HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Supportive policies from central and local governments on the development of the hydrogen energy industry have boosted the share prices of the sector (up 12.3% YTD).</li>
<li>Inner Mongolia has eased regulations on electrolysis water hydrogen production projects while Shandong has waived hydrogen-powered vehicle tolls on highways. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-sinohytec-co-ltd-57df3cd9-bd23-4f74-899b-d589f67fa85f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36866:1" rel="noopener">Beijing SinoHytec (2402 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weichai-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12508:1" rel="noopener">Weichai Power (2338 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongyue-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20429:1" rel="noopener">Dongyue Group (189 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric (3899 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> have recorded good progress in hydrogen business.</li>
</ul>


Supportive policies from central and local governments on the development of the hydrogen energy industry have boosted the share prices of the sector (up 12.3% YTD).
Inner Mongolia has eased regulations on electrolysis water hydrogen production projects while Shandong has waived hydrogen-powered vehicle tolls on highways. 

Beijing SinoHytec (2402 HK), Weichai Power (2338 HK), Dongyue Group (189 HK), CIMC Enric (3899 HK), and Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) have recorded good progress in hydrogen business.


China's Hydrogen Economy: Re-Igniting Interests

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 3Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the outflows in 3Q2026 were US$12,576 million and holdings were US$386 billion.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, CMB, WUXI APPTEC, PING AN INSURANCE, MIDEA.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 3Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the outflows in 3Q2026 were US$12,576 million and holdings were US$386 billion.
We highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, CMB, WUXI APPTEC, PING AN INSURANCE, MIDEA.


Northbound Flows (3Q2026): CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING

Index Rebalance

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We screen for HSI ADD candidates ahead of the review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.</li>
<li>Four stocks are screened as mid-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.</li>
<li>Three of the four are in the most underweight industry group, and the fourth is in Healthcare.</li>
</ul>


We screen for HSI ADD candidates ahead of the review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.
Four stocks are screened as mid-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.
Three of the four are in the most underweight industry group, and the fourth is in Healthcare.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> ETF in March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and need to sell between 0.4-1.2x ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>Short interest is highest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">ZTE Corp (763 HK)</a> (as a percentage of float) and in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)</a> (in terms of days of ADV to cover).</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and need to sell between 0.4-1.2x ADV in the deletes.
Short interest is highest in ZTE Corp (763 HK) (as a percentage of float) and in China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK) (in terms of days of ADV to cover).


FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in March

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 200 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 92.3% as of Oct 9th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, industrials, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 200 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 92.3% as of Oct 9th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, industrials, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

China

Weichai Power is a Chinese industrial technology company specializing in the research, development, and manufacturing of powertrains, vehicles, and key components such as engines, transmissions, and axles. The company also offers intelligent logistics solutions, including forklifts and warehousing services, and is actively developing new energy technologies like hydrogen fuel cells. Weichai Power was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Weifang, Shandong, China.

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Weichai Power (2338 HK)

China's Hydrogen Economy: Re-Igniting Interests

Sichuan province held "the conference on further promoting the development and promotion of the entire green hydrogen industry chain" in the last...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Northbound Flows (3Q2026): CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 3Q2026 and highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect 4 mid-conviction ADDs with no DELETE, and Energy, Materials, Industrials, Conglomerates remains the most underweight industry group in...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in March

There could be 2 constituent changes for the FXI ETF in March. Passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.4-1.2x...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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