HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With US inflation figures higher than expectations, there is an increase in risk that the Fed's next move may be a hike.  Some HSI constituents are set to benefit.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK),</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> have significant USD net cash position and will be gainers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> have large China operations but they are net long on USD balance and this will make them beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


With US inflation figures higher than expectations, there is an increase in risk that the Fed's next move may be a hike.  Some HSI constituents are set to benefit.

Orient Overseas International (316 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) have significant USD net cash position and will be gainers.

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) and Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) have large China operations but they are net long on USD balance and this will make them beneficiaries.


HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KTX's multiple regression analysis on the potential impact of the accelerating Containerized Freight Index on US inflation suggests that, given the current high index level, there is risk of US inflation mounting to +4.26% YoY in the next six months.</li><li>Given that this figure is higher than the policy interest rate of 5.5% by +0.7%, the Fed may be reluctant to cut the fed funds rate.</li><li>These factors pose additional risks, prompting investors to factor in a higher market risk premium (MRP) in the event of defaults on such debentures, ultimately exerting downward pressure on the SET's valuation.</li></ul>

KTX's multiple regression analysis on the potential impact of the accelerating Containerized Freight Index on US inflation suggests that, given the current high index level, there is risk of US inflation mounting to +4.26% YoY in the next six months.Given that this figure is higher than the policy interest rate of 5.5% by +0.7%, the Fed may be reluctant to cut the fed funds rate.These factors pose additional risks, prompting investors to factor in a higher market risk premium (MRP) in the event of defaults on such debentures, ultimately exerting downward pressure on the SET's valuation.

SET Facing Greater Pressure from External Risks

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,370/1,366 points and the resistance at 1,388/1,392 points, as it is still moving in a downward direction in accordance with the rounding-top pattern.</li><li>The Thai stock market has undergone a correction, prompting a 9 bps increase in the MRP to 4.4% due to external pressures.</li><li>As a result, the 12M SET Index movement is now anticipated in a lower range of 1,353-1,484 points (compared to the previous range of 1,378-1,504 points).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,370/1,366 points and the resistance at 1,388/1,392 points, as it is still moving in a downward direction in accordance with the rounding-top pattern.The Thai stock market has undergone a correction, prompting a 9 bps increase in the MRP to 4.4% due to external pressures.As a result, the 12M SET Index movement is now anticipated in a lower range of 1,353-1,484 points (compared to the previous range of 1,378-1,504 points).

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. January 22, 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>COP27, the 27th annual United Nations international conference on climate change, starts on 6 November and runs through 18 November – in the Egyptian coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh.</li>
<li>Whereas climate mitigation and clean energy were the main focus of prior conferences, climate adaptation and sustainable agriculture and food are top priorities for the COP26 Presidency.</li>
<li>Therefore, agriculture and food stocks are poised to be the most impacted on a relative basis by COP27 proceedings and outcomes. This Insight considers the potential "winners and losers."</li>
</ul>


COP27, the 27th annual United Nations international conference on climate change, starts on 6 November and runs through 18 November – in the Egyptian coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh.
Whereas climate mitigation and clean energy were the main focus of prior conferences, climate adaptation and sustainable agriculture and food are top priorities for the COP26 Presidency.
Therefore, agriculture and food stocks are poised to be the most impacted on a relative basis by COP27 proceedings and outcomes. This Insight considers the potential "winners and losers."


COP27: Agriculture and Food Stocks Likely to Be Most Affected by Conference Talks

Hong Kong

WH Group is the world's largest pork company, operating across China, the US, and Europe. It integrates hog production, slaughtering, and the processing and distribution of packaged meats and fresh pork. The company's core business includes a wide range of packaged meat products and fresh pork. Headquartered in Hong Kong, the company traces its origins back to 1958.

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WH Group (288 HK)

HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SET Facing Greater Pressure from External Risks

KTX's multiple regression analysis on the potential impact of the accelerating Containerized Freight Index on US inflation suggests that, given...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. January 22, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,370/1,366 points and the resistance at 1,388/1,392 points, as...

Krungthai XSpring

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

COP27: Agriculture and Food Stocks Likely to Be Most Affected by Conference Talks

COP27 starts next week, and sustainable agriculture/food is at the top of the agenda. That could mean agriculture stocks are the most impacted by...

Kyle Rudden

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HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

​HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SET Facing Greater Pressure from External Risks

KTX's multiple regression analysis on the potential impact of the accelerating Containerized Freight Index on US inflation suggests that, given...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. January 22, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,370/1,366 points and the resistance at 1,388/1,392 points, as...

Krungthai XSpring

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

COP27: Agriculture and Food Stocks Likely to Be Most Affected by Conference Talks

COP27 starts next week, and sustainable agriculture/food is at the top of the agenda. That could mean agriculture stocks are the most impacted by...

Kyle Rudden

HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...