Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron Technology posted revenues of 7.7 billion for its most recent quarter, down 7% Q/Q but up 33% Y/Y with a 47% gross margin</li>
<li>The company provided a positive outlook for the upcoming quarter and for its future in general</li>
<li>This is in stark contrast with recent forecasts based on a big decline in spot market DRAM and NAND flash prices.  We show spot prices to be unreliable predictors.</li>
</ul>


Micron Technology posted revenues of 7.7 billion for its most recent quarter, down 7% Q/Q but up 33% Y/Y with a 47% gross margin
The company provided a positive outlook for the upcoming quarter and for its future in general
This is in stark contrast with recent forecasts based on a big decline in spot market DRAM and NAND flash prices.  We show spot prices to be unreliable predictors.


Micron Bullish After Strong Showing, Counter to Certain Forecasts

<ul>
<li>Privately-Held Kioxia is ripe for an IPO, but there's been no announcement</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the company's end market, NAND flash chips, is setting new revenue records</li>
<li>Bain &amp; Company may miss an important window by waiting too long to go public</li>
</ul>


Privately-Held Kioxia is ripe for an IPO, but there's been no announcement
Meanwhile, the company's end market, NAND flash chips, is setting new revenue records
Bain &amp; Company may miss an important window by waiting too long to go public


SK hynix posted record revenues in 3Q21 despite lackluster performance from its DRAM business.  This provides the possibility that 4Q21 earnings, with continuing NAND flash success and the recovery of lost DRAM revenues, could be a stellar quarter for the company.

SK hynix posted record revenues in 3Q21 despite lackluster performance from its DRAM business.  This provides the possibility that 4Q21 earnings, with continuing NAND flash success and the recovery of lost DRAM revenues, could be a stellar quarter for the company.

SK Hynix: Record Revenues, Promising Future

Micron Technology just announced near-record revenues and strong earnings, but cautioned that the current quarter will come in lower than the most recent quarter.  Overall, the company expects to see a record fiscal 2022, owing partly to a market that will benefit all players, and partly to Micron's new leadership in process technologies.

Micron Technology just announced near-record revenues and strong earnings, but cautioned that the current quarter will come in lower than the most recent quarter.  Overall, the company expects to see a record fiscal 2022, owing partly to a market that will benefit all players, and partly to Micron's new leadership in process technologies.

Micron Posts 2nd-Best-Ever Quarter.  Outlook Positive

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

<h2>
Examining key questions from the Kioxia &amp; PE news flow
</h2>In our July 2021 note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-corp-6502-jp-chapter-5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54649" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Chapter 5: Assessing the Next Move</a> we stated that one of the key events to be expected as early as September 2021, was the IPO of the firms 40% stake in Kioxia Holdings Corporation (Kioxia). Kioxia was due to be listed in 2020, but did not occur due to “the coronavirus pandemic and market volatility.” At the time of pulling the IPO in 2020, Toshiba was expecting a valuation of around $16 billion. Several media sources, including Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, have alluded to the fact that a potential merger of Kioxia with Western Digital to the value of US$20bn may be on the cards. They have cited a possible transaction using shares as opposed to cash or a combination. This is news that shareholders and in particular the activist shareholders have wanted to hear for some time and a transaction that is expected to be welcomed. We examine several of the key questions surrounding the Kioxia news and what is next for Toshiba - including the potential for a full PE bid.


Examining key questions from the Kioxia &amp; PE news flow
In our July 2021 note Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Chapter 5: Assessing the Next Move we stated that one of the key events to be expected as early as September 2021, was the IPO of the firms 40% stake in Kioxia Holdings Corporation (Kioxia). Kioxia was due to be listed in 2020, but did not occur due to “the coronavirus pandemic and market volatility.” At the time of pulling the IPO in 2020, Toshiba was expecting a valuation of around $16 billion. Several media sources, including Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, have alluded to the fact that a potential merger of Kioxia with Western Digital to the value of US$20bn may be on the cards. They have cited a possible transaction using shares as opposed to cash or a combination. This is news that shareholders and in particular the activist shareholders have wanted to hear for some time and a transaction that is expected to be welcomed. We examine several of the key questions surrounding the Kioxia news and what is next for Toshiba - including the potential for a full PE bid. 

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Chapter 6: Potential for Value Creation

United States

Western Digital Corporation is a global provider of solutions for the collection, storage, management, protection and use of digital content, including audio and video. The Company's products include hard drives, solid-state drives, and home entertainment and networking products.

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Western Digital (WDC US)

Micron Bullish After Strong Showing, Counter to Certain Forecasts

Micron announced its earnings December 21. After a strong quarter the company has an outlook for continuing strength. Why is this when certain...

Jim Handy

Will Kioxia IPO Miss Its Window?

Privately-held Kioxia has been hinting at an IPO for a year, and its end market has just set a record. Can the company afford to delay any longer,...

Jim Handy

SK Hynix: Record Revenues, Promising Future

Despite stumbling in DRAM, SK hynix posted record revenues, and seems poised to do even better in 4Q21. NAND flash is finally making important...

Jim Handy

Micron Posts 2nd-Best-Ever Quarter. Outlook Positive

While Micron announced its second-highest quarter ever, the outlook for the following quarter is down. Still the CEO expects a banner fiscal...

Jim Handy

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Chapter 6: Potential for Value Creation

@Toshiba (6502.JP) activists might applaud a Wester Digital Merger, but this is just one alternative - PE bids still viable. Perhaps value...

David Lepper

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