Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market continues in an upward trend after breaking resistance at 27100 last month.  The next resistance level is 28000.  Southbound flows have accelerated over the last week. </li>
<li>The energy, conglomerates, and property sectors outperformed the materials sector in 2026.  Momentum and value have been the top factors for performance YTD.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-sanhua-intelligent-controls-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45277:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK)</a> was initiated with OUTPERFORM at Shenwan Hongyuan Research.  The manufacturer of air-conditioning and refrigeration components has expanded into energy storage, automotive thermal management, and robotics.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market continues in an upward trend after breaking resistance at 27100 last month.  The next resistance level is 28000.  Southbound flows have accelerated over the last week. 
The energy, conglomerates, and property sectors outperformed the materials sector in 2026.  Momentum and value have been the top factors for performance YTD.

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) was initiated with OUTPERFORM at Shenwan Hongyuan Research.  The manufacturer of air-conditioning and refrigeration components has expanded into energy storage, automotive thermal management, and robotics.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (February 10)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Supportive policies from central and local governments on the development of the hydrogen energy industry have boosted the share prices of the sector (up 12.3% YTD).</li>
<li>Inner Mongolia has eased regulations on electrolysis water hydrogen production projects while Shandong has waived hydrogen-powered vehicle tolls on highways. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-sinohytec-co-ltd-57df3cd9-bd23-4f74-899b-d589f67fa85f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36866:1" rel="noopener">Beijing SinoHytec (2402 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weichai-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12508:1" rel="noopener">Weichai Power (2338 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongyue-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20429:1" rel="noopener">Dongyue Group (189 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric (3899 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> have recorded good progress in hydrogen business.</li>
</ul>


Supportive policies from central and local governments on the development of the hydrogen energy industry have boosted the share prices of the sector (up 12.3% YTD).
Inner Mongolia has eased regulations on electrolysis water hydrogen production projects while Shandong has waived hydrogen-powered vehicle tolls on highways. 

Beijing SinoHytec (2402 HK), Weichai Power (2338 HK), Dongyue Group (189 HK), CIMC Enric (3899 HK), and Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) have recorded good progress in hydrogen business.


China's Hydrogen Economy: Re-Igniting Interests

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the announcement of the changes in June, we forecast 5 potential constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers are estimated to trade between 0.05 to 0.65 days of ADV in the forecast changes.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 2 months and the recent pullback offers an entry point into the implementation trade.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the announcement of the changes in June, we forecast 5 potential constituent changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK). 
Passive trackers are estimated to trade between 0.05 to 0.65 days of ADV in the forecast changes.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 2 months and the recent pullback offers an entry point into the implementation trade.


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes in June as the AI-Driven Churn Continues

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> ETF in March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and need to sell between 0.4-1.2x ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>Short interest is highest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">ZTE Corp (763 HK)</a> (as a percentage of float) and in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)</a> (in terms of days of ADV to cover).</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and need to sell between 0.4-1.2x ADV in the deletes.
Short interest is highest in ZTE Corp (763 HK) (as a percentage of float) and in China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK) (in terms of days of ADV to cover).


FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in March

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Chongqing Afari Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Afari is seeking to raise at least USD 100m through an A+H listing. CICC is the sole sponsor.</li>
<li>We look at the company's core segments: new energy vehicles and motorcycle exports.</li>
<li>We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's fair value based on A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


Afari is seeking to raise at least USD 100m through an A+H listing. CICC is the sole sponsor.
We look at the company's core segments: new energy vehicles and motorcycle exports.
We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's fair value based on A-H premium.


Afari (千里科技) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thought

China

Weichai Power Co., Ltd. specializes in the research and development, manufacturing and sales of vehicles and parts. The Company produces engines, heavy vehicles, light vehicles, construction machinery, hydraulic products, automotive electronics, and related parts. Weichai Power markets its products across worldwide.

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Weichai Power (000338 CH)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (February 10)

Hong Kong market continues in an upward trend after breaking resistance at 27100 last month. The next resistance level is 28000. Southbound flows...

David Mudd

China's Hydrogen Economy: Re-Igniting Interests

Sichuan province held "the conference on further promoting the development and promotion of the entire green hydrogen industry chain" in the last...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes in June as the AI-Driven Churn Continues

There could be 5 changes in June as the AI theme rolls on and beneficiaries replace old economy stocks. The recent pullback after the earlier...

Brian Freitas

FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in March

There could be 2 constituent changes for the FXI ETF in March. Passive trackers will need to buy 0.6-0.8x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.4-1.2x...

Brian Freitas

Afari (千里科技) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thought

Afari is seeking to raise at least USD 100m in an A+H listing. In this note, we look at the company's business, its industry context and provide...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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