IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a> is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC.</p><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$17.20-19.80 per share, Nayuki will have a market cap of HK$29,500.2-33,959.5 million ($3.8-4.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$4,521.3 million ($582 million). </p></div><div>
<p>Five cornerstone investors will purchase $155 million worth of the offer shares (25.25% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are UBS Asset Management, China Universal Asset Management, GF Fund, China Southern Asset Management and CCB International. </p>
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<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-initiation-a-new-leaf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48532" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf</a>, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-drinking-habits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52873" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits</a>, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Based on our forecasts, Nayuki is attractively valued to its peer group for its forecasted earnings growth i.e. on a PEG basis. Overall, we are inclined to participate at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation of HK$19.49 per share.</p></div>
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Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC.At the proposed IPO price range of HK$17.20-19.80 per share, Nayuki will have a market cap of HK$29,500.2-33,959.5 million ($3.8-4.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$4,521.3 million ($582 million). 
Five cornerstone investors will purchase $155 million worth of the offer shares (25.25% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are UBS Asset Management, China Universal Asset Management, GF Fund, China Southern Asset Management and CCB International. 

In Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market. In Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play.
Based on our forecasts, Nayuki is attractively valued to its peer group for its forecasted earnings growth i.e. on a PEG basis. Overall, we are inclined to participate at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation of HK$19.49 per share.




Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our outlook remains cautious as we continue to expect heightened volatility and a potential retest of the February 2018 lows over the next several weeks. Near-term we are monitoring for S&amp;P 500 support near 2,600 (i.e., the October low) and resistance near 2,817 or the 100- and 50-day moving averages. In today’s report we outline our current concerns along with developments that would cause us to become more constructive on the market. We also highlight attractive set ups within the Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care Sectors.</p>

Our outlook remains cautious as we continue to expect heightened volatility and a potential retest of the February 2018 lows over the next several weeks. Near-term we are monitoring for S&amp;P 500 support near 2,600 (i.e., the October low) and resistance near 2,817 or the 100- and 50-day moving averages. In today’s report we outline our current concerns along with developments that would cause us to become more constructive on the market. We also highlight attractive set ups within the Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Retest of October Lows Underway; Upgrading Financials

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Uber Technologies  / Equity Capital Markets

<p>In publishing this piece we hope to achieve <strong>four broad objectives</strong>:</p>
<ol>
<li>To define and estimate the size and potential medium-term growth of the on-demand food delivery (FD) sector in the US.</li>
<li>To identify and describe the main players in the US on-demand FD sector and to understand each player’s business model (and the financial results each model generates).</li>
<li>To point out some of the challenges facing incumbents and new market entrants like Uber Eats.</li>
<li>Finally, to show interested readers how Uber Eats fits into parent Uber Technologies, and how it may contribute to the parent company's valuation.</li>
</ol>
<p>This is the second note in a series about the expected 2019 IPO of global ride-hailing giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/430" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1">Uber Technologies (0084207D US)</a>. If you have not done so already, please check out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/803" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:803">Valerie Law, CFA</a>'s overview, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/uber-ipo-preview-its-sprawling-empire-and-battle-lines-part-1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25201">Uber IPO Preview: Its Sprawling Empire and Battle Lines (Part 1)</a>. </p>

In publishing this piece we hope to achieve four broad objectives:

To define and estimate the size and potential medium-term growth of the on-demand food delivery (FD) sector in the US.
To identify and describe the main players in the US on-demand FD sector and to understand each player’s business model (and the financial results each model generates).
To point out some of the challenges facing incumbents and new market entrants like Uber Eats.
Finally, to show interested readers how Uber Eats fits into parent Uber Technologies, and how it may contribute to the parent company's valuation.

This is the second note in a series about the expected 2019 IPO of global ride-hailing giant Uber Technologies (0084207D US). If you have not done so already, please check out Valerie Law, CFA's overview, Uber IPO Preview: Its Sprawling Empire and Battle Lines (Part 1). 

Uber IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Uber Eats Has Become a Material Part of Uber (Part 2)

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class=""><li>Fast food grew by 4% in current value terms to reach USD247.1 billion in 2017, whilst transaction volumes are up 1%, with outlet numbers rising at a similar rate to reach 273,325.</li><li>Mobile ordering and delivery helped reach customers more conveniently, whilst price pressures increase competition.</li><li>Chained Latin American fast food sees the strongest current value growth of 7% in 2017.</li><li>Few changes are seen in the rankings, as McDonald’s remained the leader in fast food with a 15% value share in 2017.</li><li>Fast food is expected to see a value CAGR of 2% at constant 2017 prices in the forecast period, whilst transaction volumes and outlet numbers are set to see CAGRs of 1%.</li></ul>

Fast food grew by 4% in current value terms to reach USD247.1 billion in 2017, whilst transaction volumes are up 1%, with outlet numbers rising at a similar rate to reach 273,325.Mobile ordering and delivery helped reach customers more conveniently, whilst price pressures increase competition.Chained Latin American fast food sees the strongest current value growth of 7% in 2017.Few changes are seen in the rankings, as McDonald’s remained the leader in fast food with a 15% value share in 2017.Fast food is expected to see a value CAGR of 2% at constant 2017 prices in the forecast period, whilst transaction volumes and outlet numbers are set to see CAGRs of 1%.

United States

The Wendy's Company operates fast-food restaurants. The Company owns, operates, and franchises fast-food restaurants located throughout countries that include the United States, Singapore, the Middle East and North Africa, the Russian Federation, the Eastern Caribbean, Argentina, the Philippines and Japan.

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Wendy's Co/The (WEN US)

Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

We are inclined to participate at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation of HK$19.49...

Arun George

U.S. Equity Strategy: Retest of October Lows Underway; Upgrading Financials

Our outlook remains cautious as we continue to expect heightened volatility and a potential retest of the February 2018 lows over the next several...

Vermilion Research

Uber IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Uber Eats Has Become a Material Part of Uber (Part 2)

In publishing this piece we hope to achieve four broad objectives: To define and estimate the size and potential medium-term growth of the...

Daniel Hellberg

Sector Capsule: Fast Food in the US

Fast food grew by 4% in current value terms to reach USD247.1 billion in 2017, whilst transaction volumes are up 1%, with outlet numbers rising at...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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