Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.</li><li>Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?</li><li>But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest</li></ul>

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest

Positioning Watch:  Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due to higher local fuel and food prices.</li><li>On MoM basis, CPI inflation was up 2.0% in Sep 2023 as compared to 1.7% in Aug 2023 and last 3-month average of 1.6%.</li><li>This takes 1QFY24 average inflation to 29.04% compared to 25.11% in 1QFY23.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due to higher local fuel and food prices.On MoM basis, CPI inflation was up 2.0% in Sep 2023 as compared to 1.7% in Aug 2023 and last 3-month average of 1.6%.This takes 1QFY24 average inflation to 29.04% compared to 25.11% in 1QFY23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights, DBX Commodities Limited

DBX Commodities

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights

DBX Commodities Limited

DBX provides the most accurate and comprehensive real-time data and insights for dry bulk commodities based on satellite imagery and intelligence.

Alex CLAUDE, an expert in commodity tech with 15 years experience in the commodity trading industry, teamed up with the Signal Group in 2020 and started DBX. 

Our product is the result of a unique combination of domain and technological expertise. We offer the most comprehensive, accurate and deepest research analytics of the dry bulk commodity market: coal, iron ore, alumina, bauxite, sugar, wheat, soybeans and soymeal.

Commodities

<ul><li>Wheat: Futures at $4.90/bushel (lowest since mid-2020), reflecting ample global supply and subdued demand. U.S. production is projected to rise by 2% in 2025, though exports are expected to struggle against strong Russian competition.</li><li>Corn: Prices fell from $4.82/bu in April to $4.46/bu in May, driven by robust U.S. planting and higher production estimates from Brazil and Argentina. Despite the dip, USDA's forecast of the lowest U.S. ending stocks in three years underscores tightening supply.</li><li>Soybeans: Climbed to $10.80/bushel in early May, the highest since July 2024, supported by U.S.-China tariff adjustments and solid Chinese demand for South American soy.</li></ul>

Wheat: Futures at $4.90/bushel (lowest since mid-2020), reflecting ample global supply and subdued demand. U.S. production is projected to rise by 2% in 2025, though exports are expected to struggle against strong Russian competition.Corn: Prices fell from $4.82/bu in April to $4.46/bu in May, driven by robust U.S. planting and higher production estimates from Brazil and Argentina. Despite the dip, USDA's forecast of the lowest U.S. ending stocks in three years underscores tightening supply.Soybeans: Climbed to $10.80/bushel in early May, the highest since July 2024, supported by U.S.-China tariff adjustments and solid Chinese demand for South American soy.

Agricultural Flows Monitor: May 2025 Issue

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Wheat prices are experiencing a significant resurgence due to extreme weather events and global supply-demand imbalances. Price is 22% higher over the past month. </li>
<li>May WASDE report indicates a positive outlook for global wheat production despite recent weather challenges, suggesting potential underestimations in global supply disruptions. </li>
<li>The anticipated shift to La Niña, coupled with historically low stocks-to-use ratios, threatens global wheat supply, heightening the potential for increased market volatility and price spikes.</li>
</ul>


Wheat prices are experiencing a significant resurgence due to extreme weather events and global supply-demand imbalances. Price is 22% higher over the past month. 
May WASDE report indicates a positive outlook for global wheat production despite recent weather challenges, suggesting potential underestimations in global supply disruptions. 
The anticipated shift to La Niña, coupled with historically low stocks-to-use ratios, threatens global wheat supply, heightening the potential for increased market volatility and price spikes.


Harvest Headwinds: Extreme Weather and Wheat's Price Surge

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

<ul><li>Global wheat prices have been defying expectations and have continued on a downward trend since the start of 2024</li><li>Russia is expected to have a high wheat production of over 90 million tons in 2024 due to favorable growing conditions</li><li>Ukrainian wheat exports are expected to improve with better logistics and an estimated production of nearly 20.5 million tons in the 2024-25 season</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global wheat prices have been defying expectations and have continued on a downward trend since the start of 2024Russia is expected to have a high wheat production of over 90 million tons in 2024 due to favorable growing conditionsUkrainian wheat exports are expected to improve with better logistics and an estimated production of nearly 20.5 million tons in the 2024-25 seasonThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Lower prices and uncertain demand: navigating choppy waves of wheat markets in 2024

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Wheat (W A COMDTY)

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due...

Topline Securities

Agricultural Flows Monitor: May 2025 Issue

Wheat: Futures at $4.90/bushel (lowest since mid-2020), reflecting ample global supply and subdued demand. U.S. production is projected to rise by...

DBX Commodities

Harvest Headwinds: Extreme Weather and Wheat's Price Surge

Global wheat prices are surging due to extreme weather and supply-demand imbalances, with potential for further volatility and price spikes as La...

Mint Finance

Lower prices and uncertain demand: navigating choppy waves of wheat markets in 2024

Ukrainian wheat exports are expected to improve with better logistics and an estimated production of nearly 20.5 million tons in the 2024-25 season

Commodities Focus

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due...

Topline Securities

Agricultural Flows Monitor: May 2025 Issue

Wheat: Futures at $4.90/bushel (lowest since mid-2020), reflecting ample global supply and subdued demand. U.S. production is projected to rise by...

DBX Commodities

Harvest Headwinds: Extreme Weather and Wheat's Price Surge

​Global wheat prices are surging due to extreme weather and supply-demand imbalances, with potential for further volatility and price spikes as La...

Mint Finance

Lower prices and uncertain demand: navigating choppy waves of wheat markets in 2024

Ukrainian wheat exports are expected to improve with better logistics and an estimated production of nearly 20.5 million tons in the 2024-25 season

Commodities Focus

Global wheat prices are surging due to extreme weather and supply-demand imbalances, with potential for further volatility and price spikes as La...