IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> possible H Share buyback offer, excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-marine-cntnrs-gp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11752:1" rel="noopener">China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)</a>’s shares, is HK$7.00, an 8.7% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There could also be a 90% minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>The offer is light, but independent H shareholders holding blocking stakes will likely be supportive. The final offer will be made on “same or better terms”, suggesting a potential bump.</li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) possible H Share buyback offer, excluding China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)’s shares, is HK$7.00, an 8.7% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There could also be a 90% minimum acceptance condition.
The offer is light, but independent H shareholders holding blocking stakes will likely be supportive. The final offer will be made on “same or better terms”, suggesting a potential bump.


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Possible H Share Buyback Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (16 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>Hs with H/A pairs outperform their As on average with higher-liquidity Hs outperforming more. High Premium As not seeing shrinking premia on average.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND were net sells overall. It looked like the combination of NORTHBOUND and SOUTHBOUND put on a long H short A in the non-bank financial sector.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (16 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Hs with H/A pairs outperform their As on average with higher-liquidity Hs outperforming more. High Premium As not seeing shrinking premia on average.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND were net sells overall. It looked like the combination of NORTHBOUND and SOUTHBOUND put on a long H short A in the non-bank financial sector.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 Nov): H up Vs A Despite SOUTHBOUND Net Selling; High Div SOEs Normalising

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Weichai Power Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>According to CICEIA, Weichai Power (2338 HK/000338 CH, BUY) delivered 71% YoY growth of multi-cylinder diesel engine sales volume in Oct, the highest growth rate since Apr.</li><li>The growth is also higher than the industry sales volume growth of multi-cylinder engine for commercial vehicles (+52% YoY).</li><li>Based on our calculation, Weichai’s market share in multi-cylinder diesel engine reached 22.1% in Oct, up from 19.3% in Sep and 16.1% in Oct 2022.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

According to CICEIA, Weichai Power (2338 HK/000338 CH, BUY) delivered 71% YoY growth of multi-cylinder diesel engine sales volume in Oct, the highest growth rate since Apr.The growth is also higher than the industry sales volume growth of multi-cylinder engine for commercial vehicles (+52% YoY).Based on our calculation, Weichai’s market share in multi-cylinder diesel engine reached 22.1% in Oct, up from 19.3% in Sep and 16.1% in Oct 2022.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Heavy Duty Truck – Weichai’s Multi-Cylinder Engine Sales +71% YoY

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The large price spread between LNG and diesel continued to boost the sales volume of natural gas heavy-duty trucks (HDT).</li><li>According to the preliminary data from Cvworld, the industry sales volume of gas HDT surged 14.8x YoY to 23k units in Oct, representing 29% of the total HDT sold.</li><li>In 10M23, sales volume of gas HDT surged 3.1x YoY to ~130k units, accounting for ~17% of total HDT sold.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The large price spread between LNG and diesel continued to boost the sales volume of natural gas heavy-duty trucks (HDT).According to the preliminary data from Cvworld, the industry sales volume of gas HDT surged 14.8x YoY to 23k units in Oct, representing 29% of the total HDT sold.In 10M23, sales volume of gas HDT surged 3.1x YoY to ~130k units, accounting for ~17% of total HDT sold.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Heavy Duty Truck – Natural Gas HDT +14.8x YoY in Oct on Low Base

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 121.6% as of Nov 10th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.1ppt week on week, led by information technology, utilities, communication services and offset by consumer discretionary, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Ping An Insurance, Ganfeng Lithium, Gwmotor, China Longyuan.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 121.6% as of Nov 10th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.1ppt week on week, led by information technology, utilities, communication services and offset by consumer discretionary, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Ping An Insurance, Ganfeng Lithium, Gwmotor, China Longyuan.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 10th): Ping An Insurance, Ganfeng Lithium, GWM, China Longyuan

China

Weichai Power Co., Ltd. specializes in the research and development, manufacturing and sales of vehicles and parts. The Company produces engines, heavy vehicles, light vehicles, construction machinery, hydraulic products, automotive electronics, and related parts. Weichai Power markets its products across worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Weichai Power (000338 CH)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 Nov): H up Vs A Despite SOUTHBOUND Net Selling; High Div SOEs Normalising

A/H premia on average narrowed somewhat despite SOUTHBOUND net selling this week both on a universal and H/A pair space basis. High Div SOEs have...

Travis Lundy

China Heavy Duty Truck – Weichai’s Multi-Cylinder Engine Sales +71% YoY

According to CICEIA, Weichai Power (2338 HK/000338 CH, BUY) delivered 71% YoY growth of multi-cylinder diesel engine sales volume in Oct, the...

CMB International

China Heavy Duty Truck – Natural Gas HDT +14.8x YoY in Oct on Low Base

The large price spread between LNG and diesel continued to boost the sales volume of natural gas heavy-duty trucks (HDT).

CMB International

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 10th): Ping An Insurance, Ganfeng Lithium, GWM, China Longyuan

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Ping An Insurance, Ganfeng Lithium, Gwmotor, China Longyuan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Possible H Share Buyback Offer

The offer is light, but independent H shareholders holding blocking stakes will likely be supportive. The final offer will be made on “same or...

Arun George

A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 Nov): H up Vs A Despite SOUTHBOUND Net Selling; High Div SOEs Normalising

A/H premia on average narrowed somewhat despite SOUTHBOUND net selling this week both on a universal and H/A pair space basis. High Div SOEs have...

Travis Lundy

China Heavy Duty Truck – Weichai’s Multi-Cylinder Engine Sales +71% YoY

According to CICEIA, Weichai Power (2338 HK/000338 CH, BUY) delivered 71% YoY growth of multi-cylinder diesel engine sales volume in Oct, the...

CMB International

China Heavy Duty Truck – Natural Gas HDT +14.8x YoY in Oct on Low Base

The large price spread between LNG and diesel continued to boost the sales volume of natural gas heavy-duty trucks (HDT).

CMB International

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 10th): Ping An Insurance, Ganfeng Lithium, GWM, China Longyuan

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Ping An Insurance, Ganfeng Lithium, Gwmotor, China Longyuan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM