Energy Expert

Thierry Bros, PhD

Thierrybros.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could benefit from decorrelation of energy prices between the UK and the EU?</strong></p><p><em>Following the policy paper " <a href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/brexits-impact-gas-markets-brext-security-supply-uk-ireland/" target="_blank">Brexit's impact on gas markets: Brexit and security of supply for the UK and Ireland</a>" just published by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, this insight looks at the Brexit's impact on energy stocks.</em></p><p>As the outcome of Brexit is still unknown, we can only draft…</p>

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could benefit from decorrelation of energy prices between the UK and the EU?Following the policy paper " Brexit's impact on gas markets: Brexit and security of supply for the UK and Ireland" just published by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, this insight looks at the Brexit's impact on energy stocks.As the outcome of Brexit is still unknown, we can only draft…

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 14th April, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal (YAL AU)</a></strong> <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260414/pdf/06yh1vf2g4rt14.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had entered into a transaction to acquire a majority stake in the Kestrel coal mine, located in Queensland, for "up to" US$2.4bn. </li>
<li>Yancoal intends to acquire the 80% stake held by EMR Capital and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ)</a></strong> JV. Mitsui will maintain its 20% stake. </li>
<li>80% of Kestrel was previously held by <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a></strong>, and sold for A$2.25bn in 2018. That transaction required FIRB approval. This transaction also requires FIRB signing off. </li>
</ul>


On the 14th April, Yancoal (YAL AU) announced it had entered into a transaction to acquire a majority stake in the Kestrel coal mine, located in Queensland, for "up to" US$2.4bn. 
Yancoal intends to acquire the 80% stake held by EMR Capital and Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) JV. Mitsui will maintain its 20% stake. 
80% of Kestrel was previously held by Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), and sold for A$2.25bn in 2018. That transaction required FIRB approval. This transaction also requires FIRB signing off. 


Yancoal (YAL AU) Retraces Post Kestrel Mine Deal

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. <strong>Data in this insight is up to 27th March, published ~9AM on the 2nd April</strong>.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "<strong>Diversified Metals &amp; Mining</strong>"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "<strong>Diversified Banks</strong>". <strong>Net shorts increased A$1.7bn week-on-week</strong>.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8570:1" rel="noopener">Nextdc (NXT AU)</a></strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8570:1" rel="noopener"></a>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flight-centre-travel-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7537:1" rel="noopener">Flight Centre Travel (FLT AU)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/web-travel-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17059:1" rel="noopener">WEB Travel  (WEB AU)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bapcor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8433:1" rel="noopener">Bapcor (BAP AU)</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisetech-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22669:1" rel="noopener">Wisetech Global (WTC AU)</a></strong>
</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 27th March, published ~9AM on the 2nd April.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Metals &amp; Mining"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Diversified Banks". Net shorts increased A$1.7bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: BHP (BHP AU), Nextdc (NXT AU), Flight Centre Travel (FLT AU), WEB Travel  (WEB AU), Bapcor (BAP AU), and Wisetech Global (WTC AU)



Aussie Shorts (27th Mar 2026): BHP, Nextdc, Flight Centre, WEB Travel, Bapcor, Wisetech Global

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong><em>The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors.</em></strong></p></div><p><strong><em> </em></strong></p><p>We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.</p><p>We see the following evidence in our analysis:</p><p> </p><ul><li><div class="content-highlight">The failure of some…</div></li></ul>

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors. We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: The failure of some…

<h2><strong>Summary points</strong></h2><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>The best the <em>market</em> can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight">
<strong>Financialisation of commodities is a big</strong>…</div></li>
</ul>

Summary points
1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.
Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.
Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.
The best the market can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.

Financialisation of commodities is a big…


Australia

Whitehaven Coal Limited mines and sells metallurgical and thermal coals to the global steel, power generation, and metallurgical industries.

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Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)

Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could...

Thierry Bros, PhD

Yancoal (YAL AU) Retraces Post Kestrel Mine Deal

Kestrel's already majority owned by foreigners and exports 100%. Perhaps behavioural remedies, at most, for FIRB, where possible, such that Yancoal...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts (27th Mar 2026): BHP, Nextdc, Flight Centre, WEB Travel, Bapcor, Wisetech Global

Net shorts increased A$1.7bn week-on-week. Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: BHP, Nextdc, Flight Centre Travel, WEB...

David Blennerhassett

Beware Impairments in EM and Asia

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for...

Mark Artherton

Oil After 50%: Where Now for Stocks?

Summary points 1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion. Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves...

Mark Artherton

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