Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha &amp; Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we'll take it.</li>
<li>That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.</li>
<li>What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It's worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It's good.</li>
</ul>


In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha &amp; Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we'll take it.
That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It's worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It's good.


Tsuruha (3391) - Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio - Pounding the Table

David Blennerhassett

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed this week: CC Capital's NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed this week: CC Capital's NBIO for Insignia Financial (IFL AU). 
Key updates/news took place on: Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK), and Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Insignia Financial, Arcadium, CPMC, GAPack, Haitong Sec., Shinko Electric

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> may merge quicker than expected. Meaning a one-year "guess the price" ratio. Expect Tsuruha to gain against Welcia from here.</li>
<li>PUSUs exist in Hong Kong. In its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>, XJF should sound out the SFC to put Bi/Hong on notice. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)</a> effectively ticks off another pre-con. This transaction continues to trade too wide to terms. </li>
</ul>



Tsuruha (3391 JP) and Welcia (3141 JP) may merge quicker than expected. Meaning a one-year "guess the price" ratio. Expect Tsuruha to gain against Welcia from here.
PUSUs exist in Hong Kong. In its bid for GAPack (468 HK), XJF should sound out the SFC to put Bi/Hong on notice. 

Canvest Environmental (1381 HK) effectively ticks off another pre-con. This transaction continues to trade too wide to terms. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

<ul>
<li>In Feb-24, Aeon (8267) agreed with Oasis Management to buy its stake in Tsuruha Holdings (3391) and Tsuruha and Welcia Holdings (3141) would discuss a merger, details decided by end-2027.</li>
<li>On Saturday 27 December, a Jiji article said the two would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. That reason sounds wrong.</li>
<li>The language of the articles is odd but we have to take it at face value. That means we look to what might happen between here and there.</li>
</ul>


In Feb-24, Aeon (8267) agreed with Oasis Management to buy its stake in Tsuruha Holdings (3391) and Tsuruha and Welcia Holdings (3141) would discuss a merger, details decided by end-2027.
On Saturday 27 December, a Jiji article said the two would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. That reason sounds wrong.
The language of the articles is odd but we have to take it at face value. That means we look to what might happen between here and there.


Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) To Move UP Merger to End-2025; Makes It TWO Trades in 18mos?

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Post-Covid, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> began to deliver real profit growth but 1H2024 showed it cannot rest on its laurels. </li>
<li>While it’ll be happy not to be worrying about a takeover bid like its rival, Seven &amp; I, it still doesn’t have a profit machine similar to Seven Eleven Japan.</li>
<li>Welcia helps and so does expanding e-commerce but there is still plenty of room for cutting overhead.</li>
</ul>


Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) began to deliver real profit growth but 1H2024 showed it cannot rest on its laurels. 
While it’ll be happy not to be worrying about a takeover bid like its rival, Seven &amp; I, it still doesn’t have a profit machine similar to Seven Eleven Japan.
Welcia helps and so does expanding e-commerce but there is still plenty of room for cutting overhead.


Japan

WELCIA HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. is a holding company established through a merger of Welcia Kanto and Takada Pharmacy.  The Group mainly operates drug chain stores which sell medicines, health foods, cosmetics, nursery items and daily necessity goods.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)

Tsuruha (3391) - Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio - Pounding the Table

Tsuruha and Welcia are expected to merge next year after determining their integration plan and merger ratio by end-2025. The fundamentals (PER, EV...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Insignia Financial, Arcadium, CPMC, GAPack, Haitong Sec., Shinko Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) To Move UP Merger to End-2025; Makes It TWO Trades in 18mos?

Over the weekend, Japanese media outlets reported that Tsuruha and Welcia would advance merger plans by 2 years, merging as early as end-2025,...

Travis Lundy

Aeon (8267JP): Sales Up, Profit Down

Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tsuruha (3391) - Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio - Pounding the Table

Tsuruha and Welcia are expected to merge next year after determining their integration plan and merger ratio by end-2025. The fundamentals (PER, EV...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Insignia Financial, Arcadium, CPMC, GAPack, Haitong Sec., Shinko Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) To Move UP Merger to End-2025; Makes It TWO Trades in 18mos?

Over the weekend, Japanese media outlets reported that Tsuruha and Welcia would advance merger plans by 2 years, merging as early as end-2025,...

Travis Lundy

Aeon (8267JP): Sales Up, Profit Down

​Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Michael Causton

Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...