Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The slide in the stock price over the last few months could see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> deleted from a global index at the May rebalance.</li>
<li>The impact of the index deletion will be large in terms of ADV. Shorts have been increasing but positioning appears to be far smaller than the estimated passive selling.</li>
<li>The stock could drop further over the next week or two, but value buyers could then emerge as the stock trades cheaper than a lot of its peers.</li>
</ul>


The slide in the stock price over the last few months could see Wharf Holdings (4 HK) deleted from a global index at the May rebalance.
The impact of the index deletion will be large in terms of ADV. Shorts have been increasing but positioning appears to be far smaller than the estimated passive selling.
The stock could drop further over the next week or two, but value buyers could then emerge as the stock trades cheaper than a lot of its peers.


Wharf Holdings (4 HK): Increased Shorts; Small Positioning for The (Potential) Global Index Deletion

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is an increasing likelihood that the duty-free quota of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will rise to Rmb30,000 from Rmb5,000. This will benefit many retail-related sectors.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener">Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK)</a> is the best play among jewellery retailers given it has 65% of revenue from Hong Kong. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sa-sa-international-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20143:1" rel="noopener">Sa Sa International (178 HK)</a> is the cosmetics play.</li>
<li>Property investors including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hysan-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14169:1" rel="noopener">Hysan Development Co (14 HK)</a> will gain from the shopping malls in major tourist areas in Hong Kong.</li>
</ul>


There is an increasing likelihood that the duty-free quota of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will rise to Rmb30,000 from Rmb5,000. This will benefit many retail-related sectors.

Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK) is the best play among jewellery retailers given it has 65% of revenue from Hong Kong. Sa Sa International (178 HK) is the cosmetics play.
Property investors including Wharf Holdings (4 HK) and Hysan Development Co (14 HK) will gain from the shopping malls in major tourist areas in Hong Kong.


Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from the Foo Family, the largest shareholder, at HK$8.50 (HK$7.50 cash + HK$1.00 special dividend), a 62.8% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (&lt;10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate facilitates the vote. </li>
</ul>



Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Foo Family, the largest shareholder, at HK$8.50 (HK$7.50 cash + HK$1.00 special dividend), a 62.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (&lt;10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate facilitates the vote. 


Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong new home sales (March 2026, units sold) were +24% 12MMA y/y, secondary transactions at +26%.</li>
<li>Secondary price growth y/y accelerated to +9.8% for the all-developments index, +10.4% for select developments.</li>
<li>Inventory data (for December; March data not released yet) continues to show improvements. </li>
</ul>


Hong Kong new home sales (March 2026, units sold) were +24% 12MMA y/y, secondary transactions at +26%.
Secondary price growth y/y accelerated to +9.8% for the all-developments index, +10.4% for select developments.
Inventory data (for December; March data not released yet) continues to show improvements. 


Hong Kong Property: The Housing Market Rebound In Numbers And Charts - March 2026 Data

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul><li>KKR is strategically investing in Japan's real estate sector amid rising energy costs and market challenges.</li><li>Mapletree is set to close its $1.3 billion student housing fund due to underwhelming performance metrics.</li><li>In Vietnam, BW Industrial aims to develop 700MW in data centers, while Sun Hung Kai Properties secures $2.6 billion refinancing.</li></ul>

KKR is strategically investing in Japan's real estate sector amid rising energy costs and market challenges.Mapletree is set to close its $1.3 billion student housing fund due to underwhelming performance metrics.In Vietnam, BW Industrial aims to develop 700MW in data centers, while Sun Hung Kai Properties secures $2.6 billion refinancing.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (27-Mar-2026): KKR invests in Japan real estate amid risks.

Hong Kong

Wharf (Holdings) Limited is a Hong Kong-based investment holding company with core businesses spanning investment properties, development properties, and hotels in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company also engages in logistics infrastructure, including container terminal operations and air cargo services. It was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Wharf (4 HK)

Wharf Holdings (4 HK): Increased Shorts; Small Positioning for The (Potential) Global Index Deletion

Wharf Holdings could be deleted from a global index in May. The stock has underperformed peers and trades cheaper. Shorts have increased and...

Brian Freitas

Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate...

Arun George

Hong Kong Property: The Housing Market Rebound In Numbers And Charts - March 2026 Data

Hong Kong new home sales and secondary transactions saw strong growth in March 2026, with secondary prices also rising significantly. Inventory...

Robert Ciemniak

Asia Real Estate Tracker (27-Mar-2026): KKR invests in Japan real estate amid risks.

KKR invests in Japan's real estate amid rising energy costs, while Mapletree closes its student housing fund, Centaline buys a hotel, and BW...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Wharf Holdings (4 HK): Increased Shorts; Small Positioning for The (Potential) Global Index Deletion

Wharf Holdings could be deleted from a global index in May. The stock has underperformed peers and trades cheaper. Shorts have increased and...

Brian Freitas

Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

​Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate...

Arun George

Hong Kong Property: The Housing Market Rebound In Numbers And Charts - March 2026 Data

​Hong Kong new home sales and secondary transactions saw strong growth in March 2026, with secondary prices also rising significantly. Inventory...

Robert Ciemniak

Asia Real Estate Tracker (27-Mar-2026): KKR invests in Japan real estate amid risks.

KKR invests in Japan's real estate amid rising energy costs, while Mapletree closes its student housing fund, Centaline buys a hotel, and BW...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Hong Kong new home sales and secondary transactions saw strong growth in March 2026, with secondary prices also rising significantly. Inventory...