Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

ESSA Industries Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the IDX30 Index, 6 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented on 31 January.</li>
<li>Largest passive inflows are expected to be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-esa-perkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14326:1" rel="noopener">Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the IDX30 Index, 6 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented on 31 January.
Largest passive inflows are expected to be on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) and Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation

<ul>
<li>End December was the end of the review cutoff for a lot of indices that will rebalance within the next couple of months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 12 January.</li>
<li>There were big outflows from Hong Kong and China focused ETFs led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


End December was the end of the review cutoff for a lot of indices that will rebalance within the next couple of months.

PEXA Group (PXA AU) replaces Pendal Group (PDL AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 12 January.
There were big outflows from Hong Kong and China focused ETFs led by Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) and Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK).


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

Bumi Resources Minerals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 30 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-esa-perkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14326:1" rel="noopener">Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saratoga-investama-sedaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13714:1" rel="noopener"> Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel (MTEL IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wijaya-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1877:1" rel="noopener">PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 30 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Potential adds are Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ), Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ), Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ), Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ) and Mitratel (MTEL IJ). 
Potential deletions are PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA IJ), Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ), Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) and HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ). 


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> completes 20 trading days today. Based on the average price over the period and the last close, the stock meets the Fast Entry criteria for IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 inclusion.</li>
<li>Using a free float of 66%, we estimate passive trackers buying 5.42bn shares (US$74m) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>. Announcement could come in a few days with implementation at month-end. </li>
<li>With the real float close to 4%, passive trackers will need to buy 11.6% of the real float and the stock could move higher in the short-term.</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) completes 20 trading days today. Based on the average price over the period and the last close, the stock meets the Fast Entry criteria for IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 inclusion.
Using a free float of 66%, we estimate passive trackers buying 5.42bn shares (US$74m) of GoTo (GOTO IJ). Announcement could come in a few days with implementation at month-end. 
With the real float close to 4%, passive trackers will need to buy 11.6% of the real float and the stock could move higher in the short-term.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia: Turning Tide with Index Inclusion?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>FY21 new contract above our estimate</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

FY21 new contract above our estimateContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ) - FY21 new contract above our estimate

Indonesia

Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk is an integrated engineering, procurement, construction (EPC), and investment company. It provides civil construction services, including roads, bridges, harbors, airports, and dams, along with building construction, energy and industrial plant development, and real estate. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 1960.

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Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ)

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