Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market continues in an upward trend after breaking resistance at 27100 last month.  The next resistance level is 28000.  Southbound flows have accelerated over the last week. </li>
<li>The energy, conglomerates, and property sectors outperformed the materials sector in 2026.  Momentum and value have been the top factors for performance YTD.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-sanhua-intelligent-controls-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45277:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK)</a> was initiated with OUTPERFORM at Shenwan Hongyuan Research.  The manufacturer of air-conditioning and refrigeration components has expanded into energy storage, automotive thermal management, and robotics.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market continues in an upward trend after breaking resistance at 27100 last month.  The next resistance level is 28000.  Southbound flows have accelerated over the last week. 
The energy, conglomerates, and property sectors outperformed the materials sector in 2026.  Momentum and value have been the top factors for performance YTD.

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) was initiated with OUTPERFORM at Shenwan Hongyuan Research.  The manufacturer of air-conditioning and refrigeration components has expanded into energy storage, automotive thermal management, and robotics.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (February 10)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Supportive policies from central and local governments on the development of the hydrogen energy industry have boosted the share prices of the sector (up 12.3% YTD).</li>
<li>Inner Mongolia has eased regulations on electrolysis water hydrogen production projects while Shandong has waived hydrogen-powered vehicle tolls on highways. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-sinohytec-co-ltd-57df3cd9-bd23-4f74-899b-d589f67fa85f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36866:1" rel="noopener">Beijing SinoHytec (2402 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weichai-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12508:1" rel="noopener">Weichai Power (2338 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongyue-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20429:1" rel="noopener">Dongyue Group (189 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric (3899 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> have recorded good progress in hydrogen business.</li>
</ul>


Supportive policies from central and local governments on the development of the hydrogen energy industry have boosted the share prices of the sector (up 12.3% YTD).
Inner Mongolia has eased regulations on electrolysis water hydrogen production projects while Shandong has waived hydrogen-powered vehicle tolls on highways. 

Beijing SinoHytec (2402 HK), Weichai Power (2338 HK), Dongyue Group (189 HK), CIMC Enric (3899 HK), and Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) have recorded good progress in hydrogen business.


China's Hydrogen Economy: Re-Igniting Interests

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the announcement of the changes in June, we forecast 5 potential constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers are estimated to trade between 0.05 to 0.65 days of ADV in the forecast changes.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 2 months and the recent pullback offers an entry point into the implementation trade.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the announcement of the changes in June, we forecast 5 potential constituent changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK). 
Passive trackers are estimated to trade between 0.05 to 0.65 days of ADV in the forecast changes.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 2 months and the recent pullback offers an entry point into the implementation trade.


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes in June as the AI-Driven Churn Continues

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> ETF in March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and need to sell between 0.4-1.2x ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>Short interest is highest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">ZTE Corp (763 HK)</a> (as a percentage of float) and in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)</a> (in terms of days of ADV to cover).</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and need to sell between 0.4-1.2x ADV in the deletes.
Short interest is highest in ZTE Corp (763 HK) (as a percentage of float) and in China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK) (in terms of days of ADV to cover).


FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect HDT industry demand growth to slow to 3% YoY in 2026E (from 21% in 2025E), due to the high base following the accelerated sales growth since mid-2025.</li><li>That said, for Weichai, we expect the explosive growth of backup power engines for data centres will continue to gain traction (more details in our 2026 sector outlook published today (link)).</li><li>We forecast Weichai’s total engine sales volume (all types) to grow 8%/3% in 2025E/26E along with margin expansion, driven by elevated HDT demand in 2026E and higher contribution from high-margin data centre engines. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect HDT industry demand growth to slow to 3% YoY in 2026E (from 21% in 2025E), due to the high base following the accelerated sales growth since mid-2025.That said, for Weichai, we expect the explosive growth of backup power engines for data centres will continue to gain traction (more details in our 2026 sector outlook published today (link)).We forecast Weichai’s total engine sales volume (all types) to grow 8%/3% in 2025E/26E along with margin expansion, driven by elevated HDT demand in 2026E and higher contribution from high-margin data centre engines. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weichai Power (2338 HK/000338 CH) - Expect HDT Engines Growth to Slow in 2026E...

China

Weichai Power is a Chinese industrial technology company specializing in the research, development, and manufacturing of powertrains, vehicles, and key components such as engines, transmissions, and axles. The company also offers intelligent logistics solutions, including forklifts and warehousing services, and is actively developing new energy technologies like hydrogen fuel cells. Weichai Power was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Weifang, Shandong, China.

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Weichai Power (2338 HK)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (February 10)

Hong Kong market continues in an upward trend after breaking resistance at 27100 last month. The next resistance level is 28000. Southbound flows...

David Mudd

China's Hydrogen Economy: Re-Igniting Interests

Sichuan province held "the conference on further promoting the development and promotion of the entire green hydrogen industry chain" in the last...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes in June as the AI-Driven Churn Continues

There could be 5 changes in June as the AI theme rolls on and beneficiaries replace old economy stocks. The recent pullback after the earlier...

Brian Freitas

FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in March

There could be 2 constituent changes for the FXI ETF in March. Passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.4-1.2x...

Brian Freitas

Weichai Power (2338 HK/000338 CH) - Expect HDT Engines Growth to Slow in 2026E...

We expect HDT industry demand growth to slow to 3% YoY in 2026E (from 21% in 2025E), due to the high base following the accelerated sales growth...

CMB International

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