and Dongfang Electric is intiated BUY. CEE saw a...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Stimulus Policies Are Now the Biggest Determinant of Internet Ads Performances

​C3Q24 earnings show ad performances are highly correlated with stimulus spending. We expect continuing stimulus to sustain the benefit and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Weibo (WB US) - 3Q24 Results Beat on Olympic Event; 4Q24 Outlook Remains Under Pressure

Weibo announced 3Q24 results on 19 Nov: net revenue was up by 5% YoY (+3% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$465mn, 7% ahead of Bloomberg...

CMB International

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

Hong Kong has seen its Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors perform well since the stimulus in September. CRCC has had several buy...

David Mudd

BABA's Babies: They're All Grown Now! Weibo the Twitter of China

WB is up 60% over the past few days. Citi put the company on its "90-day positive catalyst watch list" with a US$12 price target. The upcoming...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)

Conglomerate stocks in Hong Kong have outperformed this month. Weibo target price is upgraded and Dongfang Electric is intiated BUY. CEE saw a...

David Mudd

C3Q24 earnings show ad performances are highly correlated with stimulus spending. We expect continuing stimulus to sustain the benefit and...